@BowTiedBroke Appreciate it! Really is opportunity everywhere. Lots of money to be made using Alibaba + Marketplace platform. Etsy makes it stupid easy though. Less hoops to jump through than Amazon imo
If I'd want to validate a startup in 2023 I would
- build a mockup
- open TikTok account
- make daily TikTok about it
- have Linktree link in bio
- add Stripe payment link to Linktre to pre-order: like $200 but early bird discount $50
Do this for 30 ideas
- see what sells most
Software estimates are one of the oldest lies we tell ourselves.
We all know they don't work, but pretend they mean something and later feel enraged when shit hits the fan.
I focused a big part of my undergrad on software estimation.
After graduating, I wrote plenty about the topic.
Then, I started working for a company where I spent years researching how to make better estimates. We sold multiple millions of dollars of software using the tools I built.
I read everything there's to read. I could recite Steve McConnel's "Software Estimation" book from top to bottom.
Here is the most important lesson I learned:
People can't estimate software. It doesn't matter who they are or how much experience they have.
Estimating software reliably is science fiction.
And the best part:
They will ask you to estimate something. They will tell you they understand it's not exact. They will promise they won't hold you accountable.
And then they will. They always do.
There are two solutions for this. Let's start with my recommendations for those who don't have a choice:
1. Remove "quick," "simple," "straightforward," "easy," and every similar word from your dictionary. Never use them. Don't let others use them when referring to your work.
2. Never volunteer an estimate. Everything you say will be used against you.
3. When forced, estimate work you know you can complete today. Always estimate with a range: "It will take me 2 - 4 hours."
4. Estimate anything you won't do today in days and weeks. Say, "I should finish that feature sometime this week." Do not estimate future work in hours.
But we all know your manager will force you to give an estimate. Here is what you should do:
1. Estimate how long you think it will take you to complete the task.
2. Multiply the number by 3. This will be the lower range of your estimate.
3. Double the lower range of the estimate. This will be the upper range.
Example: If you think something will take you 1 day of work, say "between 3 and 6 days."
Here is the funny part:
It won't take you between 3 - 6 days. This is as much bullshit as any other method you can think of.
The true solution for this problem:
Work for a company that doesn't care about estimates.
Here is probably the most useful GPT-4 prompt I've written.
Use it to you help make engineering decisions in unfamiliar territory:
---
You are an engineering wizard, experienced at solving complex problems across various disciplines. Your knowledge is both wide and deep. You are also a great communicator, giving very thoughtful and clear advice.
You do so in this format, thinking through the challenges you are facing, then proposing multiple solutions, then reviewing each solution, looking for issues or possible improvements, coming up with a possible new and better solution (you can combine ideas from the other solutions, bring in new ideas, etc.), then giving a final recommendation:
```
## Problem Overview
$problem_overview
## Challenges
$challenges
## Solution 1
$solution_1
## Solution 2
$solution_2
## Solution 3
$solution_3
## Analysis
### Solution 1 Analysis
$solution_1_analysis
### Solution 2 Analysis
$solution_2_analysis
### Solution 3 Analysis
$solution_3_analysis
## Additional Possible Solution
$additional_possible_solution
## Recommendation
$recommendation
```
Each section (Problem Overview, Challenges, Solution 1, Solution 2, Solution 3, Solution 1 Analysis, Solution 2 Analysis, Solution 3 Analysis, Additional Possible Solution, and Recommendation) should be incredibly thoughtful, comprising at a minimum, four sentences of thinking.
---
Tip: @ChromeDevTools can now override the content of Fetch/XHR requests! Great for mocking APIs without waiting on backend changes!
This and lots more in Chrome 117: https://t.co/kP0JrGfHlz
hilarious edge case:
my friend and her ex blocked each other’s profiles when they broke up
but
now they’re on speaking terms, want to unblock
but
Spotify has no blocklist, you can only unblock from their profile
but
since they blocked each other neither of them can do that
🧵 AI is going to nuke the bottom third of performers in jobs done on computers — even creative ones — in the next 24 months
White collar salaries are going to plummet to the average of the global work force & the speed at which the top performers can write prompts
It's crazy to me that a college student and a billionaire own basically the same phone and laptop.
For all the inequality in the world, access to tech in the developed world is a remarkably level playing field.
Wow. ChatGPT just got even more interesting.
Plugins now available, including one that allows ChatGPT to browse the Internet!
It's not just about writing poems and blog posts anymore. It's about DOING stuff.
Some of my favorite examples:
Pipedream is an underrated tool. Use the schedule trigger to run workflows in your @bubble app at specific times or set intervals and see what actually happened, if it ran successfully, get an email if it errored, etc.
Substantially better than Bubbles built in recurring flows.