Hirie

修行中

[ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA]

📌 Bitcoin

Bitcoin is sliding toward a year of losses, and this one comes without the usual chaos. No fraud, no implosion, just a quieter, more mature market learning that pain isn't always tied to panic
👉 https://t.co/blMxcoFA78

h/t @dailychartbook #btc $btc #bitcoin

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

HSBC model: OpenAI may need to raise at least $207B by 2030 even if users climb toward ~3B and revenue reaches about $214B in 2030.

HSBC is estimating roughly $792B in cloud rental costs through 2030.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

On an unrounded basis, the unemployment rate rose to 4.564% in November, up 12 bps from 4.440% in September.

Powell last week said the Fed thought its policy setting was one where the unemployment rate would stabilize or "only kick up one or two more tenths."

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

'K-Shaped' Economy? Core Retail Sales Surged In October https://t.co/AITwUKNmre

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

IS THERE AN AI BUBBLE? DEUTSCHE BANK SAYS YES — BUT MULTIPLE, AND STILL EARLY

Deutsche Bank’s central 2026 question: Is AI in a bubble?

The bank argues any bubble remains in its early stage, similar to dot-com after Greenspan’s 1996 warning, with years of gains still possible.

Today features two distinct bubbles:

🔸 Cash-rich Big Tech funding AI capex from profits.
🔸 Unprofitable frontier firms (mostly private) burning cash.

Current signals are green: range-bound earnings-driven valuations, cashflow-funded investment, scaling tech with falling costs.
Red flags to watch: circular financing, debt-fueled capex, tech hurdles, politics, supply constraints.

Conclusion: Reports of a single bursting bubble are exaggerated — for now.

[米金融ツイート和訳 @bei_wayaku]

米国の9月の貿易赤字（528億ドル）は2020年6月以来の最小となった。

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

USA Rare Earth Shares Jump After Accelerating Timeline For Commercial Production By Two Years https://t.co/ufJ9i27s6e

[朝倉智也(Tomoya Asakura) @tomoyaasakura]

ウォール街のアナリストは、歴史的な高いバリュエーションでも来年の米国株には依然として強気だ。S&P500は最大16％上昇との予想。今年もこのまま行けばS&P500は３年連続で二桁上昇となる。４年連続二桁上昇は、ITバブル期以外には存在しない。強気の継続か熱狂の終着点か。あなたは、どう読みますか。

[Commentary Donald J. Trump Posts From Truth Social @TrumpDailyPosts]

Donald J. Trump Truth Social Post 04:29 PM EST 12/08/25

I have informed President Xi, of China, that the United States will allow NVIDIA to ship its H200 products to approved customers in China, and other Countries, under conditions that allow for continued strong National Security. President Xi responded positively! $25% will be paid to the United States of America. This policy will support American Jobs, strengthen U.S. Manufacturing, and benefit American Taxpayers. The Biden Administration forced our Great Companies to spend BILLIONS OF DOLLARS building “degraded” products that nobody wanted, a terrible idea that slowed Innovation, and hurt the American Worker. That Era is OVER! We will protect National Security, create American Jobs, and keep America’s lead in AI. NVIDIA’s U.S. Customers are already moving forward with their incredible, highly advanced Blackwell chips, and soon, Rubin, neither of which are part of this deal. My Administration will always put America FIRST. The Department of Commerce is finalizing the details, and the same approach will apply to AMD, Intel, and other GREAT American Companies. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

[Commentary Donald J. Trump Posts From Truth Social @TrumpDailyPosts]

Donald J. Trump Truth Social Post 05:55 PM EST 12/08/25

Mexico continues to violate our comprehensive Water Treaty, and this violation is seriously hurting our BEAUTIFUL TEXAS CROPS AND LIVESTOCK. Mexico still owes the U.S over 800,000 acre-feet of water for failing to comply with our Treaty over the past five years. The U.S needs Mexico to release 200,000 acre-feet of water before December 31st, and the rest must come soon after. As of now, Mexico is not responding, and it is very unfair to our U.S. Farmers who deserve this much needed water. That is why I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico if this water isn’t released, IMMEDIATELY. The longer Mexico takes to release the water, the more our Farmers are hurt. Mexico has an obligation to FIX THIS NOW. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

FED MAY CUT RATES AND BOOST BILL PURCHASES

The Fed is expected to cut rates to 3.50%-3.75% Wednesday. Bank of America predicts an extra move: ~$45B in monthly short-term Treasury bill purchases to maintain bank reserves and prevent liquidity issues. Combined with MBS reinvestments, total bill purchases could reach ~$60B/month. These “Reserve Management Purchases” aren’t QE—they aim to keep money markets functioning, not stimulate lending. While critics may see it as money printing, the move could reassure markets amid rising Treasury issuance and concerns about tightening liquidity.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

BANKS’ EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FED DECISION

MORGAN STANLEY
Now expects cuts in Dec, Jan, and April to reach 3.0–3.25%.
• Statement to signal risk-management cuts are done.
• Several dissents expected.
• No major change to dots.

JPMORGAN
Also expects a “hawkish cut.”
• Statement to hint fewer cuts ahead.
• Dot plot: 3.4% (2026), 3.1% (2027), possibly higher longer-run.
• Future: Final cut in January.

BANK OF AMERICA
Expects a 25 bp cut plus balance-sheet actions.
• Statement to raise bar for further cuts.
• About three dissents expected.
• Next cuts: June and July.

DEUTSCHE BANK
Says stronger growth + sticky inflation mean caution on more cuts.
• Statement to move more hawkish.
• Dots in line with 3.4% (2026), 3.1% (2028).
• Next cut: September.

UBS
Sees a strong majority backing a 25 bp cut.
• Statement could shift toward balanced risks, though not baseline.
• Expects 2+ dissents, mainly from Musalem and Schmid.
• Inflation forecasts slightly lower; dots similar to September.
• Powell likely stresses data dependence and being closer to neutral.

COMMERZBANK
Sees a 25 bp cut, but with many dissents possible.
• Powell likely pairs the cut with hawkish messaging.
• Only one more cut before his term ends; more easing starting June under a new chair.

GOLDMAN SACHS
Supports a cut due to a softening labor market.
• Statement likely to stress higher bar for future cuts.
• Forecast revisions: higher GDP, slightly lower inflation.

CITI
Expects a hawkish cut.
• Dots mostly unchanged.
• Powell won’t rule out Jan or March cuts but will avoid dovish tone.

WELLS FARGO
Expects the Fed to keep moving toward a more neutral stance.
• Dot plot: 3.4% (2026), 3.1% (2027–28), 3.0% long run.
• Statement may see 3–4 dissents; softer guidance.
• Outlook: 25 bp cuts in Q1 and Q2.

[(((The Daily Shot))) @SoberLook]

Australia bond yields have risen sharply over the past two months while the curve has flattened.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

The price of a pint in the UK is at an all time high, per FT:

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Median house price in California compared to median income from 1984 to 2023.

In 1984, the median house price in California was $115,000 and the median income was $29,000.

In other words, the median home in California was ~3.9x the median income.

Now, the median home in California is $850,000 and the median income is $81,000, or ~10.5x the median income.

The recent move higher in home prices makes the 2008 decline look small, watch until the end.

Home ownership has become a luxury.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

FOMC preview:

UBS economist Jonathan Pingle: We expect a relatively dovish outcome wrapped in data dependence & We think participants are generally comfortable with the level of nominal rates, and that the median dot in 2023 revises down with the downward revisions to inflation projections we expect. We walk through the logic inside. That is not to say we think the FOMC is committing to no more rate hikes. Instead, we expect Chair Powell to say the FOMC is prepared to raise rates further if appropriate. We expect the median participant is willing to wait and see if inflation falling, making the real rate more restrictive over time, can do the remaining work for them.

Nomura economist Aichi Amemiya: We expect the Fed will keep rates on hold at 5.25-5.50% at the September meeting in line with current market pricing. Data since the July meeting have been dovish. Core inflation has eased significantly, and we see signs that a sustainable disinflation process has begun. The labor market has also begun to cool gradually, with payrolls growth and job vacancies slowing in the latest data. We expect the summary of economic projections to show faster growth and lower core inflation in 2023, with limited changes to forecasts for 2024 and beyond.

Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius: The immediate question for markets is whether the median dot will continue to project an additional hike this year to 5.5-5.75%, presumably in November. We think that it will, but only by a narrow majority, and in part for the strategic purpose of preserving flexibility. We continue to think that the FOMC will ultimately decide in November that it has made enough progress in the inflation fight to leave the funds rate unchanged.

Citi economist Andrew Hollenhorst: The FOMC is widely expected to skip hiking on Wednesday at 2PM and policy rates are likely now within 25bp of the terminal rate. Much stronger than expected growth, tight labor markets and remaining upside risk to inflation keep risks skewed hawkish. The 2023 median dot will likely continue to show one more 25bp rate hike (which we expect to be delivered in November). In our base case, the 2024 median dot will stay put but risks are to a shift higher which would reinforce a higher-for-longer
message.

Bank of America analyst Michael Gapen: We expect the Fed to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25-5.5% at the September FOMC meeting. This outcome would be consistent with both recent Fed communications and current market pricing. We expect no change to the Fed's balance sheet policies.

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

"Supply-side constraints exemplified by the autoworkers’ strike & rise in oil prices will cast a hawkish shadow over the FOMC meeting that starts today. Powell is likely to embrace some version of the higher-for-longer policy that is increasingly being priced in:" Citi analysts

[Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook]

HF flows: "Single Stocks saw the largest net selling in two months (-1.1 SDs), driven by short sales outpacing long buys 2.3 to 1."

- Goldman Sachs

[Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook]

Hedge Fund flows: "8 of 11 sectors were net sold [last] week, led in notional terms by Info Tech, Financials, Utilities, and Materials, while Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, and Real Estate were the only net bought sectors."

- Goldman Sachs

[Hirie @Hirie2021]

@Kosukeitou 参加希望です。よろしくお願いします。