Hodl.FM

[Nolan Voss @BondRogue]

2/
It reads the gap between two signals that disagree:

Technical — S&P 500 up, trend bullish
Institutional — BofA 70% bearish, Citi short

4 weighted macro triggers → one number, the Gap Score (0–100):

- RSI(14) S&P 500 — 35%
- VIX + 20d change — 25%
- Price vs 200 EMA — 25%
- Institutional positioning (BofA) — 15%

Zones: 0–30 contained · 30–65 elevated · 65+ wide gap

#Trading #BuildInPublic

[Nolan Voss @BondRogue]

1/
The chart screams STRONG BUY.
Citi and BofA are quietly building shorts.

Yesterday I teased the Risk Gap Reader — a bot that measures how far apart the people watching charts and the people moving the money have drifted.

Here's the full build ↓

#SPY #StockMarket

[Nolan Voss @BondRogue]

The S&P 500 just dropped 2.64%. The Nasdaq lost 4.18%, its worst day since April 2025. And it looks ready to keep going.

A strong jobs report sent yields spiking, and the AI trade cracked.

For weeks the setup was the same: price said strong buy, RSI overbought, trend up. Meanwhile Citi flagged shorts building and BofA said 70% of its bear signals had triggered. The gap between price and positioning kept widening.

Price looked healthy. The risk underneath was building.
I built an indicator that measures that gap. The video shows what it's reading now⬇️

#SPY #Nasdaq

[Hodl.FM @HodlFm]

@BondRogue Solid approach, makes sense now especially with the current low correlation

[Nolan Voss @BondRogue]

So I built The Correlation Reader.

It tracks BTC/SPX 30-day rolling correlation (35% weight), layered with BTC/Gold ratio, DXY, M2 growth, and VIX.

Right now: correlation reads 0.28. The threshold is 0.30. Regime: DIVERGE_BTC_WEAK.

Position: Long SPY, Short MSTR. Scalping the spread, waiting for either widening or reversion.

The bot isn't predicting where BTC goes next. It's reading whether the spread holds.

My last build was the TLT/stagflation engine. This one trades the SPY/MSTR decoupling. The build-in-public series continues.

#MSTR #SPY #AlgoTrading #Scalping #Claude #ClaudeCode #BuildInPublic #Macro

[Tooly @ToolySOL]

My mum told us to go outside.

[Dweller @One_Way_Home]

Well this is concerning…

[Hodl.FM @HodlFm]

One of the better macro threads this week📍

[Dunker XBT @dunkerxbt]

1/ Markets are breaking. The cause is a logistics collapse in the Strait of Hormuz. Insurers refuse to cover tankers, and the Trump administration is now ready to do it themselves — which only confirms how critical the situation really is.

High oil prices create a dollar shortage, which triggers a sell-off of everything that can be sold. Capital is flowing out of overvalued tech stocks into value assets. Investors need deep diversification — otherwise, preserving wealth in this chaos will be nearly impossible.

#OilCrisis #HormuzStrait #MarketMeltdown #Geopolitics #IranIsraelwar #EnergyWars

[Aptos @Aptos]

Creators are the focus, connection is the value, creativity is the premium.

Watch CreatorFi by @insomnia_labs' Co-Founder, Billy Huang, alongside Aptos Foundation's @aptAlix.

[Boros @boros_fi]

https://t.co/E4CX90HIPv

[Hodl.FM @HodlFm]

@AwfulWays @annayaksheva every new tool looks like garbage to someone, until it doesn't. see you in a year👀

[CoinDesk @CoinDesk]

.@hexonaut explains how @sparkdotfi is scaling the next era of DeFi with Spark Prime. This new architecture allows borrowers to cross-margin positions across DeFi, CEXs, and qualified custodians—meaning $9B+ in liquidity can finally move as a unified portfolio.

[Partner Content]

[Mike McGlone @mikemcglone11]

Bitcoin $10,000 May Be Normal Reversion If Peak Beta -
Bitcoin has turned downward and may not find a low-price cure until around $10,000. Before the pandemic distortion and through most of 2020, the first-born crypto hovered near this threshold. My graphic shows that roughly $10,000 is the most traded price since 2019. What stops reversion toward the mode? The S&P 500 (x10) on the same scale as Bitcoin may emphasize the crypto's top underpinning, and beta could be rolling over from 7,000 resistance. If stocks have peaked, that's all that matters in most markets, particularly highly speculative cryptos, of which there are now many millions.
An unlimited supply of Bitcoin competitors, along with a worthy up-too-much catalyst -- President Donald Trump's 2024 election -- tilts my bias to normal reversion for the highly volatile and speculative risk asset.
Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/V3LQqEb6NL {BI COMD}
#bitcoin #stockmarket @markets

[Alex Thorn @intangiblecoins]

quantum is not why the whale sold

novo didn’t connect the two. he said it was one reason ppl are claiming for btc weakness, but he disagrees with that (this is clear if you read the full transcript)

he then clarified on bloomberg that quantum isn’t the reason for btc weakness

[Hodl.FM @HodlFm]

@annayaksheva A.W.S.M.

[Hodl.FM @HodlFm]

@elonmusk Fuck Elon ! We are not selling !

[Hodl.FM @HodlFm]

@elonmusk Not everyone understands that they have no hands 🙌

[Hodl.FM @HodlFm]

@cousincrypt0 Smells like a lot of shit when it dumps from 2k

[Hodl.FM @HodlFm]

@realcryptoface Great trader and smart man !