From an amazing Michael Crichton talk:
“Media carries with it a credibility that is totally undeserved. You have all experienced this, in what I call the Murray Gell-Mann Amnesia effect. (I refer to it by this name because I once
discussed it with Murray Gell-Mann, and by dropping a famous name I imply greater importance to myself, and to the effect, than it would otherwise have.)
Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article
on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the
article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues.
Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the "wet streets cause rain" stories. Paper's full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page,
and forget what you know.
That is the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect. I'd point out it does not operate in other arenas of life. In ordinary life, if somebody consistently exaggerates or lies to you, you soon discount everything
they say. In court, there is the legal doctrine of falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus, which means untruthful in one part, untruthful in all. But when it comes to the media, we believe against
evidence that it is probably worth our time to read other parts of the paper.”
10 thoughts on incentives:
1. Don't ask your barber if you need a haircut.
2. "I can fix the $32 trillion US debt problem in 5 minutes. You pass a law that when there’s a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members congress are ineligible for re-election” - Warren Buffett
3. 33% of British criminals were dying en route to Australia in the 1700s.
Britain switched from paying sea captains for every passenger who walked on the ship to paying them for every passenger who walked off.
Immediately, the survival rate shot up to 99%.
4. “Never attribute to conspiracy what is more easily explained by incentives and incompetence.” - @naval
5. “If you reward profits alone, it’s the dumbest thing you could do. Employees will quit advertising and start shrinking the business” - Buffett
6. If video games teach us one thing: If you want to motivate humans, frequent rewards are more addicting than one-off rewards.
7. “I think I've been in the top 5% of my age cohort all my life in understanding the power of incentives, and all my life I've underestimated it. And never a year passes but I get some surprise that pushes my limit a little farther." - Munger
8. If the person tells you why their city, relationship, or job is great - take it with a pinch of salt.
If they tell you why it's terrible - take it like a handful of gold.
If someone swims upstream against their identity or incentives, it probably holds some deep truth to it.
9. "Incentives are like magnets. An invisible but powerful pull." - @awilkinson
10. Skinner's Law:
If procrastinating, 2 ways to solve it:
Option 1 - Make the pain of inaction > Pain of action
Option 2 - Make the pleasure of action > Pleasure of inaction
The person with a gun to their head or crack cocaine at the finish line doesn't need motivation.
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I first stumbled on this video 2 years ago - this is still one of the best pieces of advice I've scripted my life after.
Aspirations beget aspirations - if you tie your happiness to the fulfillment of an aspiration, you'll never truly be happy.
I talked to a super smart 20 year old this week.
All the potential in the world, but had a major major flaw in his thinking.
This flaw is becoming the most common mistake I am seeing young people make early in their career.
Let's break it down: