“Because they are non correlated, something magical happens.” — 🥐
Yet many are too afraid to go over there; they fear the land of non-correlated assets.
What happened to investors in Brazil $EWZ today is a preview of what the transition to Paradigm E—i.e., the Fourth Turning climax—will likely feel like. Significant redistributive policies are coming, whether you agree with them or not.
By nature of being a vol trader, I’ve studied many different market crashes. Not just the common ones in the U.S., but episodes like Britain in 1720, Vienna in 1873, and the Dutch tulip mania of 1637.
There are some interesting behavioral takeaways that aren’t entirely intuitive unless you participate in markets every single day.
One of the biggest for me is that large market moves often need two-way action to develop. Behaviorally, you need participants willing to take the other side, because their eventual need to unwind can help accelerate the move. It’s almost like storing energy that gets released later. To create that dynamic, a “gray catalyst” can be particularly powerful one whose implications aren’t immediately black and white.
Here are two examples that helped produce massive moves in opposite directions that had gray area headlines that led to that two way flow.
COVID (March 2020): What often gets lost in the sauce is that many participants were aggressively betting against the idea that COVID would be severely disruptive. As stocks fell, they bought the dip and sold vol. When stocks kept falling and vol kept rising, some of those positions became fuel for the next leg of the move as participants were forced to unwind.
Looking back, the outcome seems obvious. In real time, the eventual scale of the disruption was far from clear. There was HOPE that it would pass quickly. Headlines about potential treatments, policy support, or a less severe impact repeatedly gave investors reasons to step back in. Stocks would rip 5% higher immediately on that news and hope, only to reverse again even lower when more negative news hit.
Those rallies matter. They give existing longs a reason to stay and new buyers a reason to enter. When the recovery fails, there is another round of positioning that may need to come out. Without that back-and-forth, it can be harder to produce the same degree of forced selling. The uncertainty helps keep replenishing the other side.
Meme mania (January 2021): Companies like GameStop and AMC surged hundreds of percent amid a speculative frenzy and short squeezes. Here, too, there was a gray area. Many investors saw businesses facing serious fundamental challenges, which made shorting them appear rational, especially as their share prices climbed further away from what those investors believed they were worth.
But a compelling fundamental argument does not tell you how far a stock can move before that argument pays off. As prices rose, some shorts covered, while others saw an even more attractive entry point and stepped in. That fresh short exposure created the potential for another round of forced buying if prices continued higher.
The gray area was the gap between the fundamental thesis and the path the market could take. Of course these weren’t great stocks, and the fact that people came in on that helped the waves move higher and higher.
That’s the behavioral dynamic I find so interesting. Uncertainty can keep attracting participants to the other side of a move. As the move extends, their conviction runs into their capital constraints, and an opinion can turn into a forced transaction.
after 300+ hours in Grok Bot, i can tell you most people are using it WRONG
they treat it like a chatbot... i have 20 bots working while i sleep
here's the full guide to building your own AI agent team:
📁 the mistake
↳ most people build one giant bot and ask it everything
↳ or they just chat with it like a search box
↳ one bot doing every job gets messy fast... it mixes up context and does everything half right
📁 one bot, one job
↳ every bot gets exactly one job
↳ a research bot only researches
↳ a writing bot only writes
↳ small, focused bots are easier to fix and easier to trust
📁 your first bot
↳ give it a clear job in one line
↳ give it a tone
↳ how it talks, how long its answers are
↳ tell it where your stuff lives
↳ which docs, folders and accounts it should look at
↳ correct it once and it remembers
↳ you stop repeating yourself every morning
📁 connectors
↳ plug your bots into the tools you already use:
↳ Notion for notes and docs
↳ Gmail for email
↳ GitHub for code
↳ Buffer for scheduling posts
↳ X for research
↳ now they work on your real stuff, no copy paste
📁 chief of staff
↳ you only talk to ONE bot, the chief of staff
↳ it does no specialist work itself... it just routes
↳ results come back to you through it
📁 the org chart
↳ under the chief of staff sit the specialists:
↳ X research bot
↳ Reddit research bot
↳ YouTube lessons bot
↳ site audit bot
↳ copywriting bot
↳ bots message each other
↳ the research bot hands its findings straight to the copywriting bot, no you in the middle
📁 bot templates
↳ Grok Bot has bot templates you can start from instead of building from scratch
↳ or share one with a link
↳ Alfred, my bot chief advisor, designs, audits and improves my other bots
↳ dr eggcbot asks a few questions, then creates new bots for me
↳ bots build bots... bots fix bots
📁 routines
↳ recurring work on a schedule that runs while you're offline
↳ examples:
↳ every morning the X research bot pulls what's trending in your niche
↳ every week the site audit bot checks your site and sends a report
↳ every night the Reddit bot collects the questions people ask in your space
↳ you wake up to work already done
📁 skills
↳ any task you repeat, save it once as a skill
↳ every bot on the team can use it
↳ write the steps once, never explain them again
📁 give it Claude Code
↳ tell your bot to install Claude Code in its terminal
↳ log in
↳ now it builds its own scripts and tools
↳ need a scraper or a small helper tool? it builds it
📁 style files
↳ have a bot study a creator's top posts
↳ it writes a tone .md file
↳ voice, hooks, line rhythm, the words they use
↳ every writing bot reads tone .md first
↳ no more generic ai slop
📁 sharing passwords with 1Password
↳ first create a separate vault just for Grok Bot (call it "Grok Bot")
↳ put only the logins your bots need in it, nothing else
↳ connect that vault, not your whole 1Password
↳ logins stay saved and encrypted in 1Password, bots only get what you put there
↳ at a login page the bot fills the saved login
↳ it never sees the actual password... it only knows if the fill worked
↳ no pasting passwords in chat
📁 safety
↳ bots draft, you press send
↳ they ask before deleting, buying or posting anything
↳ the bots do the work, you keep the final say
pro tip: copy this tweet into Grok Bot and see what team it builds around YOUR workflow
stuck somewhere? drop it below, i'll help where i can
A billionaire sat in a room for 42 minutes and listed every psychological trick that makes people lose money. for free. the finance industry has spent thirty years pretending this recording does not exist.
he didn't sell a course. he didn't write a newsletter. he sat in a chair at 96 years old and explained why brilliant people do the dumbest things with their money. then he explained why they will keep doing it.
MBA programs charge $200,000 to teach behavioral finance. he covered 25 biases in one sitting. some of them are still not in any curriculum. he gave the entire framework away on camera.
the part nobody talks about: he called crypto antisocial. he said index funds will crush most managers. he said private equity is full of wretched excess. he said all of this in a room full of people who manage money for a living. nobody argued.
a hedge fund analyst at a top firm told me this is the first thing they send to anyone who joins the desk. not a book. not a model. a 42-minute video of a 96-year-old man explaining why you will be wrong and how to recognize it before it costs you everything.
40 million people have heard his name. almost none of them have watched him explain the 25 ways their own brain is working against them.
the lecture is free. he died the following year. it is in the video.
There’s this persistent narrative in trading that the smartest guys in the room are inevitably the ones who make the most money.
You constantly hear things like, “How could you ever compete with a firm like XYZ?”
I’ve said this before, but I think that couldn’t be further from the truth.
In my experience, a few attributes consistently separate good traders from everyone else:
1) A relentless desire to progress.
2) An exceptional work ethic.
3) Slightly above-average intelligence.
4) Genuine self-awareness and humility.
5) Unwavering discipline.
6) Mental flexibility and the ability to adapt.
7) Natural gravitation to take risk.
If you genuinely possess these attributes and dedicate yourself to the craft, it becomes very difficult not to develop into a good trader over time. It’s actually quite rare the giga brain that is strictly exceptional raw intelligence ends up lasting long in this game.
Below is a quote on gold & silver from circa 1910 as quoted in "The Raven of Zurich: The Memoirs of Felix Somary."
While many investors (correctly) say, "It's never different this time", most investors do not look back far enough in time.
History did not start in 1980 or 1945.
🚨Anthropic just showed a 24-minute workshop on how to actually do prompts for Claude.
Taught by the people who built it.
Free. No registration. No paywall.
I've seen $300 courses that don't cover what they teach in the first 8 minutes.
Watch it and bookmark it now!
Video Credit : Respective owner
This 90-min talk by Ed Thorp, who beat Las Vegas with Claude Shannon, will teach you more about edge than a career on Wall Street.
He then beat the market for 20 years with no losing year. Bookmark & watch tonight, it'll change how you trade forever.
Anthropic just paid millions to hire Andrej Karpathy.
He gave you the same knowledge for $0 the same week.
Co-founder of OpenAI. Former head of AI at Tesla. The man who coined vibe coding.
No recruitment fee. No exclusive access. Just a link and 29 minutes.
LLMs are ghosts not animals.
Vibe coding is dead.
Software 3.0 is here.
Watch it.
Then read this.
Because Karpathy tells you what Software 3.0 is.
This shows you how to build one - a software factory with Claude Code that ships features while you sleep.
The full build guide is below.
Dica de ouro pra vcs: Instalem a extensão Obsidian web reader do chrome
Ela copia páginas inteiras removendo ads, só o que vc sublinhar e o mais genial: transcreve vídeos do youtube completos! Depois vc só transfere pro seu vault no obsidian.
https://t.co/tjT6TYM0uC
/grill-me is my most popular skill ever.
I get 5-10 messages a day about how it’s changed people’s workflows for the better
But… I’ve stopped using it for code. Here’s the improved version:
How to become dangerously good at AI without wasting 1000+ hours.
No useless tutorials.
No fake AI gurus.
No information overload.
I spent weeks filtering the internet so you don’t have to.
Here’s the ultimate AI learning stack for:
• LLMs
• AI Agents
• MCP
• Prompt Engineering
• RAG
• AI Engineering
• Vector Databases
🧠 Videos
LLM Introduction
https://t.co/h6ozVonQ6A
LLMs from Scratch
https://t.co/D8FQDODqNU
Agentic AI Overview (Stanford)
https://t.co/JzkZzYDEdO
Building & Evaluating Agents
https://t.co/s0xfg3yZXA
Building Effective Agents
https://t.co/TgZLOTQAS0
Building Agents with MCP
https://t.co/tOEaposX4k
🗂️ Repositories
Microsoft AI Agents for Beginners
https://t.co/mT1G6WkVrE
Prompt Engineering Guide
https://t.co/gV7DhhwOMk
Hands-On LLMs
https://t.co/DXuyVmXNWe
Made With ML
https://t.co/pCk1JOXx1d
LLM Course
https://t.co/J3iXmn4Qha
📚 Guides
Google Agent Whitepaper
https://t.co/y8cyaXNlhu
Building Effective Agents by Anthropic
https://t.co/ZcQnJMfGAV
OpenAI Practical Guide to Agents
https://t.co/y25UBCbcHA
📖 Books
Building LLMs from Scratch
https://t.co/AK5NUtOfLS
The LLM Engineering Handbook
https://t.co/CFl7CftMHz
AI Engineering
https://t.co/vO8AAPCuy9
📄 Papers
ReAct
https://t.co/autyBsoimK
Toolformer
https://t.co/DpEXu9rlTi
Generative Agents
https://t.co/Mqpdfu3tGK
🎓 Courses
HuggingFace Agents Course
https://t.co/R2pmC4Ypiw
MCP with Anthropic
https://t.co/X8PqGfoAdA
Bookmark this.
You’ll need it sooner than you think.