I want to write a thread but don't even know where to start, perhaps I can chip away at it by the end of the week.
There's so much alpha to share as to why the majority are going to get sidelined before "the real move" for crypto.
Kind of epic how they played it.
Look under the hood. $98K-$99.5K key support for BTC should have never been lost — we can speculate if it was purposefully executed or just a spanner in the works. Doesn't matter. This has lead to the biggest sentiment vs real market disconnect yet.
I'm telling you to take your focus off BTC price action this one time because it's pure noise. The job is already done.
H12026 — I'm leaning very heavily towards Q1 for these targets to all hit:
S&P above 8300.
RUT above 3000.
DXY below 96.
Lets see where BTC ends up, I think the move to the upside will surprise greater than this move to the downside did. $182K+.
Right now, we're in the bottoming phase. Many scenarios. But each day we get closer to mid December, the odds of lower prices continue to drop and higher gets incrementally more certain.
I mentioned alts will put in their initial shock, capitulatory lows and likely won't put in fresh lows even if BTC does. This was true for the most part (decent tokens). They didn't go lower and are now creeping back up. Some faster than others — while traders wait for $107K reclaim for BTC, these tokens well on their way to higher levels (sidelining panic sellers).
Key dates:
9th Dec — JOLTS
10th Dec — FOMC
16th Dec — Employment situation, likely a date where the market can begin front-running more easing of policy (next FOMC 29th Jan). That gives good runway.
Been thinking on picking up the CrossX indicator, seems to spot local tops and lows and could further increase the probability of swings made through cycle trading.
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Internal message/
The tape is showing the exact second stage aftershock of the gold blowoff top. Gold = fear. This is fear unwinding.
Gold hit peak. That fear bid collapsed. When gold unwinds a blowoff you get a global liquidity snap that ripples through every asset class. That is what is happening. BTC ETFs down 3% is not rejection. It is dollar raising. All BTC pairs red against SPY NDX AAPL NVDA GOLD is just a correlation reset. Bonds flat means no crisis. Dollar firm means collateral preference is resetting. Good.
BTC weekly structure remains perfect. This is the 3rd drawdown > 30% of the cycle. The prior hits were at 34.11% and 33.92%. This one on my chart I got at 34.98%. All three land on the exact trendline pulled from the bull flag breakout. The current level at 81k to 83k is exactly where cycle math says it should land. It’s symmetrical.
This is the purge. This is the cleansing phase that always comes before the vertical impulse. Gold failing means the old world anchor cannot hold liquidity. BTC holding structure means the new collateral engine is still intact. Nothing broke. Nothing changed. The unwind is the setup. Liquidity drained from gold and parked in money markets will rotate into BTC once volatility compresses.
The target stays 144k to 192k. The tape is not bearish. The tape is reloading the slingshot. BTC is preparing for the super bid. Look at the chart. No emotion.