Hot Spur

CBOE market maker/ floor broker, stock and options trader, statistical analyst, baseball, football and basketball sports bettor.

[Mamba @BlackMambaDFS]

I like George Kittle to have another big game against the Broncos 👀

Denver has been giving it up to tight ends. They’ve allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the position, along with the 4th-most targets, 7th-most receptions and 8th-most yards.

Kittle has a 19% target share through 3 weeks, tied for 1st on the team with Mike Evans, who got injured last game.

In the first half, Evans had a 35% target share with 6 targets compared to Kittle’s 2.

After Evans left at halftime, Kittle’s usage went through the roof.

He had a 50% target share with 5 targets, and all 5 were 1st-read targets. He had a 71% 1st-read target rate in the half without Evans, with 2 of those targets resulting in touchdowns 👀

Kittle also leads the team this year with 5 targets inside the 20 and leads the team in targets inside the 10-yard line.

The Broncos play the 4th-most man coverage in the league at 35% and play 51% single-high.

Against man coverage, Kittle leads the team in yards per route run at 2.67 and has 2 touchdowns.

The sample size against single-high this year is small, but Kittle leads the team in routes run with 1 target against the coverage.

Looking back to 2025, Kittle ranked 9th among all WRs and TEs with 3.19 yards per route run. His .200 1st downs per route run also ranked 5th.

Mike Evans is currently a game-time decision after suffering a rib injury last week. He could still play through it, but either way, Kittle has a great schematic matchup. If Evans misses, that could create even more opportunity for him.

I’m on Kittle yards, receptions, touchdown and fantasy 🎯

Attached below is a visual of George Kittle’s production against single-high in 2025 and 2026.

📊Data provided by @FantasyPtsData

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[Mamba @BlackMambaDFS]

Play I made off the two Thursday Night Football writeups I put out

Harold Fannin + Jaylen Warren 🤝

@Playbook

[Mamba @BlackMambaDFS]

Darren Waller has a great matchup against the Lions 🎯

The over/under in this game is 50.5 with the Panthers sitting at 23.5 implied points. Vegas is expecting plenty of points in this matchup.

The Lions have been getting destroyed by tight ends through the first 3 weeks of the season. They’ve allowed the most fantasy points per game to the position at 33.4, the most yards at 351, the most receptions at 29 and the most touchdowns at 6.

They’ve also allowed a touchdown to both the starting and 2nd-string tight end in every game this year

The Lions are playing 44% Cover 3, which ranks top 6 in the NFL through 3 weeks, along with the 10th-most single-high.

Waller’s target share jumps from 10.7% overall to 14.7% against Cover 3.

His yards per route run also jumps from 1.70 overall to 2.40 against Cover 3.

He leads the Panthers in 1st downs with 4 and 1D/RR at .200 against Cover 3.

With Jalen Coker’s availability up in the air and likely being limited if he does play, I can see Waller having a big game against a Lions defense that has been getting taken advantage of by tight ends.

Waller is also coming off a game where he led the team with 8 targets, and I can see that usage carrying over into this matchup.

His 2 red-zone targets this season have both resulted in touchdowns, giving him even more upside in a game with a 50.5 total.

I’m on Waller receptions, yards and touchdown 🎯

Attached below is a visual of Waller’s production vs Cover 3.

📊Data provided by @FantasyPtsData

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[Mamba @BlackMambaDFS]

Jaylen Warren is a spot I’m all over 🚀📈

The Steelers are 6th in adjusted rushing yards before contact per attempt at 2.23 and have the 11th-best rush grade this week at 2.15.

The Browns are allowing the 8th-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt at 2.36, the 5th-most yards per carry at 4.75, and have allowed the 9th-most rushing yards through 3 weeks.

Warren’s usage in his only game without Rico Dowdle was ELITE.

In Week 3, his 89.8% snap share led all running backs while he ran 67.6% of the routes, 2nd among all running backs behind CMC at 85%. He also had an 11.8% target share.

His elite usage and opportunities led to success. He went for 20.6 fantasy points on 17 rush attempts for 127 yards, along with 4 targets for 3 receptions and 49 yards, all without a touchdown.

Any week that Rico Dowdle is out, Jaylen Warren looks like a great play.

Per @DrJesseMorse, Rico Dowdle is dealing with Grade 1 turf toe and is most likely out for Week 4.

I like Jaylen Warren to have another big game with the opportunities he should be getting.

I’m on his rushing yards, fantasy and touchdown 🔥

Attached below is a visual of the Browns defense yards per carry by gap.

📊Data provided by @FantasyPtsData

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[Mamba @BlackMambaDFS]

Stream lay 💣s

@Playbook

[Mamba @BlackMambaDFS]

“Safe” TNF SGP

Let’s cash 🫡

@Playbook

[Mamba @BlackMambaDFS]

Think we could see a breakout-type performance from Matthew Golden against the Falcons 🚀

Through 2 weeks, the Falcons have a 12.5% defensive pass rate over expectation, while allowing just 126 rushing yards, the fewest in the NFL.

The Packers have the fewest rushing yards in the NFL through 2 weeks, with Josh Jacobs out being a big reason they’ve struggled to get the run game going.

The Packers’ offensive line has also been pressured at a top-3 rate in the NFL at 43%, while the Falcons have generated the highest pressure rate in the NFL at 43%.

If the Packers are going to move the ball, I expect them to lean heavily on the passing game, especially with A.J. Terrell, the Falcons’ top corner, out.

When Jordan Love is under pressure, Golden has been his go-to guy.

He leads the Packers with:

• 30% target share
• 3.88 YPRR
• 40% 1st-read target share
• 0.167 1st downs per route run

The Falcons are playing single-high at a 64% rate, 7th highest in the NFL.

Against single-high this year, Golden has a 28% target share and leads the Packers in 1st-read target share.

Inside the 20-yard line, Golden is tied with Christian Watson for the team lead in target share at 30% and leads the team in 1st-read target share at 33%.

Golden still hasn’t scored this year despite the effort to get him involved in the red zone 👀

Between the pass-heavy environment, the pressure rates and Golden’s role when Love is under pressure, I really like how this sets up.

I’m on his receiving yards, fantasy points and him to score his first TD of the season.

Attached below is a visual of Matthew Golden’s production this year while Jordan Love is under pressure 👇

📊Data provided by @FantasyPtsData

🐍📈 Live on Twitch every night and day: https://t.co/IcDo1Osd0U

[Mamba @BlackMambaDFS]

Mike Evans looks primed for a massive week against the Dolphins 🎯

Evans looked great in Week 1 against the Rams, leading all 49ers WRs in snap rate at 75% while running 23 routes and commanding a 20% target share.

He finished with:

• 7 targets
• 6 receptions
• 49 yards
• 1 TD
• 16.9 fantasy points

But what really stands out to me is how he was being used.

6 of his 7 targets came on 3rd down.

That makes Evans the clear go-to option when the 49ers need to move the chains.

Now he gets a Dolphins defense that played base coverage at a 65% rate in Week 1, the highest rate in the NFL.

Base defense means fewer defensive backs on the field, which can create more favorable passing opportunities. That’s a matchup I want to attack with a WR like Evans.

Miami also had the lowest pressure rate in the NFL at just 6.5% while still blitzing at a top-5 rate.

If the Dolphins continue blitzing without generating pressure, that should give Brock Purdy plenty of time to find Evans.

Evans has also been one of the league’s best separators, ranking top-5 in Average Separation Score (ASS) over the last 3 seasons.

Put it all together:

📈 High team total
🎯 Strong Week 1 usage
🏈 Heavy 3rd-down involvement
🛡️ Miami playing a ton of base defense
⚡ Miami struggling to generate pressure
🔥 Elite separation ability

This feels like a spot where Evans can have a monster game.

I’m on Mike Evans for a touchdown, fantasy, yards and receptions 💰

Below is a graphic of Mike Evans’ player profile via Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0.

📊Data provided by @FantasyPtsData

🐍📈 Live on Twitch every night and day: https://t.co/KOlL1GErRI

[Mamba @BlackMambaDFS]

Stream 3 man

Let’s cash 🫡

@Playbook

[Mamba @BlackMambaDFS]

Another 3-man I put together on stream, odds are crazy on this one 🤞

@Playbook

[Mamba @BlackMambaDFS]

Christian Watson is a WR I’m targeting this week against the Jets 🎯

There are multiple things I really like about this matchup.

The Jets played 59% 2-high coverage in Week 1 after playing 52% 2-high in 2025.

Watson was extremely efficient against 2-high last season:

• 3.10 YPRR
• 17% target share
• 23% 1st-read target share, team-high
• .140 1st downs per route run, team-high

The Jets also played man coverage at a 33% rate last season, 5th-highest in the NFL.

Against man in 2025, Watson posted:

• 2.54 YPRR
• 22% 1st-read target share
• 175 yards
• 4 TDs

And now he gets this matchup coming off an absolute monster Week 1:

8 targets
6 receptions
147 yards
2 TDs

But the part I REALLY like is what could happen if the Jets bring pressure.

The Jets blitzed on 46% of their dropbacks in Week 1 and had a 12.2% pass rate over expectation.

Meanwhile, Jordan Love was pressured on 43% of his dropbacks.

Last season when Love was under pressure, Watson led the Packers in:

17% target share
14 1st-read targets
10 1st downs

If the Jets continue attacking this weak Packers offensive line with pressure, I expect Watson to be heavily involved.

Small sample on some of the Week 1 numbers, but I love how this matchup sets up for Watson.

He showed us what the ceiling looks like last week.

I’m looking for him to keep it rolling Sunday.

Like him for yards, fantasy and a touchdown ✅

Below is a visual of Christian Watson’s stats when his QB was pressured in 2025

📊Data provided by @FantasyPtsData

🐍📈 Live on Twitch every night and day: https://t.co/IcDo1Osd0U

[Mamba @BlackMambaDFS]

Going back to the well and once again I’m all over Amon-Ra St. Brown in a potential ceiling game spot🏈🚀

This Thursday Night Football game should be an absolute shootout.

The last time these two teams played in 2024, the score was 48-42 with 15 combined touchdowns.

In 2025, the Bills ran 2-high at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL (57.5%). In Week 1 of 2026, they ran it at a 61% rate.

Against 2-high in 2025, Amon-Ra was one of the best WRs in the NFL:

69 targets (2nd)
29.7% target share (4th)
6 TDs (4th)
2.52 YPRR (7th)

The Bills were also a bit of a pass funnel in Week 1, allowing the 4th-most receptions, 6th-most yards and 8th-most fantasy points to the WR

Amon-Ra opened 2026 with 10 receptions on 13 targets for 67 yards and 2 TDs against the Saints.

4 of those targets came inside the 20-yard line and 2 went for touchdowns.

If the Lions get down there, Amon-Ra is their guy.

Another fun trend: in his 2 games against the Bills, he averaged 33 fantasy points per game.

When we put it all together, Amon-Ra is in an absolute smash spot.

I’m all over any of his props: yards, receptions, fantasy score or touchdown.

Below is Amon-Ra’s player profile against 2-high in 2025 and 2026.

📊 Data provided by @FantasyPtsData

🐍📈 Live on Twitch every night and day: https://t.co/IcDo1Osd0U

[Mamba @BlackMambaDFS]

Jameson Williams looks like he could break out against the Bills📈🚀

Like I mentioned in the Amon-Ra writeup, this Bills-Lions game looks like it’s going to be an absolute shootout. Vegas has this game at a 54.5 O/U with the Bills as 5-point favorites.

The last time these two teams played in 2024, the score was 48-42 with 15 combined touchdowns.

In 2025, the Bills ran 2-high at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL (57.5%). In Week 1 of 2026, they ran it at a 61% rate.

Jameson had 5 of his 9 targets last week against the Saints come against 2-high. In a really small sample size, he actually out-targeted Amon-Ra, seeing a 31% target share compared to Amon-Ra’s 25%.

His average depth of target was also 15.0 yards.

The Bills allowed the 4th-most receptions, 6th-most yards and 8th-most fantasy points to WRs in Week 1.

Small sample size, but Vegas is expecting another high-scoring game here.

Last week against the Saints, Jameson had 128 air yards, which led the Lions. He also had multiple huge play opportunities.

He was tackled at the 1-yard line and dropped a few long passes.

His expected fantasy points were 19.7, which ranked 10th among all WRs in Week 1.

If things had gone differently and Jameson had caught one of those long passes or scored a touchdown, analysts would be talking about him as a breakout candidate or even a league winner. Now, he’s heading into a potential shootout against the Bills 👀

I’d really like to see Jameson break out in a potential shootout against the Bills.

I like his yards, fantasy score and the potential for a long TD.

Below is Jameson Williams’ player profile against 2-high coverage this year.

📊 Data provided by @FantasyPtsData

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[Mamba @BlackMambaDFS]

HR collab with @WiningPlaybook

Triple Js all the way 🫡

@Playbook

[Mamba @BlackMambaDFS]

Dalton Kincaid is in a smash spot against the Lions 💥

Kincaid is coming off a monster Week 1 where he caught 5 passes for 130 yards, leading all tight ends in receiving yards.

And now he gets a Lions secondary that’s dealing with injuries, including both starting safeties 👀

The Lions were the most targeted team by tight ends in Week 1, allowing 14 TE targets, and gave up 27 fantasy points to the position, 2nd-most in the NFL.

They also posted a 9% PROE (Pass Rate Over Expectation) in Week 1, making them one of the biggest pass funnels to start the season.

Last year, Josh Allen’s tight ends had a 29% target share inside the 20-yard line and combined for 7 TDs.

In a game where Buffalo should be throwing the ball a ton, don’t be surprised if Allen goes back to one of his tight ends when they get down there 🎯

Considering everything lining up for Kincaid in this one, he looks like he’s in a smash spot and I expect him to continue producing and have another big game.

I like Kincaid for receptions, yards, fantasy score and a TD.

Below is a graphic of the production the tight end position had against the Lions in Week 1 via Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0.

📊 Data provided by @FantasyPtsData

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[Mamba @BlackMambaDFS]

DJ Moore is a spot I really like against the Lions 👀

He’s coming off a game where he went for 21 fantasy points, 7 targets, 5 receptions, 100 yards and a touchdown.

Now he gets a Lions secondary that’s battered and injured and just got absolutely torched by the Saints.

Through 1 week, they’re allowing the most fantasy points, yards and receptions to WRs in the league. Their secondary is in shambles and this is a good opportunity for us to capitalize off of it.

DJ Moore led the Bills in targets, but these weren’t short dump-off targets. His average depth of target was 21.29 yards and he also led the team in air yards.

With the type of targets he’s getting, we could realistically see DJ Moore go for a long TD 👀

Considering everything going for DJ in this one and the possibility of a high-scoring shootout, I’m all over the Bills receivers.

Like DJ Moore for yards, fantasy score and a TD.

Below is a graphic of WR production against the Lions in Week 1 via Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0.

📊 Data provided by @FantasyPtsData

🐍📈 Live on Twitch every night and day: https://t.co/KOlL1GErRI

[Mamba @BlackMambaDFS]

Wrote up all 4 spots for Thursday Night Football

Make sure you read through the writeups to see why I’m on each spot 👀

Manifesting a writeup sweep 🧹

@Playbook

[Mamba @BlackMambaDFS]

Amon-Ra St. Brown is in an elite spot against the Saints 👀

The Lions have a 28.5-point implied team total in a game with a 50.0 O/U, setting up a favorable scoring environment for Detroit.

The Saints played zone coverage at a 76% rate last season, with a 59% single-high safety rate under defensive coordinator Brandon Staley, who remains with the team this season.

Amon-Ra was extremely productive against both coverages last year.

Vs. Zone
• 106 targets — 6th most among WRs
• 977 yards — 5th most
• 80 receptions — 5th most

Vs. Single-High
• 34 receptions — 3rd most
• 482 yards — 5th most
• 4 TDs — 4th most
• 106.2 fantasy points — 3rd most among WRs

That puts him right behind JSN and Puka in fantasy production against single-high coverage, which is some elite company.

The situation gets even more interesting when looking at games where Amon-Ra was a 7+ point home favorite.

In those games, he ranked:

• 7 TDs — 1st among all players
• 50 receptions — 2nd
• 663 yards — 2nd
• 19.8 fantasy points per game

The Saints’ defense also gives us another reason to like the touchdown angle.

New Orleans allowed 11 TDs on zone coverage in 2025, which ranked bottom 10 in the NFL, while also ranking top 6 in expected receiving TDs allowed at 11.5.

So when you put it all together:

📈 28.5-point Lions team total
📊 Saints played zone at a 76% rate
🎯 Amon-Ra was one of the NFL’s most productive WRs against zone
🏠 19.8 fantasy PPG when favored by 7+ at home
🔴 Saints allowed 11 TDs against zone last season

There are multiple ways to attack this matchup, and I really like Amon-Ra for a TD, receptions, yards, or fantasy score in what looks like a very favorable spot.

Attached is a look at Amon-Ra’s player profile as a 7+ point home favorite.

📊 Data provided by @FantasyPtsData

[Mamba @BlackMambaDFS]

Cashed the first football game of the season let’s make it two in a row 🫡

@Playbook

[Mamba @BlackMambaDFS]

Jackson Chourio vs. Andrew Abbott is a spot I can’t pass up on. 📈💣

Chourio has excellent past data against Abbott, going 3/8 with 2 HR and 2 hard-hit balls.

Abbott has also been getting crushed by righties over his last 3 starts:

• .280 BA
• .500 SLG
• 1.58 WHIP
• 2 HR allowed

Chourio is on 🔥 over his last 7 days, hitting .313 BA / .563 SLG with 10 hits in 32 AB and 2 HR.

Against lefties over his last 15 games:

• .346 BA
• .615 SLG
• 10% Barrel
• 36% FB
• 9 hits
• 2 HR
• 1 2B

Abbott is throwing a 66% fastball/changeup mix to righties over his last 3 starts.

Against that mix over Chourio’s last 5 games:

• .333 BA
• 1.000 SLG
• 25% Barrel
• 50% FB
• 2 HR

And his last 5 BBE against the fastball/changeup at night:

• 86 MPH Avg EV
• 40% Barrel
• 60% FB
• 66% HR/FB

Everything is lining up here.

I like Chourio for a HR, bases, or fantasy. He checks all three boxes for me. 📈💣

📊 Data provided by @PropFinderApp

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