Hugh Naylor

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Reporter: A wise man once said, 'Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation'

Trump: Who said that?

Reporter: Donald Trump

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US and Iran have signed the “Memorandum of Understanding” to end the Iran War electronically and it is now in effect, per Axios.

[FOX 4 NEWS @FOX4]

"We're going to get drunk before the game. We're going to get drunk during the game. And then we're going to get drunk after the game."

The match doesn't start for another few hours, but England fans have a plan.

[Ramp Capital @RampCapitalLLC]

That’s as good as money

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

One of the great ironies of this war is that the very person who built his career around the idea of toppling the Iranian regime are now witnessing the opposite outcome.

Instead of emerging weakened or isolated, the regime appears more entrenched and, in some respects, more diplomatically relevant than before. The assumption of the Israeli pm that military pressure would trigger regime collapse, pave the way for regional normalization, and allow Israel and the Gulf states to bypass the Palestinian issue has largely failed to materialize.

At the same time, the United States, under what many Israelis viewed as one of the most pro-Israel administrations in recent years has shown little appetite for a long-term confrontation with Iran. Washington's priority increasingly appears to be de-escalation and some form of accommodation with Tehran rather than another Middle Eastern military adventure.

The result is a strategic reality very different from what BB imagine in his worse dreams. Normalization with Saudi Arabia looks more distant than before, the Palestinian issue remains unavoidable, and Iran's leadership sees further evidence that it is not going anywhere. In fact, Tehran is now deepening its engagement with regional actors, including Saudi Arabia itself.

This outcome raises difficult questions about the assumptions that guided the campaign and whether key decision-makers relied on assessments that were disconnected from the political realities of the region.

Towards the end of his political career Netanyahu sees everything that he build collapsing, and the possibility of increased friction with President Trump is mounting.

On February 28, Netanyahu probably thought he was witnessing the fulfillment of his life's work: the United States and Israel going to war against Iran.

Months later, that moment increasingly looks less like the culmination of a grand strategy and more like the point at which it unraveled.

What was supposed to remake the Middle East turned into a house of cards, as the assumptions underpinning the strategy collapsed one by one. The result was not regime change, not regional realignment, and not a breakthrough in normalization, but a stark demonstration of how detached the strategy had become from reality and a real risl that his relationship with the US would deteriorate to a level not seen before

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

Trump didn’t just lose the war with Iran, he is now losing the peace deal too

The real story is the 60-day window

As oil inventories keep running down, Iran gains leverage

Before Israel was the rising power
Now Iran moving toward regional dominance

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US will allow Iran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel under the deal to end the war, per WSJ.

Details include:

1. The provision for waivers of sanctions on oil sales takes effect immediately upon signing the agreement

2. This also covers necessary services including banking, transportation and insurance needed to facilitate the sales

3. Iran is expected to receive upfront sanctions relief under the deal with further relief tied to Iran’s performance

Oil prices are down sharply on the news.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

The Iran deal has hammered Netanyahu's re-election chances on Polymarket, now 2% below Eizenkot for next Israeli PM, after being in the lead all year

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US oil prices drop below $79/barrel and hit the lowest level since March 10th.

[Stocktwits @Stocktwits]

SpaceX investors:

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: SpaceX stock, $SPCX, surges +9% in overnight trading and hits $2.7 trillion in market cap.

SpaceX has officially surpassed Amazon to become the 5th largest public company in the world.

[Skee-Ball Librarian @oodja]

BOSTON ATM

[Laura Shin @laurashin]

"This is not the next Amazon. Amazon went public at a $500 million valuation. This is a $2.5 trillion company in the broadband business, which doesn't trade at a high multiple"

Ram Ahluwalia on why the SpaceX hype doesn't match the fundamentals

"This is a bad investment. People remember history incorrectly. When Tesla IPO'd, certainly at a much lower valuation before Elon had fully established his cult, if you bought immediately around the IPO you were waiting until November just to recover your principal. It really wasn't until 2020 that Tesla took off"

"They've got competition for Starlink including Verizon, competition in rockets from Rocket Lab, and Jeff Bezos coming online. We don't see substantial end demand from government, enterprise, and consumer behind it"

"What's exciting about AI is you've got the Mag 7, defense, and sovereigns spending real money fueled by profits. We're not seeing that in the space story yet"

[Austin Federa | 🇺🇸 @Austin_Federa]

There’s a new Jim Cramer

[Footy Humour @FootyHumour]

The Japanese guy holding a Pikachu being tossed up by the Holland crowd 😭😂😭

[jeremy scahill @jeremyscahill]

⚡️First response from an Iranian official confirming an agreement has been reached with the U.S. to sign an MOU

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US oil prices crash below $81/barrel after Pakistan announces that the US and Iran have reached a peace deal.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Pakistan's Prime Minister announces that the US and Iran have officially reached a peace deal and the official signing will take place on June 19th in Switzerland.

"Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon," he says.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

IRAN SAYS NO DEAL WILL BE SIGNED BY TRUMP DEADLINE - FARS