@goescarlos@LeonardoEloizo A minha interpretação do memo é que H1B não seriam afetados no tocante ao ter de deixar os EUA pra aplicar pra residência. Mas é tudo tão bagunçado que não sei. Ainda aposto que isto vai ser derrubado no judiciário.
Really cool!
"Systemic Banking Crises Database: 1970-2025" by Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia.
"This paper presents an updated version of the Laeven and Valencia (2013, 2020) database on systemic banking crises, extending the coverage through 2025. The update incorporates new episodes, while maintaining the definition established in previous editions, which emphasizes both significant signs of financial distress and substantial policy interventions. The update integrates textual tools to screen potential candidates that are then further scrutinized to confirm if our definition is met. The database includes information on banking crises episodes during 1970-2025, including starting dates, policy responses, fiscal costs, and output losses. It offers a comprehensive tool for assessing cross-country vulnerabilities and policies to resolve banking crises."
https://t.co/4nSydVP6lF
Edmund Phelps, RIP
A giant of macroeconomics has left us. Here is a post by Olivier Blanchard: https://t.co/Iic4EJHqna
One of his many influential contributions: Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment over Time:
https://t.co/NJ0JFgxOqL
In his book, "My Journeys in Economic Theory," Edmund Phelps "tells the story of his role in reshaping economic theory, offering a powerful personal account of a creative and rewarding career."
"At its core, this book shares the joy of intellectual achievement: the excitement of coming up with a new idea that radically departs from prevailing views and the satisfaction of exercising one’s own ingenuity instead of applying or developing others’ models. Telling the story of a life packed with intellectual adventure, My Journeys in Economic Theory provides a profound vision of a dynamic, modern economy that offers lives rich with creativity and meaning."
https://t.co/KM8gMAeqjr
@JesusFerna7026 Besides being extremely slow on simple tasks and prone to hallucinating—something Opus 4.6 also did, but far less often—it also burns through an absurd number of tokens even when it isn’t being prompted much. I don’t see the improvements.
Available now on our website
D’Andrea, F.A.M.C., Vaca Pereira Rocha, H., Jensen, N. et al. Economic freedom and rent seeking: evidence from US states. Public Choice (2026). https://t.co/n2S9Lz0Dza
An absolute banger of a paper.
“A Gentle Introduction to Matrix Calculus” by econometrics legend Jan Magnus — one of the clearest explanations of matrix derivatives ever written.
If you work in econometrics, machine learning, statistics, or optimisation, this paper is pure gold.
1/Chris Sims is easily one of the most influential macroeconomists (& perhaps most influential empirical macroeconomist) of the last 50 years; he fundamentally changed thinking about monetary policy, metrics,& causality (VARs, time series models). Thread on his greatest hits🧵👇
Excelente vídeo do Victor Rangel, como sempre. Uma simples análise de dados internacionais de supply chains, coeficientes de exportação e barreiras de comércio (tarifárias e não-tarifárias), desmente essa visão ultrapassada de política industrial que existe no Brasil.
With debt high and borrowing costs rising, governments can no longer defer hard fiscal choices. Trust is now essential to reconciling competing priorities, Era Dabla‑Norris and Rodrigo Valdes write in F&D magazine. https://t.co/tY0198rky3
By far the most versatile Claude Code tools I built in the last few weeks were /prompt and /review-plan.
One turns unstructured narrated brain dumps into coherent instructions, the other gets a bunch of agents to critique the plan & suggest a new one.
https://t.co/x6WDN984Rt