Chris Blattman

Economist & political scientist @UChicago @HarrisPolicy studying conflict & organized crime. My book is Why We Fight:

[Matt Clancy @mattsclancy]

@coeff_giving is looking to support incubators for new kinds of orgs across our different areas! On abundance and growth, some examples of the kind of orgs I hope could come out of these incubators 👇

[Chris Blattman @cblatts]

https://t.co/AE53ywBiU2

[Chris Blattman @cblatts]

Come work with me and @SantiagoTobon on projects related to organized crime and youth well-being in Medellin, Colombia!

[Santiago Tobón @SantiagoTobon]

Buscamos Research Associate en Medellín para dos estudios con @cblatts y @poverty_action: cómo reclutan los combos a los jóvenes y qué cambia en su gobernanza cuando la Alcaldía y la comunidad se organizan. Cierra el 18 de noviembre. https://t.co/sn37uoMnMP

Perfil: pregrado en economía o un campo cuantitativo, 3 años o más de experiencia en investigación o análisis de datos, Stata, experimentos aleatorios y dominio de inglés y español. El cargo es en Medellín.

[Eliana La Ferrara @elianalaferrara]

Apply to work with me as a predoc at Harvard Kennedy School! Projects in development and political economy, including on norms, gender, networks, and media. Rolling basis until Nov. 16.
Details here:

https://t.co/8RD8r6pJS8

[Chris Blattman @cblatts]

We're launching a new version of Claude Blattman shortly. We're looking for people with a little time on their hands this weekend who want to make either their first steps into agentic AI or who have been playing around with agentic AI but feel like they're not getting great results or not taking full advantage.

The idea would be for you to try to adopt the skills, tools, and checklists we advise, and help us find the bugs by early next week.

Reply here or DM if interested, and we'll reach out to as many as we can

[Justin Sandefur @JustinSandefur]

"New Chinese loan commitments [to Africa] fell from a peak of $29 billion in 2016 to just $2.1 billion in 2024, while debt-service payments on earlier loans have continued to rise. As a result, Africa now pays more to China in debt service than it receives in new disbursements."

https://t.co/N7UjvCgyV8

[Yanis Varoufakis @yanisvaroufakis]

I am going to write something below that should be seen as the musings of one who celebrated – and still celebrates – Lula’s victory over Bolsonaro Jr. Here it goes:

I cannot for the life of me justify why o why Brazil’s courts had to demand of Bolsonaro that he hands over his passport the moment he lost the election. That he disputed the veracity of the election result is a sign of a faulty character, evidence that he is a bad loser. BUT, he had every right to being a bad loser; to dispute, rightly or wrongly, any result.

As for the argument that he was being investigated for other misdemeanours or crimes, that doesn’t wash either: What would have happened if Bolsonaro had won the election? Would the judges also prevent him from travelling abroad, as President-elect? I very much doubt that – which means that the judges were conflating executive and judicial powers.

To those who tell me that the Bolsonaro clan is a fascistic, criminal family, my reply is: You and I may very well think that. Alas, the judiciary has no right to use its powers to indict and to pursue someone because – or immediately after – they lost an election. It is shameful, to be precise. And it is also dangerous for those of us on the left who know what it means to be banned and hounded by rogue judges and police commissioners.

But I also have a message to Bolsonaro supporters, or those sitting on the fence, who assume that Lula is somehow behind the judges. He is not! This is the same court that imprisoned, falsely, Lula himself. What we have in Brazil is a judiciary that overreaches and habitually crosses the line that ought to separate judicial from political power.
It is such a shame that a judge took it upon himself to go after Bolsonaro on the eve of his defeat and, in doing so, to sully Lula’s stupendous victory.
One last point that my comrades in Brazil should note: If Bolsonaro and Rubio wanted to mount a campaign against Lula and Brazilian democracy they could never have been aided better than by that judge’s reckless writ.

[Khoa Vu @KhoaVuUmn]

I usually just ask "How many QJE have you published in the last 5 years?"

[Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 @Noahpinion]

Honestly, yes. The econ profession is extremely hierarchical and deferent to authority; few junior people will risk their careers by exposing errors by older, prestigious researchers. So doing it pseudonymously -- but checkably! -- makes sense.

[Chris Blattman @cblatts]

@ShuklaAngira So when I worked closely with, I just did a Zoom interview with a candidate that had already been screened twice by HR. About 20 minutes in, he realized this was probably an AI that he was interviewing live on video.

[Chris Blattman @cblatts]

For those hiring predocs and other quantitative research assistants, how are you doing advanced tests and interviews in the age of AI?

We used to do a mix of coding and statistical tests, followed by interviews, and are trying to evolve.

If you want to DM me or email me directly, I'll share collected wisdom with everyone who contacts me with their ideas or best practices.

[Chris Blattman @cblatts]

@markgsheppard Exactly. What are we testing for now? I have some ideas, and I'm going to write them out, but I'm curious to collect what others are doing.

[Chris Blattman @cblatts]

@k_sonin This is part of what I'm planning to do, but I also want them to show me their AI work because I want to see how they use AI. They're actually incentivized to use AI and show me how they use the AI.

[Chris Blattman @cblatts]

My own philosophy has a lot to do with what at UChicago we call "with, without, and about": demonstrating you can do tasks with AI, demonstrating you can do certain tasks without AI, and showing that you know about AI and how it works.

[Chris Blattman @cblatts]

@mtkonczal @arpitrage It's currently about 6 months out of date.

[Chris Blattman @cblatts]

@mtkonczal @arpitrage By Friday, we'll have updated https://t.co/sfjhpJsXDo with a starter kit with all the skills to do so.

[Chris Blattman @cblatts]

Now let's run the same experiment with managers and super capable employees. :)

[Alex Imas @alexolegimas]

This is one of the most important pieces of social science on human and AI interaction that I’ve seen in some time. Experts follow agentic advice the vast majority of the time (causally), but only a tiny fraction credit the agent—majority think they came to decision on their own volition.

Reminds me of the classic Nisbett and Wilson study on people following outside influence without realizing it

“ But as more work is handed to AI—including AI safety research—these judgment calls are the main levers for people's own values to influence outcomes.

If people defer to AI without noticing, then "human in the loop" might provide less assurance than people expect.”

[Alex Imas @alexolegimas]

This is one of the most important pieces of social science on human and AI interaction that I’ve seen in some time. Experts follow agentic advice the vast majority of the time (causally), but only a tiny fraction credit the agent—majority think they came to decision on their own volition.

Reminds me of the classic Nisbett and Wilson study on people following outside influence without realizing it

“ But as more work is handed to AI—including AI safety research—these judgment calls are the main levers for people's own values to influence outcomes.

If people defer to AI without noticing, then "human in the loop" might provide less assurance than people expect.”

[Chris Blattman @cblatts]

@mtkonczal @arpitrage 3 different firms