agree theyβre separate outcomes. but do you see a case for doing this with QQQ options?
obviously there are more variables than a fixed binary, but thatβs also the interesting part.
if your thesis is βFed does X β large move in tech,β an option lets you express a view on the distribution of QQQ outcomes rather than needing to be right about a single binary.
the question is whether that convexity is mispriced relative to the expected move.