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@PolitlcsUK@Nigel_Farage@elonmusk
I asked grok what to do about Capital Gains Tax in the UK.
If I were in charge of UK tax policy, here’s a fair, evidence-based CGT strategy grounded in economic reality, not ideology.
Current system (as of 2026/27 tax year):
•Annual Exempt Amount (AEA): £3,000 per individual.
•Rates: 18% on gains within the basic-rate income tax band; 24% on the rest (applies equally to shares, residential property, crypto, etc.).
•Business Asset Disposal Relief (BADR) / Investors’ Relief: now 18% (up from 14%).
•No inflation indexation.
•Private Residence Relief and loss offset rules remain, but the whole thing is still complex, distorting, and unfair in places.
This setup raises ~£15 bn a year but creates lock-in (people delay sales), asset-class arbitrage (even if rates are now aligned), and income-shifting by owner-managers who turn labour income into cheaper capital gains. Studies from the Institute for Fiscal Studies and others show that hiking rates further without fixing the base either raises peanuts or loses revenue because behaviour changes. Cutting rates without fixing the base just subsidises inefficient tax planning.
My strategy: “Real Gains, Simple Rules, Growth First”
I would redesign CGT around three non-negotiable principles:
1Tax only real economic profit (not inflation).
2Simplicity and neutrality (one set of rules, no gaming the system).
3Growth-friendly (don’t punish saving, risk-taking or entrepreneurship; the UK needs more of all three if we’re serious about productivity).
1. Mandatory CPI indexation of cost base
•Uplift acquisition cost by CPI from purchase date to disposal date.
•Only the real gain above inflation is taxable. This is the single biggest fairness fix. Taxing nominal gains is literally taxing money illusion. Every major economy that has done this (or never stopped) sees less distortion and more honest revenue. It also stops the government quietly inflating away your wealth via the tax system.
2. Flat 20% rate on all real gains (above AEA)
•Applies to every asset class: shares, second homes, buy-to-lets, crypto, collectibles — no more 18/24 split, no special residential rate.
•Gains stack on top of your income for determining which band you fall into, but the rate itself is a clean flat 20%. Why 20%? It is higher than the current basic-rate CGT slice but lower than the 24% higher-rate slice and far below top income-tax + NI rates. It strikes the evidence-based balance: high enough to raise serious revenue, low enough to keep investment and realisation flowing. (IFS modelling shows big rate hikes lose money; modest, predictable cuts with a cleaner base raise it.)
3. Raise and index the AEA
•New AEA: £6,000, automatically indexed to CPI every year. Small investors, ISA refugees and people selling a few shares or a car on eBay get a meaningful tax-free buffer without complex planning.
4. Keep the socially useful reliefs, simplify the rest
•Private Residence Relief → untouched. Homes are not investment vehicles for most people; we don’t need to tax family housing mobility.
•BADR / Entrepreneurs’ Relief → keep a 10% rate but cap lifetime gains at £2 million (double current effective benefit) and tighten to genuine founders/active directors only. Encourage genuine business exits, not tax-arbitrage holding companies.
•Losses → full offset against any gains, unlimited carry-forward. No more artificial restrictions.
•Carried interest → already moving to income tax; I’d keep it there.
5. Reporting & payment
•Same 30-day reporting for residential property.
•Everything else via Self Assessment with pre-filled HMRC data where possible.
•No exit tax or deemed disposal on leaving the UK (counter-productive for a global city like London). Just ensure gains accrued while UK-resident are taxed on realisation.
Why this is fairer than the status quo
@KobeissiLetter NATO is a defensive alliance under Article 5 for collective defense of member territories. The current Iran conflict is an offensive military campaign in the Middle East, not a defensive scenario triggered by an attack on the US or Europe.