Hypermind

Prediction markets since 2000 (previously NewsFutures).

[Ochlosophe @ochlosophe]

Candidats à la présidentielle ?
🔴 Mélenchon 98%
⚫ Le Pen 95%
🌹 Glucksmann 90%
🟡 Philippe 88%
⚫ Zemmour 85%
🔴 Roussel 78%
🔵 Lisnard 69%
🔵 Retailleau 63%
🟡 Attal 30%
⚪ Villepin 28%
🟢 Tondelier 23%
🔴 Ruffin 21%
🌹 Hollande 17%
🟡 Lecornu 4%
⚫ Bardella 3%
⚫ Maréchal 3%

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

Lend your brain to Ukraine! Glimt is a joint project of the Swedish and Ukrainian governments, powered by Hypermind, open to everyone. Perhaps the first use case of crowd forecasting as a weapon of war against evil. Join us here: https://t.co/76mNu4Az7t
@kikollan @NunoSempere @jorgebmontanes @PTetlock @robinhanson @JamesSurowiecki @JustinWolfers @IgnatiusPost @pennockd @DavMicRot @Scott_E_Page @page_eco @GlimtCommunity @FOIresearch

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

Tuesday morning Election 2024 forecast landscape: Skilled forecasters panels favor Harris, betting platforms favor Trump, and statistical models have no idea.

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

@ochlosophe @Onefora29958575 Agreed.

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

@ochlosophe @Onefora29958575 Whatever happens, nobody will be totally right or totally wrong. It's just probabilities on a single event.

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

Final pre-election day forecast landscape. Skilled forecasters give an edge to Harris. Betting markets (except PredictIt) give an edge to Trump. Statistical models occupy the toss-up middle-ground.

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

Harris' chances continued to improve overnight.

Interestingly, the US-based mrkts give her better odds (51% avrg) than the foreign-based mrkts (46% avrg).

She's the favorite of the skilled forecasters panels (Hypermind, Good Judgment, Metaculus), with 55% probability avrg.

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

Accelerating Kamalamentum in the last few days before the vote.

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

@JamesSurowiecki Kamalamentum, forecasting platforms edition

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

@peterwildeford It's just a correction back toward the true odds.

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

@leomschwartz

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

@ochlosophe Garbage in, garbage out.

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

Comparative analysis of Harris vs Trump forecasts over the last month. @GJ_Open @superforecaster @metaculus @FiveThirtyEight @TheEconomist @ManifoldMarkets @PredictIt @Betfair @Polymarket @Kalshi

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

@ochlosophe « Prediction polls » est le terme technique. Voir https://t.co/l6sMETeggB

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

@robinhanson

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

It is remarkable that our prediction market is now (Oct 26) the only crowd-forecasting or statistical model that still gives Kamala Harris slightly more chances of winning (54%) than losing. All others are now favoring Trump more or less boldly.

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

Join the FIGHT to make the most accurate forecasts about swing states and congressional control! New contest launched today with > $1,000 reward. https://t.co/QeP6ufkRUG

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

@nikosbosse you might also be interested in this research on infectious disease crowd forecasting that we conducted with Johns Hopkins : https://t.co/RtGkyhpRWS

[Hypermind @Hypermind_com]

@nikosbosse Thanks @nikosbosse. We have not drawn any conclusions yet. Just getting started. Need to gather more data, including 2024.