$SIVE reported weak Q1 today revenue down 22%, losses wider, beat by nothing. Fair to be disappointed by the numbers. But I didn’t invest because Q1 was going to print gangbusters. I invested because the structural problem it solves is real and getting bigger every day.
It is an investment not trading.
Every institution and retail investor is now in front of their computer doing $XFAB researches and analysis, confirming @aleabitoreddit’s thesis. Most people who bought today will keep their positions. Accumulation and position building will start in the next week. We will see volatility.
I didn’t know about it till recently, did my part of research too
The German government, with the EU’s blessing, is giving X-FAB €128 million as a direct grant to help build a brand-new MEMS + advanced packaging factory next to its existing Erfurt plant. In return, X-FAB has committed to prioritize EU orders in times of crisis and to provide educational and training measures
@aleabitoreddit As long as it's a win-win situation, nobody cares. You may add before announcing, but your thesis is real. Complaints are from people who think they missed the entry or the thesis.
The German government, with the EU’s blessing, is giving X-FAB €128 million as a direct grant to help build a brand-new MEMS + advanced packaging factory next to its existing Erfurt plant. In return, X-FAB has committed to prioritize EU orders in times of crisis and to provide educational and training measures
$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in.
Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players.
> 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI
> Silicon Photonics / CPO exposure with $NVDA as evaluation stage for high volume manufacturing (optical transceivers/switches)
> The only high-volume SiC foundry in the US.
> One of the critical MEMS foundries
> ~1.29 P/B, which was around what $SOI was sitting at when I went long. Depressed valuations due to legacy drag
> ~6.5-8.5 fwd p/e 2028 personal est.
> backstopped by Government:
- EU CHIPS act, $128M Euros
- US CHIPS act $50M PMT (department of commerce).
With likely more coming (just signals critical importance to Western supply chains).
So at a certain point with all the grants, they’re just getting the capex funded by the Governments.
EU CHIPS act 2 is coming out this week, and I’m gonna go ahead and guess $XFAB might get included given they were before, and this package is specifically targeting photonics.
~$1.3B MC seems compelling to me if it can pull a Soitec reversal (low p/b, very high growth segments, auto legacy drag).
As for the $NVDA silicon photonics relationships it’s under “photonixFAB”.
Markets probably missed this silicon photonics relationship (like $TSEM when I went long) with Nvidia since XFab leads this… Just under a different name.
For power semis, XFAB is named for SiC + $NVTS. In PCN-22181, $POWI explicitly names XFAB as its foundry.
Given its exposure to power semis and photonics as growth, low P/B, gov backstop (of course dyor, just sharing my personal thoughts)
Thought it personally seemed compelling.
Retail is sleeping, but smart money just aggressively woke up to Smoltek Nanotech $SMOL. +43% today and the structural re-rating is just starting.
This European micro-cap holds the carbon nanotech patents to solve TWO massive global bottlenecks:
1️⃣ AI Hardware: Their ultra-thin CNF-MIM capacitors solve critical power delivery and thermal constraints for next-gen AI chips and HPC.
2️⃣ Green Hydrogen: Their electrode tech cuts the need for hyper-expensive Iridium in PEM electrolyzers by up to 95%.
Pure deep-tech play tackling the absolute core of the compute and energy crises. The upside potential here is generational as industrial validation ramps up.
I am long on this one. 🚀
@Ren_aramb I've been in since 3 weeks. Patience is key. I'm watching this Yageo partnership. I believe once it is done, a new one will come after, but they need money. I hope they don’t go into dilution.
AR glasses need waveguides.
Obducat makes them.
No official announcement that they have an AR glasses customer.
CEO Henri Bergstrand recently bought shares to reach 25% ownership of the company.
Here’s the AR glasses thesis that matters one to watch in the coming weeks.
Meta needs 30M AR glasses by 2030, requiring 60M waveguides.
The industry currently produces 200K per year.
The gap is catastrophic.
Obducat’s nanoimprint lithography is the manufacturing solution.
But they don’t just sell equipment—they’re a foundry.
They manufacture waveguides themselves, which means:
✓ Better yields (85%+ vs. 40%)
✓ Supply certainty (no competing for capacity)
✓ Fast iteration (tight feedback loops)
Meta is already supply-constrained.
Obducat’s Portugal expansion signals a bet they will be one of the suppliers filling that gap.
If they capture 5-10% of the waveguide market by 2030:
SEK 44M → SEK 200M+ revenue.
That’s a 4-5x business.
@athuinvests Market reaction cannot be predicted, a sell off is most probably, institutions will watch then buy the dil, NASDAQ listing confirms, a new ATH…
@kilex68 It is long-term. I want to watch the AR glasses market thesis to see if it is true and how far they can get. The CEO bought more shares last week.
OBDU.B Why this tiny Swedish company just exploded +500% in a month?
Obducat makes nano-stamping machines think a rubber stamp that works at 1/10,000th the width of a human hair, used to make defense optics, sensors & photonics components.
43 employees. Nearly broke. Then this happened 👇
A European defense customer already under contract just came back and said:
“We want more. A lot more.”
Old deal: ~SEK 30M over 3 years
New deal: SEK 115M over 3 years (minimum)
That’s nearly 4x bigger and worth almost 3x the company’s entire annual revenue.
Why can’t the customer just switch suppliers?
Because qualifying a new manufacturer for precision defense optics takes YEARS.
Do your research and prove that i am wrong
Once you’re in, you’re in. That’s the moat.