Private Amit

Private Chatting Account
breaking down tech, business, & stocks $PLTR

[amit @amitisinvesting]

Why are the markets holding on to a bit of green today?

Last night, Axios reported a potential 45-day ceasefire was being negotiated. That flipped futures green.

This morning, we got a response from Iran rejecting the ceasefire, but...they did send a 10-point proposal to the US.

The main points in the proposal are calling for a full end to the war and being paid for the damages.

The US hasn't responded and likely will counter their points again, but it does seem like negotiations are taking place and if they are, that may be enough for the markets to think that Trump's Tuesday deadline isn't as aggressive in escalating the war as was thought.

Trump just now: "They've made a proposal, and it's a significant proposal...it's not good enough, but it's a very significant step."

[amit @amitisinvesting]

AXIOS: IRAN MEDITATORS ARE MAKING A “LAST-DITCH” ATTEMPT FOR A 45-DAY CEASEFIRE

This is probably Egypt and Pakistan trying to create some level of meaningful communication between the US and Iran.

All eyes are on 8PM ET Tuesday, the new deadline for a deal from Trump begins a new campaign of attacks.

Futures like the headline with the S&P eliminating all losses so far.

[amit @amitisinvesting]

TRUMP:

OPEN THE F***** STRAIT

oh boy

[amit @amitisinvesting]

so do we think we’ve bottomed or no

all the weekend headlines just feel like escalation

but monday morning, could easily see Trump just retract or delay his warnings again

oil still ridiculously high…earnings season with bad guidance because of uncertainty wouldn’t be the best…

maybe an April 9th 2.0 scenario?

just so confusing to try to analyze the market not on fundamentals but on new headlines daily…

[amit @amitisinvesting]

$PLTR

This is one of the coolest interviews I've ever done with a Palantir customer.

Mixology is not only a small business, but they are a small business that tried many things before they found Palantir.

Once they did, everything changed.

Thank you to CEO @JordanEdwards7 for taking the time to sit down and explain why working with Palantir created magic-like results for your business!

[amit @amitisinvesting]

NONFARM JOB PAYROLLS REPORT TODAY:

The US added +178K jobs, ahead of the +65K expected. Unemployment rate went down from 4.4% to 4.3%.

This was the highest gain since March of 2025.

However…last month’s revision also came in.

The -92K was revised to -133K, the worst month for job losses since December 2020.

If the March numbers are actually real, which now is hard to believe because every month just gets revised the next month (2025 ended up getting a revision for -1M jobs on the year) then it’s a really strong beat and healthy for the economy.

It’s likely not the best for inflation because more jobs = more spending which is why the 10-year picked up, but it is good for earnings.

If the job numbers aren’t real, eventually we will see the revision but a lower number could end up reducing inflation which maybe gives a better chance at a rate cut.

It’s just putting the Fed in a hard spot because the inflation numbers make it hard to cut and the massive jobs beat also proves the labor market isn’t weak enough to cut.

If oil could come down…and jobs continue to go up…we’d have the best of both worlds but as of now that scenario is not playing out.

[amit @amitisinvesting]

TRUMP'S ADDRESS TO THE NATION TONIGHT ARE CAUSING FUTURES TO GO RED.

1. Trump said that the war is essentially over but that the US would continue a bombing campaign for 2 weeks. Market did not like that.

2. Trump said that if a deal is not reached in the next 2 weeks then the US will conduct strikes on energy infrastructure in Iran. Market did not like that.

3. Trump said that NATO countries are doing nothing to help and that if they want oil they should either buy it from the US or go to the Strait and take it themselves. Markets once again did not like that Trump is essentially downplaying the importance of the Strait being open by claiming that oil can easily be bought from the US.

Overall, this was supposed to be a speech that confirmed to the markets that the war was coming to a near end. Although Trump said that, it was not implied given his other statements. Oil is now above $103. Gold and Silver are down. The S&P is losing 1% overnight.

We did make a 3.75% move on the S&P, adding $2T+ to the stock market in the past 48 hours. It would not surprise me or should surprise anyone if we give some of that back, but the reason for why we are giving it back (more escalation in the war) is actually why we seem to be seeing the downside momentum overnight.

This might just be low volume, this might easily flip green tomorrow as the market goes back to thinking the war will be over, or this might actually create a downslide that loses any momentum we achieved over the past 2 days because of the uncertainty that once again has been created due to the Strait being closed and the war potentially continuing to escalate.

Markets now decide how they feel about this tomorrow.

[amit @amitisinvesting]

SPACEX HAS OFFICIALLY FILED FOR AN IPO.

SpaceX Revenue — $15B, targeting a $1.75T valuation

$META Revenue — $200B, currently at a $1.45T valuation

Are you buying the SpaceX IPO?

[amit @amitisinvesting]

TRUMP:

IRAN’S PRESIDENT HAS ASKED FOR A CEASEFIRE

[amit @amitisinvesting]

Trump: “We will be leaving Iran very soon. We will be done in 2 weeks, maybe 3. Gas prices will go down as soon as we leave. As you can see, stock prices were up today.”

[amit @amitisinvesting]

$NKE

10-year lows on missed guidance

pretty incredible that even with insider buying and the Supreme Court Tariff ruling, nothing helped

is Nike a just a brand that no one cares about is the question now…

$NKE -8%

[amit @amitisinvesting]

if this all just an April Fools joke that gets exposed tomorrow then we should have permission to cry about it

[amit @amitisinvesting]

if i actually got the bottom yesterday you guys can’t make any more bottom jokes about me

just wish it was with more than $2500 lmao

regardless…would be fine buying more as we are still down heavily from the highs but still feel like we need real confirmation

haven’t had a +2.5% day actually hold on the S&P in a long time…maybe we are closer to the end of all of this

is anyone buying into relative strength today?

[amit @amitisinvesting]

Two reasons we are green today:

1. WSJ headline last night said Trump is willing to end the war without re-opening the Strait.

2. Trump post this morning basically “confirmed” this by telling allies to buy oil from the US, not the Strait, essentially making the claim that the Strait is not as important.

Now, it’s obviously very important, but Trump can’t leave Iran with the *perception* that they left in order for Iran to feel comfortable to reopen the Strait.

He needs to leave with people feeling that the Strait doesn’t matter so that if the US does leave, Iran can tell their people that they forced the US out and now can reopen it but Trump will tell the American people that we left because there was nothing else to do since we destroyed the military and the Iranians are opening it because they need the oil money, not because the US wasn’t able to militarily get them to reopen it which is WHY he is now downplaying the importance of the Strait.

The market doesn’t care about anything other than the Strait opening and today, for now, the market feels that maybe there is a better chance of it opening which is why we seem to be green…

Until the next headline.

What. A. Volatile. Market.

[amit @amitisinvesting]

WSJ:

“Trump told aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, likely extending Tehran’s firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date.”

futures like it

[amit @amitisinvesting]

IRAN SAYS THEY HAVEN’T HAD A SINGLE NEGOTIATION WITH THE US IN 31 DAYS 💀

markets…don’t like that

Iranian Foreign Ministry:

- We have not conducted any negotiations with the United States during the 31 days of the war.

- What happened is a request for negotiations accompanied by American proposals that reached us through some intermediaries, including Pakistan

- Our position is clear, and it is that we are dedicating all our efforts to defending our sovereignty amid the continuation of American aggression.

[amit @amitisinvesting]

is anyone listening to Bill Ackman and buying the dip

[amit @amitisinvesting]

So…

Trump today says in the pre-markets that negotiations are once again going well and we will get a deal soon…

Market pumps. Almost 1.5% on $SPY.

Market opens…people use the pump as a way to exit and we dump. Now barely green on $SPY. Oil spikes to $103.

The playbook is becoming comical but it also does not easily allow any buy the dips or shorts because there is no trend, you may be able to time the opening move but if the market thinks the war continues…any dip buy gets punished. If Trump tries to convince the market that the war is over, any short can get ripped badly.

It is one of the most incredible times to see how prices react to headlines and it feels like the covered call is somewhat of a solution but realistically, until this war ends, there is no way to accurately even try to think you easily have a gameplan.

[amit @amitisinvesting]

$PLTR

Palantir announces a 5-Year expansion with Stellantis today.

This was one of the first case studies for Palantir in the automotive space and really showed the ability for them to handle multiple overlapping issues ranging from supply chains, inventory, forecasting, and more.

It also is a perfect example of Palantir’s thesis on AI empowering vs replacing workers and giving them agency which is why it is very strong to see a 5 year extension, basically this is Stellantis saying “it’s working.”

More and more deals…more and more partnerships…more and more extensions.

Pure domination.

[Private Amit @IROLLEK]

@Ladyb_dplug @grok who is this woman in the photo 📸