Insanity: with a market cap of $2.96 trillion, SpaceX just passed Microsoft to become the 4th largest company in the world.
Microsoft Sales: $318 billion
Microsoft Net Income: $125 billion
SpaceX Sales: $19 billion
SpaceX Net Income: -$9 billion
@jameslavish Big fan of SpaceX. Most of the leftists
screeching against it are off-base.
It’s also wildly overvalued. From a fundamental analyst perspective at 100x sales it makes no sense.
But Tesla at 15x sales and 3 years is no growth doesn’t make sense, either.
Can’t short the vibes.
Strategy has acquired 1,550 BTC for $101 million to increase our $BTC Reserve to ₿845,256. We have also increased our USD Reserve by $100 million to $1.0 billion. $MSTR $STRC https://t.co/1Zf1AVsP1H
A few thoughts on @BitMNR and its preferred offering 🧵
This has clearly been in the works for a while, but the timing is actually very interesting.
STRC proved you can raise fixed-income-chasing capital at scale. If you're paying 9.5%/yr and ETH gives you ~3% native staking yield, the implicit bet is just that ETH compounds >6.5% CAGR. That's not a bold ask, especially in a market where ETH is alreayd down 60%+
The offering is $300M → ~$28.5M/yr in dividends to service.
@BitMNR holds ~5.4M ETH today. Add the ~200k ETH they'll buy with proceeds → call it 5.6M ETH, roughly a $10B treasury at spot.
At 3% staking yield, that's ~$300M/yr in revenue.
The dividend is less than 10% of that.
Even in a bear case where ETH crashes to $600, they're still generating ~$100M/yr: 3.5x the dividend obligation.
So from a pure coverage ratio standpoint, they could probably raise $1B in preferred and still sleep at night.
The deeper point: if mNAV is compressed below 1x, preferred is the only intelligent capital raise. You're not issuing dilutive common at a discount to NAV, you're issuing fixed-cost debt-like paper and buying the dip with it.
And unlike @Strategy, @fundstrat is accumulating ETH at much more attractive average prices. The cost basis story here is meaningfully better than Strategy's BTC entry points were.
@fundstrat is going to buy the dip aggressively. The structure supports it. The timing might too.
This is clearly bullish for $ETHBTC. Strategy is maxed out and will probably have to pause purchases for a while, if not actually become a net seller. @BitMNR , on the contrary, is just getting started, and they have over $200 million in annual staking profits to support the dividend. $BMNR
@EricBalchunas That's good to know. Crypto natives will be the quickest to return once the four-year cycle and halving narrative kick back in, likely in about a year.
The boomers aren't your problem btw, neither is Saylor. If it weren't for them bitcoin would be REALLY in the sht. Think about it: They are net net $150b of buying (even with the outflows which are pretty tiny tbh). Price was at $125k. ETFs barely saw outflows. Saylor bought more. And yet here we are. Forget the boomers, someone needs to 'call the OGs' - they are behind this.