Ian Willings

[Lance Roberts @LanceRoberts]

The team from @bcaresearch published the following chart of the U.S. Equity Risk Indicator, which is flashing red, warning that the S&P 500 may be running hot. History shows that once this metric hits extreme levels, corrective periods tend to follow.
h/t @ISABELNET_SA

[Frank Curzio @FrankCurzio]

Elon Musk is telling you to buy robotics stocks.

"There will be at least a billion robots in 10 years, each producing at least 5x the output of a human"

Morgan Stanley says robots are a $5 TRILLION market by 2050.

Here are 7 stocks positioned to benefit:👇

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

@Geiger_Capital When was the last time any Fed chairman raised rates with $8T in USTs (over 25% of US GDP) maturing in <1 year?

[Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA]

This is one of the most important charts for bond investors. It shows that the correlation between equity returns and bond yields has turned negative. Long-term bonds are no longer a good hedge against declines in stock prices. This has reduced the demand for bonds, pushing up yields.

[Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan]

Ray Dalio: “The debt problem is followed by devaluation of the currency.”

Every country with a debt problem said they would grow their way out of debt.

They all ended up devaluing their currencies.

[ludoonchart @ludoonchart]

Scott Bessent helped George Soros make roughly $3.5 billion on the Abenomics trade from 2012 to 2015 - but says the real edge in macro investing is much simpler: “we study history, we observe the present, and try to imagine the future”

this is him explaining why macro isn’t really about predicting every economic number. Bessent looks for regime changes, policy mistakes and situations where the market is pricing one outcome while the range of possible outcomes is much wider

Bessent says he doesn’t even use a Bloomberg terminal and instead looks through around 270 charts every night - searching for anomalies, things that are changing, or something in the market that simply looks unsustainable

full interview below

[Barchart @Barchart]

Commodities have never been this cheap relative to Stocks 🚨 🚨

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

US National Debt is now 124% of GDP, 4x higher than the early 1980s.

This isn’t coming after a depression or world war.

We’re running massive deficits during an economic expansion with the unemployment rate at 4%.

That should concern everyone.

Video: https://t.co/2o90BjNu3y

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

This chart is a good reminder that the mining industry is generating profits on a scale no other sector in the market can even come close to matching.

https://t.co/8dCwbGBa2W

[Global_Macro @Marcomadness2]

A lost decade in bonds well under way

[Lance Roberts @LanceRoberts]

The PEG ratio for the S&P 500 has fallen to secularly low levels.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

There's 2 views on rising long-term yields: (i) this is just a normalization and no big deal; (ii) this is the slow beginning of a debt crisis. The truth is in between, but the barrage of verbal intervention from Treasury tells you things are NOT fine...
https://t.co/mZeuq7C7SZ

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

“Under my administration, we will be slashing energy and electricity prices by half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months.” - President Trump, August 2024

“I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars.” - President Trump, November 2024

"During every single day of the administration, I will, very simply, put America first." - President Trump, January 2025

"I view the Strait of Hormuz as an American territory right now. It’s an American territory." - President Trump, August 2026

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

BREAKING: Rice prices have surged over +47% since the start of the Iran War

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

While gold declines... money printing has reaccelerated.

None of the fundamentals that drove gold to record highs have reversed. If anything, they've become even stronger.

- Central banks are still net buyers of gold.
- Global debt levels remain unsustainable.
- Government deficits continue to surge.

This war is reinforcing all of those trends.

Bessent's continuous interventions across multiple markets just show the game plan here.

Rather than risk the bond market, policymakers will sacrifice the currency through inflation.

This gold bull market is far from over.

[CoinMarginalX @CoinMarginalX]

🚨 Ray Dalio on the coming US debt crisis: "We're going to do it the way that we always do it devalue the currency, print money, and create an artificially low interest rate so bondholders get shortchanged. That's the way Japan has done it... and that's the way we will do it."

[Lance Roberts @LanceRoberts]

The share of unprofitable companies in the Russell 2000 is picking up. What is interesting is that those increases historically occur during weaker economic conditions (i.e., recessions) and then recover afterward. Following the pandemic, it didn't.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Earnings are growing faster than stock prices, per Bloomberg:

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Nearly 40% cumulative inflation in a decade.

Trillion-dollar deficits.
Exploding national debt.
Money printing.
A Fed that fanned the flames.

This is what happens when fiscal and monetary discipline disappear. Americans are left paying the bill.

Video: https://t.co/4R1MpUU06W

[Sean Zubick @SeanZubick]

Gold miners just flipped from capital destroyers to free-cash-flow machines — and the market is still underpricing it.

Large asset managers prioritize FCF per share in mining because earnings can be noisy. Strong, rising FCF funds dividends, buybacks, and growth without dilution — exactly what was missing in prior cycles.

Record cash generation + attractive yields vs a stretched broader market create one of the clearest fundamental setups for capital rotation into gold equities in years. The re-rating is still early.

The sector stopped burning cash and started printing it. Valuations haven’t fully caught up.

Another wonderful chart by @TaviCosta