Fundamentally, Oil at $130/barrel would be a medium term objective, but at these prices, it’s not logical to buy the asset as a swing trade, not after the initial bullish explosion we’ve seen.
Most traders do not realize they’re chasing the fomo from missing the initial move from $56/barrel - $119/barrel. I could be wrong, and it goes higher from here, but below $77/barrel would be the most ideal to stack new swings again.
I know my thesis makes no sense here lol, but a saying that’s helped me through markets like these is: “While other investors are chasing fast money due to increased volatility, prioritizing safety pays in the long run”.
A long run mentality always eventually outperforms a fomo mentality.
Steve Jobs on Failure (1994):
"I've actually always found something to be very true, which is most people don't get those experiences because they never ask.
I've never found anybody that didn't want to help me if I asked them for help. I always call them up.
I called up, this will date me, but I called up Bill Hewlett when I was 12 years old, and he lived in Palo Alto.
His number was still in the phone book. And he answered the phone himself.
He said, yes?
I said, hi, I'm Steve Jobs. I'm 12 years old. I'm a student in high school, and I want to build a frequency counter. And I was wondering if you had any spare parts I could have.
And he laughed, and he gave me the spare parts to build this frequency counter, and he gave me a job that summer in Hewlett-Packard working on the assembly line, putting nuts and bolts together on frequency counters.
He got me a job in the place that built them. And I was in heaven.
And I've never found anyone who said no or hung up the phone When I call, I just ask.
And when people ask me, I try to be as responsive to pay that debt of gratitude back.
Most people never pick up the phone and call. Most people never ask.
And that's what separates sometimes the people that do things from the people that just dream about them.
You've got to act.
And you've got to be willing to fail.
You've got to be willing to crash and burn with people on the phone, with starting a company, with whatever. If you're afraid of failing, you won't get very far.