Immutable Edge 🧵

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

@gumsays Meta one was kinda of priced in, stock is even up due to that, no more overhang.

Not saying you are "wrong", just saying that market that week maybe was down way more due to googl raise than just space x ipo.

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

They are even crashing coinbase.

"COINBASE GLOBAL INC: SOME USERS MAY CURRENTLY BE UNABLE TO CONVERT BRL TO BUY/SELL CRYPTO ON COINBASE"

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

Brazilians swapping BRL to BTC or what?

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

Brazil’s ~83% debt/GDP carries an interest bill of ~8–8.8% of GDP. The US is ~3.2% and Uruguay ~3%. When Uruguay elected a left-wing but clearly centrist and fiscally responsible president in 2024, currency, bonds and stocks barely moved. Different fiscal starting point and credibility produce very different market reactions

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

The ~25% drop in $EWZ isn’t because “markets hate left-wing people” or think Lula is the next Hitler. It’s a repricing of fiscal and currency risk in a world where capital is scarcer.

We’ve moved from a global savings glut to intense competition for liquidity, with the US absorbing a large share of flows. Emerging markets with high leverage get hit first. Brazil is exactly that: household debt is ~50% of income, debt service ~29%, and ~84 million people are in arrears. Public debt is already ~83% of GDP (up >10pp in this term). On top of that, the campaign featured expansionary measures (Bolsa Família hikes, fuel tax cuts, debt-relief promises).

Markets are simply pricing that the interest rate needed to keep the real from weakening is higher under this path than under the alternative. With the Selic still at 13.75% and consumers already stretched, banks and consumer stocks (EWZ is ~38% financials) are the most sensitive — that’s why they’re falling hardest.

It’s not ideology. It’s leverage + fiscal credibility in a tighter liquidity regime.

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

@irbezek @davevermilion Because isn´t just equities.

Is exchange rate, interest rate that has preassure the consumers etc, you know this.

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

Efficient markets.

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

Brazilians swapping BRL to BTC or what?

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

@drwconvexity Hedging and less sell preassure on CDS, derivatives would help a lot on re-rate.

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

XMR and ZEC are trading on different narratives.

Wanna hedge crypto getting smoked by AI hacks → $XMR.

Wanna hedge long-term financial privacy + strong BTC beta → $ZEC.

The ratio clearly moves with $BTC, and despite both being “privacy” coins the correlation looks negative, there is no "catch up".

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

wow what a surprise that after Antrophic launches models with no data retention the consumption surge vs open ai... lol
https://t.co/gYxNwTCC0K

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

New from OpenRouter: 7-day average token volume for Anthropic models is up 3.6x since the launch of Opus 5.5

Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 have also been well received.

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

OPEN AI has 0 data retention

Antrophic has 30 days data retention on Fable.

WOW so unexpected the result ....

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Extraordinary share gains for OpenAI vs. Anthropic over the last two months.

Per Openrouter, OpenAI has gone from 20% share to 50% share vs. Anthropic (meaning Anthropic has gone from 80% to 50%) since June.

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

between higher exploration because of AI and dollar devalue, makes sense commodities go up but at end of the day royalty land owners will be the main benefactors.

Exploration should go up but costs might go down due to robotics.

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

@gumsays Couple years of good psi20 performance for old ones or new under 30s nasdaq things ?

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

Everyone’s talking local models, but for small/old companies isn’t the cyber risk of going on-prem pretty high? Constant dynamic defense needed + no hyperscaler to back you if an incident happens.

Also odd that many cybersecurity stocks are so expensive — some individual ones valued like big slices of Amazon while AMZN has massive traffic share and strong cyber offerings.

Underrated point for hyperscallers, no ?

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

Uniswap’s investment in Pons looks like them backing an RH launchpad to stop Pump from launching a cross-chain launchpad and then competing for their business

Pons has since flopped, which may have left the door open for Pump. That outcome looks even more plausible after Alon publicly noted how straightforward limit orders were to build on EVM, signaling that a cross-chain launchpad is well within reach and that they’re confident enough to pursue it ?

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

Uniswap’s investment in Pons looks like them backing an RH launchpad to stop Pump from launching a cross-chain launchpad and then competing for their business

Pons has since flopped, which may have left the door open for Pump. That outcome looks even more plausible after Alon publicly noted how straightforward limit orders were to build on EVM, signaling that a cross-chain launchpad is well within reach and that they’re confident enough to pursue it ?

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

There’s this recent pull toward old money, old values, and a kind of constant déjà vu. At the same time technology keeps moving. The combination makes mechanical, nuclear, fusion, or just plain hard engineering startups feel more interesting than another virtual product. Virtual starts to look boring next to something you can actually touch.

The Alaska version is still the extreme case: one person, a bunch of robots, becomes a billionaire by going after a commodity. Even short of that, a friend who put $100k into some ai/robot investment in your city and is now pulling $50k a year in real income. Not paper gains.

A strong business cycle usually compresses stock multiples, good earnings isn´t good for stocks. Economies of scale will matter eventually (the biggest players and their robot fleets just get bigger), but that feels like a longer-term force. In the meantime the capital needed for real operations is large, so more money has to go somewhere other than stocks.

What would you tell a friend with $100k and no stock/crypto market knowledge: spend time learning the AI/products side and try to build real operations, or just throw it into stocks and memes and gamble?

Contrary to the current narrative, we might be closer to the top of financial content consumption compared to real engineering for people under 30s.

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

@based16z @blondesnmoney @KairosPraxis IBKR was the initial Hyperliquid.

Introducing brokers or the cases like Trading212.

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

@EnergyCredit1 As futures market for compute gets approved, we should see some unwind on the CDS to shorts on futures. Also ability for CRWV to hedge some of their exposure, making a multiple re-rate possib?

[Immutable Edge 🧵 @ImmutableSOL]

Musk said 13 GW to 20 GW next year.

Do the math on that for Nvidia earnings.

Also a lot of reports that AMZN accelerate the purchases of nvidia.

SMCI pre-release results today prob to remember people the connection with xai colossus.