Importance Sampling

Markets, economics, risk, City life.

[Importance Sampling @ImportanceSampl]

https://t.co/ctJDOQLFmq

[Importance Sampling @ImportanceSampl]

https://t.co/8hlJdCXPgM

[Importance Sampling @ImportanceSampl]

https://t.co/nuK1y1XMwn
Catching up on my geopolitics this weekend.

[Meb Faber @MebFaber]

Investing Quote of the Day: "It wasn’t false modesty that led me to choose the word ‘observer’ for the banner of my 12-page journal rather than say ‘soothsayer’ or ‘prophet.’ The truth is that I can’t forecast interest rates, and nobody can." - Jim Grant

[Meb Faber @MebFaber]

Best analogy I've heard recently for the bear case on AI (via @unpopularvc)

AI firms are like the airlines.

Amazing invention
Changed the world
Everyone uses them
Trillion dollar biz
.....but....
Extremely competitive
High capital requirements
Absolute garbage investment

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: $110 billion Absa is now the first African bank to offer crypto custody for Bitcoin and Ethereum

[Importance Sampling @ImportanceSampl]

People spend so much time and effort producing excellent podcasts only to spoil them with poor sound quality and low volume.

[Ben Sigman @bensig]

The amount of money pouring into data centers is astronomical.

The buildout of America’s railroads - one of the greatest infrastructure projects in history - reached roughly 1.6% of GDP.

We are now building AI infrastructure at an even larger scale - estimates are 2.8% of GDP.

This may be the largest infrastructure buildout of our lifetime.

[Importance Sampling @ImportanceSampl]

https://t.co/DNgqJjSPtr

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

The real danger is not that computers will begin to think like men, but that men will begin to think like computers.

— Sydney J. Harris

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Corporate America is axing the "micro-team" boss, per WSJ:

[Financial Times @FT]

The relentless creep of Britain’s compliance state https://t.co/Chaa2K0GOm

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

‘Greek finance minister encourages Germany to implement financial reforms,' per FT

[Harvard Business Review @HarvardBiz]

There are five types of intelligence that aspiring board members need to cultivate:
1. Financial fundamentals
2. Strategic thinking
3. Relationship building
4. Understanding your role
5. Cultural awareness
https://t.co/Xzi9XoJo9w

[NIK @ns123abc]

>math professor spends a year on one of the hardest unsolved problems in math
>"Navier-Stokes"
>his drafts for the whole project went through codex sessions
>openai had his logs in codex
>suddenly rumor leaks AI solved it
>he emails openai to ask what's going on
>openai calls within days
>"funny story, our model also solved it"
>using his exact approach
>asks openai: did you train on my sessions?
>no answer

[Importance Sampling @ImportanceSampl]

Another great episode. I just wish @blockworkspods could up their recording volume a little.

[Importance Sampling @ImportanceSampl]

https://t.co/8EGApDEWzB

[EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm]

I think Tether is positioning for a monetary system that becomes more dollarized for transactions but less dependent on dollar assets as the ultimate store of value. USDT converts global demand for digital dollars into demand for short term T bills, supporting the Treasury front end and reinforcing dollar hegemony. But Tether then uses part of the yield from those dollar assets to accumulate physical gold, effectively hedging the long term fiscal, inflation and geopolitical risks of the system it profits from.

The possibility they appear to be hedging is not the end of the dollar but fiscal dominance or financial repression where persistent deficits, structurally higher inflation and eventual Fed intervention erode the real value of sovereign claims. Stablecoins could become even more important for payments and collateral while investors increasingly prefer gold for long term savings and reserve protection.

In that world Tether wants T bills for liquidity and redemption, but gold for protection against sovereign and monetary risk. The dollar could win the payment system while gold simultaneously wins a larger share of the savings system.

[Importance Sampling @ImportanceSampl]

https://t.co/aaXhWFve1X

[Importance Sampling @ImportanceSampl]

At Manager Due-Dilligence teams as a first line guide on how to execute their function.

[Importance Sampling @ImportanceSampl]

FRM etc are helpful but don't help with the whole. 2nd line risk managers aren't macro researchers, they aren't stock pickers, they aren't quant fund managers. In trying to be more in line with the investment teams, to better govern over them, risk teams are better off looking...