Independent Strategy

Macro research based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be. Contact us for research access

[Independent Strategy @IndStrategy]

“ Living in the Grayzone” by David Roche sets out the architecture of the political economy in a world of mutually hostile alliances. It analyses how this changes society, the life of individuals and financial markets. Free download: https://t.co/9nqELEgnCa

[Independent Strategy @IndStrategy]

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[Independent Strategy @IndStrategy]

Learning to live in the gray zone 18th May 2023 - https://t.co/V7BRqTkT6i - The world is not at war, but neither is there a new cold war. The world is in a gray zone between the two. That will mean: a weaker dollar as the global reserve currency; more government spending, part...

[Independent Strategy @IndStrategy]

Turkey and Thailand - backward and forward 15th May 2023 - https://t.co/urcYQAyt8d - There were two key elections over the weekend. In Turkey, the result suggests no move forward; in Thailand, however, the prospects are much better. But still too risky to confirm.

[Independent Strategy @IndStrategy]

Banking Monitor 15th May 2023 - https://t.co/4tZKYrnFjT - Bank deposit outflows reversed in May to date. Regional bank stocks remained under pressure.

[Independent Strategy @IndStrategy]

Banking Monitor 8th May 2023 - https://t.co/Mn3TSl2h8z - The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate again last week and indicated that any fall in the rate was unlikely in 2023. And the Fed continued to reduce its balance sheet. Another regional bank, PacWest, suffered signifi...

[Independent Strategy @IndStrategy]

Two central banks - two policies for the same target 4th May 2023 - https://t.co/fO156YBHDG - The Fed and the ECB both raised their policy rates by 25bp. The Fed has paused. The ECB has not. So there will be high interest rates for longer in the case of the Fed and even higher...

[Independent Strategy @IndStrategy]

Banking Monitor 1st May 2023 - https://t.co/Qe7AyelpzU - The imminent sell-off of First Republic Bank is another chapter in the banking crisis. There was large outflow of deposits from the larger banks as tax payments were due. Bank credit to businesses has slowed to a trickle...

[Independent Strategy @IndStrategy]

Further contraction of credit to 'small America' 20th April 2023 - https://t.co/UvY0MX2uTk -

[Independent Strategy @IndStrategy]

Banking Monitor 24th April 2023 - https://t.co/nmGThgwqOf - With the immediate liquidity crisis over, the Fed has now returned to cutting its balance sheet, mainly through reductions in securities held and FX repos. However, total bank borrowing from the Fed’s facilities conti...

[Independent Strategy @IndStrategy]

Hitting the buffers 20th April 2023 - https://t.co/7x6l7HB6GH - HKD interest rates have dropped far below Fed-set USD rates in this cycle. Under a currency board system, that can’t go on forever. With the HKD again at the weakest point of its permissible band and interbank liq...

[Independent Strategy @IndStrategy]

Grain prices: Russian roulette 18th April 2023 - https://t.co/NdpfFAF2JT - Given the supply-demand fundamentals, the current historically high grain prices are not going to fall back. However, slowing global demand growth this year may curb any significant upward movement. The...

[Independent Strategy @IndStrategy]

Banking monitor 17th April 2023 - https://t.co/tpRuYrKN65 - The banking crisis in March appears to be over, according to the latest April data from the Federal Reserve. But underlying stresses remain.

[Independent Strategy @IndStrategy]

Small town America is a big town story 12th April 2023 - https://t.co/wde6ukPYQN - The SVB bankruptcy is a small bank story. But it is a global story for all big banks in big towns. That’s because SVB is a symptom of an illness, but not the sickness itself. Expect inflation to...

[Independent Strategy @IndStrategy]

Banking Monitor 10th April 2023 - https://t.co/PV9R1wRfqV - Total borrowing by banks from the Fed fell back a little last week and the Fed resumed its tightening mode. However, deposit outflows continued as depositors switched to money market funds and bank loans fell.

[Independent Strategy @IndStrategy]

AI & GPT (Generative Pre-trained Transformers) 5th April 2023 - https://t.co/ru5m7h2tmv - GPT is a part of the AI jigsaw. It is much hyped at the moment. But when it comes to its impact, it is probably less transformative than Quantum Computing and Big Data will ultimately be....

[Independent Strategy @IndStrategy]

Banking monitor 3rd April 2023 - https://t.co/G9RWDRgK7A - The banking panic subsided a little in the week ending 31 March. But investor confidence in the banks remains low and the interest-margin squeeze is still on.

[Independent Strategy @IndStrategy]

Banking Monitor 27th March 2023 - https://t.co/AAnLmi2CiJ - US commercial bank borrowing from the Federal Reserve facilities continued to rise last week, while deposits continued to move out of the banks into money market funds.

[Independent Strategy @IndStrategy]

The Fed - short or long-term gain? 22nd March 2023 - https://t.co/fJAkkcpY3y - The Fed did as expected and hiked 25bp. That means trouble later.

[Independent Strategy @IndStrategy]

The four dilemmas 20th March 2023 - https://t.co/HM5OUsSkKz -