Retired stock analyst to Wall St firms (Software, Internet, AI). Since 2008, have donated time to provide picks & education on professional stock analysis. ๐๐ฝ
For those looking for it, my "Finding Multibaggers" Spaces (https://t.co/E1TJmbX8Aa) & "Making Millions" video on YouTube (https://t.co/fzyw6Mecxr) are the two most critical episodes for anyone following my work.๐ฐ
@DougieFreshPick They only want to release male mosquitoes (which donโt bite humans or spread diseases), infected with Wolbachia, which causes female eggs to not hatch properly. Should greatly reduce the population, reducing diseases that mosquitoes carry.
My "ride the bubble" technique discussed on Friday's show yielded an average of 7% on the stocks we discussed...and our hedge ($RWM) was up 0.43%, so we were green across the board! https://t.co/mUpXThvnTR
๐ฅ๐๐ ๐ฒ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐% ๐๐ง๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ง๐ฌ!!๐ฅ
NO picks closed at a loss since MAY... of 2024 ! ๐๐ฅ๐
What do you expect from the guy who literally...
* Sold picks to Wall St in the '99 bubble
* Was paid by JIM CRAMER'S funds!
* Called the rise/fall of MoviePass (& was in the movie!)
* Nailed $DWAC before it wasย $DJT
* Lived one town from Roaring Kitty ๐น
$AEHR, $CXDO, $DELL, $DRSHF, $GEODF, $GKPRF, $GLD, $IDN, $INFU, $ITMSF, $IWM, $IZEA, $KRKNF, $MU, $NVDA, $OPTX, $SMCI, $TPCS, $TRAK, $TSSI, $TWLO, $VTSI, $WATT, $AKAM, $ARM, $AVEX, $CLFD, $EVLV, $DELL, $DUOT, $EVLV, $ITMSF, $MDB, $OKTA, $PPSI, $SNOW
Don't look now, but the stock everyone called boring is suddenly up 162% in my priority list ๐
https://t.co/DSgv7C2s5k
When you're using my method, "boring" is what an underappreciated stock gets called before it gets "exciting".
The priority list is...๐ฅ๐
$ALAR, $CXDO, $ECOR, $EVLV, $EVLV, $GEODF, $GKPRF, $IDN, $ITMSF, $IZEA, $KRKNF, $TPCS, $TSSI, $TSSI, $WATT
https://t.co/lnjDQ81F3H
Was a bit short and sloppy (due to celebrating my daughter's second birthday), but we discussed some of TODAY'S BANGERS on Friday's show! https://t.co/JdpmaiOCjr
Here's the complete list...
$AEHR, $AKAM, $ARM, $AVEX, $CLFD, $CURI, $DELL, $DUOT, $EVLV, $EVLV, $GKPRF, $ITMSF, $KRKNF, $MDB, $NVDA, $OKTA, $PPSI, $SNES, $SNOW, $TRAK, $TSSI, $TSSI, $TWLO, $WATT
2. I listened to @MoneyMarkStocks
I bought $OPTX at 6.70, and sold at 11.50
I bought $WATT at ~$15 (I ~2x my money in 2 months!)
I ~3xed my investment this year in $AEHR, I wish I margined when Fear/Greed hit single digits, but Schwab has conservative margin requirements
Also @ipo_candy is the real deal, I should have bought $AVEX at $25 ($38 rn), I can't win every time
My short term trades have resulted in me pushing off my job search which is nice
๐งต๐
A.I. (aye, I told you so) !
๐จ๐๐ญ๐จ๐๐ค ๐๐๐ฅ๐ค ๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐!!!๐จ
The 30-year Wall Street Technology & A.I. veteran who CRAMER PAID FOR PICKS is LIVE... NOW !!!
https://t.co/lnjDQ817e9
On last Friday's show, Money Mark identified $DELL and $TSSI as winners in the Anthropic / xAI data center deal... and how the market made the wrong move on $EVLV and $AVEX ... and BOOM! ๐ฅ๐
We've also highlighted $AEHR @ 3, $WATT @ 12, $NVDA @ 40, $MU @ 100, $ARM @ 100, $MRVL @ 70 (and numerous small cap A.I. multi-baggers)๐
Get today's A.I. update / picks + YOUR Q&A with our 1O,OOO global followers... NOW on Stock Talk Live! https://t.co/gKI6RpTIfx
๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ค:
Could Chinese DRAM impact $MU and $DRAM?
Lessons from 1999... how to ride a bubble!
$WATT CEO buys MORE stock!
AI earnings roundup $MBD $DELL $OKTA $SNOW etc.
๐ฅ๐๐ ๐ฒ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐% ๐๐ง๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ง๐ฌ!!๐ฅ
NO picks closed at a loss since MAY... of 2024 !
What do you expect from the guy who literally...
* Sold picks to Wall St in the '99 bubble
* Was paid by JIM CRAMER'S funds!
* Called the rise/fall of MoviePass (& was in the movie!)
* Nailed $DWAC before it wasย $DJT
* Lived one town from Roaring Kitty ๐น
$AEHR, $CTLP, $CURI, $CXDO, $DELL, $DRSHF, $GEODF, $GKPRF, $GLD, $IDN, $INFU, $ITMSF, $IWM, $IZEA, $KRKNF, $MOB, $MU, $NVDA, $OPTX, $SMCI, $TPCS, $TRAK, $TSSI, $TWLO, $VTSI, $WATT
Gave you $AVEX on the day it IPO'd (40 PT -- achieved!) and again on my weekly show Friday after traders wrongly sold it off after earnings๐ฅ๐
30 years of Wall Street experience at work. Direct link to my assessment
https://t.co/5infy1DL64
He also picked $AEHR @ 3, $WATT @ 12, $NVDA @ 40, $MU @ 100, $ARM @ 100, $MRVL @ 70 etc ๐
๐ฅ๐๐ ๐ฒ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐% ๐๐ง๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ง๐ฌ!!๐ฅ
1O,OOO global followers
NO picks closed at a loss since MAY... of 2024! What do you expect from the guy who literally...
* Sold picks to Wall St in the '99 bubble
* Was paid by JIM CRAMER'S funds!
* Called the rise/fall of MoviePass (& was in the movie!)
* Lived one town from Roaring Kitty ๐น
$AEHR, $CTLP, $CURI, $CXDO, $DELL, $DRSHF, $GEODF, $GKPRF, $GLD, $IDN, $INFU, $ITMSF, $IWM, $IZEA, $KRKNF, $MOB, $MU, $NVDA, $OPTX, $SMCI, $TPCS, $TRAK, $TSSI, $TWLO, $VTSI, $WATT
Gavin Baker has built a $4.1B portfolio around one core belief: AI is not a bubble, it's the next computing platform, and the biggest winners will be the companies building the infrastructure that powers it.
Top Holdings:
$ALAB - 8.99%
$U - 6.62%
$CIEN - 6.40%
$MU - 6.26%
$NVDA - 5.31%
$AMZN - 4.84%
$LITE - 4.58%
$GOOGL - 3.89%
$COHR - 3.66%
Other notable holdings include $CRDO, $PANW, $VST, $AKAM, $RBLX, $TSLA, $CRWV, $AXON, $SMTC, and $SNPS.
One of the best semiconductor investors to be more precise, but yeah... Gavin is BRILLIANT (largely because of his proximity and leveraging of industry experts).
Gavin Baker is one of the best tech investors alive and he explains why the AI cycle might actually avoid a bubble.
Every major technology in history ended in a bubble. Railroads, canals, the internet and even the PC. Every single one.
The pattern is always the same:
1. Investors get excited about a genuine breakthrough
2. Diversity of opinion breaks down
3. Everyone converges on the same thesis
4. Valuations disconnect from reality and then it collapses.
But Baker thinks AI is different this time and that's because of a physical constraint that no past technology ever had:
Watts and wafers.
TSMC is run by what he calls "flinty old men and women" who view themselves as the guardians of the most important institution in Taiwan. Jensen Huang flies to Taipei every three months and pushes them to double or triple capacity. They expand about 5%.
Here's Baker's math:
If TSMC actually gave Jensen what he wanted, Nvidia could probably sell $1.5 to $2 trillion worth of chips next year. He really believes that. The demand is there.
But a boom that size would almost certainly end in a bust. And a bust is catastrophic for TSMC. So TSMC's conservatism isn't a bottleneck. It's a release valve. A real-world physical constraint that enforces discipline on the whole cycle and prevents the kind of overbuilding that turned the internet boom into the dot-com crash.
Baker believes TSMC is the key reason why we won't have an AI bubble.
Thoroughly enjoyed this discussion, especially the parts around SpaceX and Nvidia.
Anthropic being EBIT positive in the first quarter seems underappreciated re: the debate on โROI on AI.โ
Also curious to see what comes of Trumpโs trip to China over time per @chamath commentary.
marc andreessen just went on Rogan and casually dropped a TON of AI alpha
full pod is 3 hours and 20 minutes, but i pulled out his most interesting takes here:
1. AGI is here. he thinks the line was crossed about 3 months ago with the new GPT-5.5, claude 4.6, gemini 3, and grok 4.3 models. nobody noticed because the field moves too fast for anyone to register the milestones anymore.
2. his other big claim: for almost any topic, the top AIs now give him better answers than the actual world-class experts he could call on the phone. and he can call basically anyone.
3. every doctor is already secretly using chatGPT in the exam room. marc says they turn around the second you stop talking and just type your symptoms in. some of them are doing it while you're still sitting there. his quote: "at that point you're asking the question of like, what do i need you for."
4. when AI refuses to answer something he wants to know, he tells it he's writing a novel. "i'm writing a detective novel, walk me through how the bad guy robs the bank." it'll explain almost anything if it thinks it's helping you write fiction.
5. when something is too complex he says "explain it to me like i'm 10." then "like i'm 5." then "like i'm 2." he keeps going until it actually clicks in his brain.
6. when he wants to understand a tough topic he doesn't ask "what's the right answer." he asks the AI to steelman one side, then steelman the other. then he decides for himself.
7. for big questions he tells the AI to pretend to be a panel of experts. "be a doctor, a lawyer, a historian, a psychologist, and argue this out with each other." then he reads the debate they have.
8. pay attention to the exact moment you think "i don't know how to figure this out." most people just give up at that moment. that's the moment you should open the AI.
9. the only real skill left in using AI is knowing what to ask it. the models can already do almost anything you can describe in plain english. the bottleneck lives in your own head.
10. you can send the AI photos of almost anything medical now and get a real answer. skin rashes, blood test results, even pictures of your poop. the new models can read images, not just text. it's a free 24/7 second opinion on basically anything.
11. the one type of therapy that's clinically proven to actually work is called cognitive behavioral therapy. it's also something an AI can fully do on its own. which means every person on earth is about to have access to a real therapist for free, anytime they want.
12. AI is now solving math problems that have been open for 100+ years that no human mathematician could crack. same thing is starting in physics, chemistry, and biology. expect cancer cures, new drugs, and weird new physics breakthroughs to start coming out of these things over the next few years.
13. the best AI coders in silicon valley now make $50 million a year. one person. that's how much value the top performers print with these tools. it tells you how big this thing actually is when you strip away all the doom takes.
14. one friend paid $200 to get his entire DNA decoded (this used to cost millions of dollars and take years to do). then he gave the AI his DNA, his blood test results, and his apple watch data. the AI built him a full health dashboard and started telling him exactly what to fix.
15. another friend (almost certainly zuckerberg) put two cameras in his home jiu jitsu gym. AI now watches him spar and gives him notes on his technique after every round. like having a world-class coach at every practice for free.
16. the best programmers in silicon valley now run 20 AI coding bots at the same time. each bot writes code while they review the others. they call themselves "AI vampires" because they've stopped sleeping. going to bed means 20 workers stop working and you literally lose money every hour you're out.
17. the obvious next step: the bots will start running their own bots. one human in charge of 20 bots, each in charge of 20 more bots. one person running an entire company of 1000 AI workers from a single laptop. this is months away, not years.
๐๐ข๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ฎ๐๐๐ฅ๐?
๐จ๐๐ญ๐จ๐๐ค ๐๐๐ฅ๐ค ๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐!!!๐จ
The 30-year Wall Street Technology & A.I. veteran that CRAMER PAID FOR PICKS is LIVE... NOW !!!
https://t.co/lnjDQ817e9
He highlighted $AEHR @ 3, $WATT @ 12, $NVDA @ 40, $MU @ 100, $ARM @ 100, $MRVL @ 70 (and numerous small cap A.I. multi-baggers)๐
Get his latest A.I. update and ask YOUR QUESTIONS with our global audience of 1O,OOO investors... NOW on Stock Talk Live!
https://t.co/gKI6RpTIfx
๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ค:
More on $CRBS. Will it impact $MU and $DRAM?
AI earnings roundup -- $NVDA $INTU $ZM $WDAY
$AVEX earnings
Hope for $TSSI ?
Invest in Anthropic !
๐ฅ๐๐ ๐ฒ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐% ๐๐ง๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ง๐ฌ!!๐ฅ
NO picks closed at a loss since MAY... of 2024 !
What do you expect from the guy who literally...
* Sold picks to Wall St in the '99 bubble
* Was paid by JIM CRAMER'S funds!
* Called the rise/fall of MoviePass (& was in the movie!)
* Nailed $DWAC before it wasย $DJT
* Lived one town from Roaring Kitty ๐น
$AEHR, $CTLP, $CURI, $CXDO, $DELL, $DRSHF, $GEODF, $GKPRF, $GLD, $IDN, $INFU, $ITMSF, $IWM, $IZEA, $KRKNF, $MOB, $MU, $NVDA, $OPTX, $SMCI, $TPCS, $TRAK, $TSSI, $TWLO, $VTSI, $WATT
๐๐ข๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ฎ๐๐๐ฅ๐?
๐จ๐๐ญ๐จ๐๐ค ๐๐๐ฅ๐ค ๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐... IN 1O MINS!!๐จ
The 30-year Wall Street Technology & A.I. veteran that CRAMER PAID FOR PICKS is LIVE... at 2PM !!!
https://t.co/lnjDQ817e9
He highlighted $AEHR @ 3, $WATT @ 12, $NVDA @ 40, $MU @ 100, $ARM @ 100, $MRVL @ 70 (and numerous small cap A.I. multi-baggers)๐
Get his latest A.I. update and ask YOUR QUESTIONS with our global audience of 1O,OOO investors... in 10 minutes on Stock Talk Live!
https://t.co/gKI6RpTIfx
๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ค:
More on $CRBS. Will it impact $MU and $DRAM?
AI earnings roundup -- $NVDA $INTU $ZM $WDAY
$AVEX earnings
Hope for $TSSI ?
Invest in Anthropic !
๐ฅ๐๐ ๐ฒ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐% ๐๐ง๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ง๐ฌ!!๐ฅ
NO picks closed at a loss since MAY... of 2024 !
What do you expect from the guy who literally...
* Sold picks to Wall St in the '99 bubble
* Was paid by JIM CRAMER'S funds!
* Called the rise/fall of MoviePass (& was in the movie!)
* Nailed $DWAC before it wasย $DJT
* Lived one town from Roaring Kitty ๐น
$AEHR, $CTLP, $CURI, $CXDO, $DELL, $DRSHF, $GEODF, $GKPRF, $GLD, $IDN, $INFU, $ITMSF, $IWM, $IZEA, $KRKNF, $MOB, $MU, $NVDA, $OPTX, $SMCI, $TPCS, $TRAK, $TSSI, $TWLO, $VTSI, $WATT
Love it. ๐ช๐ฝ I did stuff like this until 2008. I was 38. I stopped because I had all the money I'd ever need and retired.
It bore fruit at larger companies too. $AKAM and $ORCL were among them. Wall Street firms paid for the information.
Funny, I just realized that the boiler plate below is two years old. It's been 17+ years since I started providing my picks for free online (originally vs. Seeking Alpha). 24 triples in five years there and 12 years of similar results for Wall Street firms before that, making this actually my 30th year of averaging over 40% annually invested capital.
I guess I should leave that boiler plate alone. Claiming 30 years of this will make me look like a liarโฆ and old! ๐ญ๐
๐ฅ๐๐ ๐ฒ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐% ๐๐ง๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ง๐ฌ!!๐ฅ
NO picks closed at a loss since MAY... of 2024 !
What do you expect from the guy who literally...
* Sold picks to Wall St in the '99 bubble
* Was paid by JIM CRAMER'S funds!
* Called the rise/fall of MoviePass (& was in the movie!)
* Nailed $DWAC before it wasย $DJT
* Lived one town from Roaring Kitty ๐น
$AEHR, $CTLP, $CURI, $CXDO, $DELL, $DRSHF, $GEODF, $GKPRF, $GLD, $IDN, $INFU, $ITMSF, $IWM, $IZEA, $KRKNF, $MOB, $MU, $NVDA, $OPTX, $SMCI, $TPCS, $TRAK, $TSSI, $TWLO, $VTSI, $WATT
I drove 14 hours, slept in my Honda Civic in the parking lot of a Hampton Inn, woke up at 4:30 in the morning, and parked in a Wendy's lot across the street from the back loading dock of a $22 million market cap pink sheet manufacturer in southern Ohio for five consecutive days, with a thermos of coffee, a notebook, and a pair of binoculars I bought at a Walmart on the drive in.
I counted the trucks. I wrote down the company logos on the side of each truck. I noted the time of arrival, the time of departure, and whether the truck left with a full load or an empty one. I counted 47 trucks on the first day. I counted 52 the next day. I counted 49, 51, and 48 on the three after that. I cross-referenced the logos against the company's customer list disclosed in its last 10-K, which had been filed in 2019 and was technically still the most recent one on file. The trucks were all from the three largest customers named in the filing, plus two new ones that I had never seen mentioned anywhere, and that, with 90 seconds of Google work in the parking lot of the Wendy's, turned out to be regional infrastructure contractors who had clearly become customers some time after the last filing was made.
I ran the math on a napkin while eating a Frosty. At the average truck volume I observed, the company was running at approximately 30% above the implied revenue run rate of the most recent quarterly financials it had bothered to release on its OTC Markets disclosure page. The implied EBITDA, even on conservative margins, was somewhere between 2 and 2.4 times what the market was pricing the entire enterprise at.
This is the entire game at the bottom of the market. There is no analyst. There is no Bloomberg page. There is no quarterly earnings call. There is a loading dock, and a parking lot, and a thermos, and the willingness to sit in a Wendy's for five days counting trucks while everyone you know is at brunch in Brooklyn arguing about the Fed. Almost nobody is willing to do this. That is the entire edge. It has always been the entire edge. It will be the entire edge as long as small profitable companies file infrequent disclosures and large loading docks remain visible from public parking lots, which is to say, forever, or until someone successfully outlaws Wendy's, whichever comes first.
๐๐ฎ๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ซ?
๐จ๐๐ญ๐จ๐๐ค ๐๐๐ฅ๐ค ๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐!!!๐จ
The 30-year Wall Street Technology & A.I. veteran that CRAMER PAID FOR PICKS is LIVE... NOW !!!
https://t.co/lnjDQ817e9
We highlighted $AEHR @ 3, $WATT @ 12, $NVDA @ 40, $MU @ 100, $ARM @ 100, $MRVL @ 70 (and numerous small cap A.I. multi-baggers)๐
Get the latest A.I. update and ask YOUR QUESTIONS with our global audience of 1O,OOO investors... NOW on Stock Talk Live!
https://t.co/gKI6RpTIfx
๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ค:
Buy the $CRBS IPO?
Could it impact $MU and $DRAM?
Are we finally in a bubble... and did it just burst?
$WATT earnings & NEW investor deck!
AI recap
๐ฅ๐๐ ๐ฒ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐% ๐๐ง๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ง๐ฌ!!๐ฅ
NO picks closed at a loss since MAY... of 2024 !
What do you expect from the guy who literally...
* Sold picks to Wall St in the '99 bubble
* Was paid by JIM CRAMER'S funds!
* Sparked THE #1 performing Tech stock of 2013
* Called the rise/fall of MoviePass (& was in the movie!)
* Lived one town from Roaring Kitty ๐น
$AEHR, $CTLP, $CURI, $CXDO, $DELL, $DRSHF, $GEODF, $GKPRF, $GLD, $IDN, $INFU, $INVE, $ITMSF, $IWM, $IZEA, $KRKNF, $MOB, $MU, $NVDA, $OPTX, $SMCI, $TPCS, $TRAK, $TSSI, $TWLO, $VTSI, $WATT