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Neil Sethi NEW account, so please refollow
@neilsethinew
Formerly @neilksethi. MP at Sethi Associates. Jujitsu Enthusiast. Hopeless Optimist.
Joined June 2026
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The @neilksethi account was suspended by X for posting some BoA charts.
I'm trying to sort that out but don't have high hopes. So, I am restarting with this account.
If you could follow and repost, I would appreciate it, so people know where to find me now.
cc:
@C_Barraud
@Chartfest1
@dailychartbook
@lisaabramowicz1
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Goldman notes Mexico's win over South Africa featured three red cards. "The whole 2022 World Cup featured four across all games."
They predict both the US and Canada will struggle in today's games despite home field advantage:
Canada v. Bosnia and Herzegovina: 2 - 1
USA v. Paraguay: 1 -1 (the unrounded prediction is 1.25 - 1.20)
With the World Cup starting today, thought I'd intersperse some World Cup notes into today's offerings.
Goldman uses a regression model to predict goals scored, scoring talent, momentum, mentality (reigning champions generally underperform while first timers and "major footballing nations" generally outperform), and "home effect"(which includes reduced goals the further from home or when playing at a different altitude or temperature from home).
It then mixes all of that into a blender and predicts Spain winning its second World Cup over Argentina with France and Brazil also in the final four.
BBG: SpaceX’s IPO will be released for quotation at 9:50 a.m., and eligible for trading at 10 a.m.
Space-linked equities have trounced the Mag-7 YTD which is roughly flat for the year.
In contrast the MS Space Levered Economy Index is up 57%, the UBS Space Exploration Index 68%, and Goldman's Space Hedge Index 46%.
"Derivatives offered by online brokerage IG International pointed to a market value of $2.4 trillion Friday morning in Singapore, implying a gain of more than 35% from a price of $135 a share and valuation of $1.77 trillion in the initial public offering.
"SpaceX-tied perpetual futures, contracts that don’t expire, on crypto venue Hyperliquid were trading around $180, implying a valuation of more than $2.3 trillion. Over $143 million of the instrument traded in the past 24 hours, and it currently has more than $208 million in open interest."
"Polymarket traders put 70% odds on SpaceX closing above $2 trillion of market value on its first day of trading."
"The median first day rise in shares for last 66 technology companies to list in the US, including Meta, Twitter, Zoom and Robinhood, was 35.6%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. One year after the listing that performance climbed to 43%. Year one, however, is rarely smooth: at its trough, the median name traded 20% below their IPO offer price, with four in 10 down 30% or more."
It was the most popular pre-IPO trade “we have had so far even with the valuation looking stretched. If the pre-IPO pricing momentum sustains, it will set a precedent for the next mega-IPOs,” said Fabien Yip, a market analyst at IG.
BoA's Hartnett: "booms & bubbles ended by bonds (punitive cost of capital), leaders (not a good look if “cheap” MAGS can’t hold $65), or elections (voters wanting more jobs or lower inflation);
we’re getting there...but for now asset allocation frozen bullish, positioned for late-cycle greed, not at all tempted by 5% yields at the long-end (BofA private client exposure to UST bonds >10-year duration tiny 4%)".
"Derivatives offered by online brokerage IG International pointed to a market value of $2.4 trillion Friday morning in Singapore, implying a gain of more than 35% from a price of $135 a share and valuation of $1.77 trillion in the initial public offering.
"SpaceX-tied perpetual futures, contracts that don’t expire, on crypto venue Hyperliquid were trading around $180, implying a valuation of more than $2.3 trillion. Over $143 million of the instrument traded in the past 24 hours, and it currently has more than $208 million in open interest."
"Polymarket traders put 70% odds on SpaceX closing above $2 trillion of market value on its first day of trading."
"The median first day rise in shares for last 66 technology companies to list in the US, including Meta, Twitter, Zoom and Robinhood, was 35.6%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. One year after the listing that performance climbed to 43%. Year one, however, is rarely smooth: at its trough, the median name traded 20% below their IPO offer price, with four in 10 down 30% or more."
It was the most popular pre-IPO trade “we have had so far even with the valuation looking stretched. If the pre-IPO pricing momentum sustains, it will set a precedent for the next mega-IPOs,” said Fabien Yip, a market analyst at IG.
🇺🇸 #SpaceX Shares Indicated More Than 35% Higher in Shadow Trading - Bloomberg
https://t.co/32YwiZ55LR
@C_Barraud Here's a chart to add to this. Currently, US SPR crude inventories are just 2.4 million barrels (0.7%) above the least since 1983.
Tier1Alpha notes that in addition to negative gamma juicing Thursday's gains, as Charlie McElligott had flagged earlier in the week, leveraged ETFs gave a big boost as well "totaling over $11.3B in net buying flows directly tied to SPX and NDX-linked funds," and $SOXL, the 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF adding another $12 billion in flows (so more than all SPX and NDX-linked funds):
"Let me say that again. SOXL alone generated roughly $12B in net rebalancing demand, equal to roughly 45% of its prior-day AUM. It's becoming increasingly clear that levered ETFs have become a dominant feature in the current market structure, and yesterday, combined with dealers covering their short gamma exposure, was a masterclass in mechanical flows."
Charlie McElligott echos Tier1Alpha's thoughts on negative gamma (via ZH):
Negative gamma remains uncomfortably large. Between options positioning (~$5 billion per 1% move) and leveraged ETF exposure (~$8 billion per 1% move), the market is sitting on a massive amount of convexity.
The result is a setup where relatively small moves can quickly snowball, amplifying whichever direction the market is already heading.
Yardeni: Today’s bull market in stocks has raised concerns that investors are flying too close to the sun and are in for a meltdown like Icarus’.
We try not to be bullheaded, but we think that the earnings-led bull market will continue at least through the end of the decade. We think that June’s Swoon so far is more likely to be a rotation than a correction (chart).
The S&P 500 bounced off its 50-day moving average today on news that President Donald Trump decided to postpone a planned attack on Iran. He subsequently said that a deal to end the war is imminent. Iran has yet to confirm this.
BoA FX and rates survey: Out of the Fed, ECB, BoJ, and BoE 42% say none will deliver more rate hikes than expected, but 23% say it would be the Fed.
0% say the ECB or BoE will deliver more than expected, and 12% say the BoJ.
As a reminder from @t1alpha:
"That said, we want to emphasize the phrase 'in both directions' because negative gamma regimes do not inherently mean markets have to move lower. Violent rips to the upside are just as likely as further declines, depending on the underlying momentum."
As noted yesterday, there was a sharp decline in gamma expected on any decline below SPX 7400, and with Wed's decline, @t1alpha confirms "SPX has slipped back into negative gamma, which means the conditions for higher volatility are now back in play... Note that our GVT index, which we use as our key gamma signal, has now fallen to -10.14, with a corresponding 10-day realized volatility of 17.2, right in line with the historical average."
"That said, we want to emphasize the phrase 'in both directions' because negative gamma regimes do not inherently mean markets have to move lower. Violent rips to the upside are just as likely as further declines, depending on the underlying momentum."
BMO raises its 2026 year-end target for the S&P 500 to 7,850. BMO chief investment strategist Francois Trahan believes that the strong earnings story is enough to lift markets from current levels.
“Surely, the U.S. consumer is feeling stress from the affordability crisis, a point that dampens the otherwise amazing U.S. growth story,” Trahan wrote. “Still, the robust earnings story is somewhat unprecedented and provides a phenomenal boost for stock prices,” he said. “The earnings story is the ‘tide that lifts all boats’ and after all the stimulus in the pipeline, it’s not that unusual. The scale is the rarity.”
“In the history of forward earnings (back to 1980), we have only seen larger numbers when we were coming out of the financial crisis and earnings had been depressed, and again in the wake of the pandemic. We did not have a recession last cycle setting us up for unprecedented momentum — and it’s broad-based,” the strategist said.
More worryingly, Trahan said that earnings growth this fast usually comes with inflation as a byproduct. On the plus side, he noted that it usually takes some time for inflationary pressures in the pipeline to affect the broader inflation indexes.
“It’s clear to us that inflation will end up being THE story of 2026. It might even overtake AI when all is said and done,” Trahan said. “That said, investors are much more likely to focus on the earnings backdrop in the near term.”
Trahan believes that the S&P 500 might surpass his 7,850 year-end target “in the coming months before giving back some of those returns when core inflation gains momentum, which is likely to happen this fall.”
BMO raises S&P 500 year-end target citing ‘unprecedented’ earnings growth https://t.co/zEJZ89TFs3
From the Markets Update (https://t.co/8dbAhCqIas):
In US economic data, Friday is light with just the preliminary June UMich consumer sentiment survey.
No Fed speakers or Treasury auctions.
Also no SPX reports (and very few non-SPX reports).
Which leaves the highlight for US markets, the IPO of SpaceX, which is set to raise about $75 billion in what would become the largest initial public offering in history.
Ex-US highlights include UK GDP, Japan industrial production.
Markets Update - 6/11/26
A detailed look at what happened today impacting US equity, Treasury, and selected commodity markets, and what to watch for tomorrow.
https://t.co/1vTpLHzAw6
Charlie McElligott echos Tier1Alpha's thoughts on negative gamma (via ZH):
Negative gamma remains uncomfortably large. Between options positioning (~$5 billion per 1% move) and leveraged ETF exposure (~$8 billion per 1% move), the market is sitting on a massive amount of convexity.
The result is a setup where relatively small moves can quickly snowball, amplifying whichever direction the market is already heading.
As a reminder from @t1alpha:
"That said, we want to emphasize the phrase 'in both directions' because negative gamma regimes do not inherently mean markets have to move lower. Violent rips to the upside are just as likely as further declines, depending on the underlying momentum."
Nightly email from @dailychartbook had an interesting chart from @Adamslarry97 that the RUT is outpacing the SPX by the most since 2001 (first chart).
It widened that lead by a percent Thursday, now 9% ahead (second chart).
I look at hundreds of charts a day.
📈📊📉
After the bell, I curate the best ones and send them to investors.
Subscribe to be one of them 👇
https://t.co/n7eCrpXfel
John Authers: With more than 70% of small-business owners reporting that supply-chain disruptions are weighing on their operations, geopolitical uncertainty is having an effect.
It’s most evident in hiring plans, which unsurprisingly took a hit [falling to the least since August 2016 outside of the initial months of the pandemic], while capex is at its lowest since 2009.
![neilsethinew's tweet photo. John Authers: With more than 70% of small-business owners reporting that supply-chain disruptions are weighing on their operations, geopolitical uncertainty is having an effect.
It’s most evident in hiring plans, which unsurprisingly took a hit [falling to the least since August 2016 outside of the initial months of the pandemic], while capex is at its lowest since 2009.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HKlASAQWsAAJucc.png)
Goldman maintains their 2026Q4 $90 forecast for Brent crude "as the easing effect from a smaller-than-expected deficit during the Hormuz disruption so far offsets the tightening effect from a longer disruption.
"We estimate a 5-6mb/d Q2 deficit, which is smaller than the 14-15mb/d hit to Mideast liquids production because of nearly 5mb/d of estimated demand losses and over 4mb/d of oversupply in the absence of the war.
"We now assume that oil exports from Gulf producers normalize by late August (vs. by late June prior), which may be achieved with a rise in Hormuz flows to 70% of pre-war levels given current redirections.... We lower our 2027 average Brent forecast by $5 to $80 on higher supply and lower demand."
Adverse scenario: Brent 2026Q4 would average just over $110 assuming Gulf exports only normalize by end-October.
Severely adverse scenario: Brent would average $140 in 2027 assuming Hormuz remains disrupted through 2027....
Benign scenario: Brent would average around $70 in 2026Q4 and $60 in 2027 assuming exports normalize by end-July, stickier demand losses, and stronger supply.
#oott
From the Thursday morning update, sub here to get it in your inbox each morning (free subscribers get the whole note) https://t.co/D6QAU1VYka:
Shares of $BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and $JD https://t.co/pbxL6tGOH8 Inc. slid after Chinese regulators scolded leading e-commerce players for what it called misleading promotions, Beijing’s latest warning against unchecked competition in the vast online arena.
Alibaba shares fell as much as 6.5% Thursday in Hong Kong, the biggest intraday decline in nearly three months. https://t.co/pbxL6tGOH8 also dropped almost 6%, the most since November.
The declines came after the Beijing branch of State Administration for Market Regulation summoned the two, along with PDD Holdings Inc., ByteDance Ltd. and Xiaohongshu Technology Co., over what officials said was false advertising during the annual “618” midyear online shopping festival, according to a report by CCTV.
The powerful market watchdog blasted some of the companies for promising tens of billions of yuan in subsidies, according to the CCTV report. Alibaba’s two main marketplaces, Tmall and Taobao, and https://t.co/pbxL6tGOH8 failed to provide details of the actual subsidies granted by the company and participating brands, the state media outlet reported.
“What has changed is regulators’ willingness to publicize their enforcement activities,” said Jasmine Duan, investment strategist at RBC Wealth Management. “Consequently, China’s existing regulatory constraints are now more visible to markets, but not fundamentally more restrictive.”
As We Approach The Open... 6/11/26
Roundup of global markets ahead of the cash opening of US equities including corporate and international updates
https://t.co/DQJf4lrX7V
From the Markets Update (https://t.co/8dbAhCqakU):
While the 1-day VIX edged back from the second highest reading since April on Wednesday, it remained quite elevated for a non-Friday at 21.1.
That’s consistent with a move of 1.32% in the SPX next session.
Markets Update - 6/11/26
A detailed look at what happened today impacting US equity, Treasury, and selected commodity markets, and what to watch for tomorrow.
https://t.co/1vTpLHzAw6
But over on the Nasdaq, the intensity of buying winners (positive volume) was disappointing.
Despite the best index gain since April 8th (circle) it was only the 6th best positive volume since then.
From the Markets Update (https://t.co/1vTpLHzAw6):
After just 13 SPX components were up over 3% on Wednesday, ~135 were on Thursday, while just 14 were down -3% or more after ~120 Wednesday.
From the Markets Update (https://t.co/1vTpLHzAw6):
After just 13 SPX components were up over 3% on Wednesday, ~135 were on Thursday, while just 14 were down -3% or more after ~120 Wednesday.
Markets Update - 6/11/26
A detailed look at what happened today impacting US equity, Treasury, and selected commodity markets, and what to watch for tomorrow.
https://t.co/1vTpLHzAw6
South Korea's Kospi is surging 7% on hopes that a US-Iran deal is this time actually in the offing.
That would be the biggest one-day gain since... Tuesday.
If you think things are volatile here, South Korea's Kospi has moved at least 4.5% the past four sessions.
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