Hawkish cut? Dovish cut?
Does it matter? I don't think so, as history says cuts near ATHs aren't bearish and that is what really matters.
The past 22 times the Fed cut near ATHs saw the S&P 500 higher a year later 22 times. Don't fight the Fed and more cuts are coming.
Mr ViX is up nearly 20%. If this holds to the 4pm close, based on 25 years of back-tested data, there’s a 90% chance a rally will occur on the S&P 500 in 2 trading days (Friday or Monday). 🎯
For the bullish 🐂 view. Back tested over 25 years. A move of 30%+ in the VIX results in a rally in the S&P 500 within 2 trading days of the event (Monday or Tuesday) 98% OF THE TIME. I like those odds.
Lot of talk how valuations are 'high'.
Here's another reminder there is virtually no correlation between P/E multiples and what the S&P 500 does the next year (R-squared of -0.01).