GeoInsider

Independent geopolitical & military analysis. Conflicts, strategy, and the forces shaping them.

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

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[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

🌐 MORNING WATCH | NOV. 11

🇷🇺 RUSSIA–NATO — Russian diplomat Alexey Drobinin has proposed bilateral non-aggression pacts with individual NATO members as one option for Europe's future security architecture. Russia's chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, says broader European security was central to the Abu Dhabi talks.

🌊 HORMUZ — Reuters has verified footage showing a Navig8-managed tanker burning off Oman on November 8. Sentinel-2 imagery captured smoke at the same location. It's the clearest evidence yet for one of the incidents claimed by Iran. The investigation was published yesterday evening.

🇮🇷 IRAN — Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei says Tehran will not allow any enriched nuclear material to leave the country. He also insists there are currently no negotiations with Washington. The uranium stockpile remains a major obstacle to a possible deal, with no clear compromise in sight.

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

These emails are disposable and cannot be traced back to the sender. If someone gets caught, it's usually because they made a mistake in how they carried out the operation. The email domain and all the other technical details are irrelevant here. These are throwaway email addresses, used once and discarded.

[Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham]

Sickening emails sent to primary schools in my hometown Enniskillen today, second time in a month

"This is Mikhail Andropov, leader of the "Red Owl" project. We've come to destroy you. We're going to carry out genocide against your people."

https://t.co/Zz6dMO1AwJ

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

Sadly, the wave of bomb hoaxes we have been seeing over the past hours highlights how easily this tactic can be used by almost anyone to cause disruption.

Every threat, even when ultimately proven false, forces authorities to take it seriously, evacuate buildings and so on.

These incidents, which have traditionally tended to be more localised, appear to be spreading across multiple countries.

It is an extremely cheap and relatively simple way to create chaos, keep authorities constantly occupied, disrupt public life and generate a sense of insecurity. 👍

[Financial Times @FT]

Hundreds of schools across Italy, Scotland and Ireland receive bomb threats https://t.co/f2dDtHbWIx

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

NEW: The Republic of Moldova says two Russian Banderol (S8000) cruise missiles violated its national airspace early this morning amid massive Russian attacks against Ukraine.

According to Moldova’s Air Operations Centre, the first missile entered from Ukraine’s Odesa region at 06:04 local time, crossing near Tudora in Ștefan Vodă District, before leaving Moldovan airspace at 06:09 and heading back towards Odesa.

The second missile entered at 06:06 near Pervomaisc, in the Transnistrian region, and exited Moldovan airspace at 06:10, also heading towards Ukraine’s Odesa region.

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

The drone itself has not been recovered, so its origin and type remain unconfirmed. Military officials said it could have been one of the Ukrainian drones involved in the large-scale attack on Russia, potentially diverted by electronic warfare.

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

UPDATE: Lithuania’s military is now providing further details about the drone incidents that unfolded overnight:

According to Rear Admiral Giedrius Premeneckas, NATO Baltic Air Policing fighter jets made two attempts to shoot down one of the drones that entered Lithuanian airspace, but both attempts were unsuccessful.

The drone was tracked over Lithuania, briefly entered Polish airspace before returning, and continued north towards Latvia. It was visually identified near Kaunas, but engaging it over the city was considered too dangerous because of the risk of damage from falling debris.

One of the missiles missed the target and later self-destructed. Its remains were subsequently found in the Biržai District. Military officials say they pose no danger.

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

More air-threat alerts have been issued across Latvia, although several of the areas warned earlier have since had their alerts lifted. The remaining active warnings cover Cēsis, Smiltene and Gulbene.

[NBS @Latvijas_armija]

#dzeltenaisbrīdinājums

❗️IESPĒJAMS APDRAUDĒJUMS GAISA TELPĀ SMILTENES UN GULBENES NOVADOS

ESI GATAVS! Informējam, ka ir iespējams apdraudējums Latvijas gaisa telpā.
Papildu rīcība šobrīd nav nepieciešama. Ja situācija mainīsies, saņemsi šūnu apraides paziņojumu par nepieciešamo rīcību.

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

ORANGE. https://t.co/zrna7SUCqT

[NBS @Latvijas_armija]

#oranžaisbrīdinājums

❗️MADONAS NOVADĀ APDRAUDĒJUMA LĪMENIS PAAUGSTINĀTS NO DZELTENĀ UZ ORANŽO.

RĪKOJIES! Informējam, ka Latvijas gaisa telpā ir apdraudējums.
Dodies telpās, ievēro divu sienu principu! Seko oficiālajiem paziņojumiem. Ja pamani zemu lidojošu vai aizdomīgu objektu, netuvojies tam un zvani 112!

Par apdraudējuma beigām informēsim.

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

UPDATE: More air-threat alerts are now being issued across Latvia, with the latest warnings covering the Jēkabpils and Madona districts.

This comes after the unidentified aerial target tracked by Lithuanian authorities left Lithuanian airspace and continued into Latvia.

As previously mentioned, Latvia has a two-level air-threat alert system: yellow, indicating a possible threat with no immediate action required, and orange, signalling a detected threat and requiring residents to take shelter.

More districts could receive alerts as the target continues to be tracked across Latvian airspace.

[NBS @Latvijas_armija]

#dzeltenaisbrīdinājums

❗️IESPĒJAMS APDRAUDĒJUMS GAISA TELPĀ JĒKABPILS UN MADONAS NOVADOS

ESI GATAVS! Informējam, ka ir iespējams apdraudējums Latvijas gaisa telpā.
Papildu rīcība šobrīd nav nepieciešama. Ja situācija mainīsies, saņemsi šūnu apraides paziņojumu par nepieciešamo rīcību.

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

🇫🇮 Finland has once again imposed temporary aviation and maritime restrictions in the eastern Gulf of Finland as a precautionary measure amid concerns over possible drone activity.

This is not the first time Finland has taken such measures. Similar restrictions have been introduced during Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russia’s Leningrad Region.

[Puolustusvoimat @Puolustusvoimat]

Puolustusvoimat on ottanut käyttöön itäisellä Suomenlahdella tilapäisen ilmailun rajoitusalueen klo. 02:09 ja merialueen osalta klo. 02:15. Tarkista voimassa olevat ilmailun rajoitukset: https://t.co/uMZ6Aq7gYc ja merivaroitukset: https://t.co/VuDUHk3o00

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

To clarify, there were not four drones over Lithuania, as previously reported. This may have been a mistranslation on my part.

According to Lithuania’s NKVC chief Vilmantas Vitkauskas, a total of five aerial objects were mentioned:

One suspected drone was tracked over southern Lithuania for an extended period. It briefly entered Polish airspace, returned to Lithuania, travelled north and eventually crossed into Latvia near Pasvalys.

A second object was reported heading towards Ignalina but never crossed into Lithuanian airspace.

Three additional drones were reportedly detected near Latvia, although their exact locations and connection to the other incident remain unclear.

Latvia was not issuing further air-threat alerts at the time. The only possible connection may be an earlier alert issued in an area close to the Russian border, but it remains unclear whether that warning was related to these objects.

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

UPDATE: Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Centre (NKVC) chief Vilmantas Vitkauskas has clarified that there were two separate incidents involving unidentified aerial objects.

One object reported heading towards Ignalina never crossed into Lithuanian airspace. Three drones were detected near Latvia.

A separate drone approached southern Lithuania from the direction of Grodno, Belarus, briefly entered Polish airspace before returning to Lithuania, and then travelled north from the Marijampolė area. It eventually crossed into Latvia near Pasvalys.

The drone has now left Lithuanian airspace and is being tracked by Latvian authorities, who may have an opportunity to shoot it down. Lithuania was unable to neutralise the target because it could not be engaged without a clear visual on it.

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

UPDATE: Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Centre (NKVC) confirms that the unidentified aerial target has left Lithuanian airspace and is now being tracked over Latvian territory.

All air-threat warnings across Lithuania have been lifted.

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

UPDATE: Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Centre (NKVC) confirms that the unidentified aerial target has left Lithuanian airspace and is now being tracked over Latvian territory.

All air-threat warnings across Lithuania have been lifted.

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

UPDATE: Lithuania continues to expand air-threat warnings as reports of unidentified aerial objects emerge across the country.

🇱🇹 RED ALERT

- Panevėžys District – upgraded from yellow to red.

🟡 YELLOW ALERT

- Radviliškis District
- Ukmergė District
- Anykščiai District
- Kupiškis District
- Pasvalys District
- Biržai District
- Pakruojis District

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

A new warning has been issued over the Aizkraukle area, located in south-central Latvia, southeast of Riga.

The previous air-threat alert issued for another area of Latvia has now been lifted.

[NBS @Latvijas_armija]

#dzeltenaisbrīdinājums

❗️IESPĒJAMS APDRAUDĒJUMS GAISA TELPĀ AIZKRAUKLES NOVADĀ

ESI GATAVS! Informējam, ka ir iespējams apdraudējums Latvijas gaisa telpā.
Papildu rīcība šobrīd nav nepieciešama. Ja situācija mainīsies, saņemsi šūnu apraides paziņojumu par nepieciešamo rīcību.

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

@kuraisalive 👍

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

Realistically, some of these drones may continue flying until they run out of fuel, change course or leave Lithuanian airspace. And there is another problem: radar systems do not always provide an accurate position, while fighter pilots may struggle to visually locate and identify small, low-flying drones. 🤷‍♂️

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

https://t.co/GiVTzI5uWz

[MAKS 26 🇺🇦👀 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA]

Fire in the port of Ust-Luga 🔥🔥🔥

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

For everyone asking: no, since 2022, we have not seen this number of drones reported in Lithuanian airspace at once. At least four objects have been reported in connection with the current incident.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is attacking Russia's Ust-Luga port infrastructure, where multiple fires have been reported.

Could the drones over the Baltic region be Ukrainian? It is certainly possible. However, Lithuania is not one of the areas where Ukrainian drones have most commonly been spotted in previous incidents. We have seen more frequent reports of Ukrainian drones operating over other parts.

At this stage, their origin remains unconfirmed. We will find out more as the situation develops.

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

Based on the latest updates, approximately 800,000 people may now be under some level of air-threat warning in Lithuania roughly 30% of the country's population.

This estimate includes:
Red-alert areas: Kaunas City and District, Panevėžys City and District, Pasvalys, Prienai, Kėdainiai, Druskininkai and Lazdijai.

Yellow-alert areas: Radviliškis, Ukmergė, Anykščiai, Kupiškis, Biržai and Pakruojis.

The warnings in Alytus and Marijampolė counties have been lifted.

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

UPDATE: Lithuania continues to expand air-threat warnings as reports of unidentified aerial objects emerge across the country.

🇱🇹 RED ALERT

- Panevėžys District – upgraded from yellow to red.

🟡 YELLOW ALERT

- Radviliškis District
- Ukmergė District
- Anykščiai District
- Kupiškis District
- Pasvalys District
- Biržai District
- Pakruojis District

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

UPDATE: A drone is approaching Kaunas, Lithuania's second-largest city, from the direction of Marijampolė. Lithuanian fighter jets are attempting to identify the object.

Three other objects have been reported in the northern area, towards Latvia, Kaunas Airport has also temporarily suspended operations amid the drone threat.