Voter pushback on data centers has introduced a new challenge for the AI infrastructure story. But Brian Levitt, our Chief Global Market Strategist, doesn’t think slower necessarily means over.
In his view, a more measured buildout could bring greater discipline to spending, take some pressure off interest rates and valuations, and ultimately elongate the AI investment cycle. The timeline may be changing, but he doesn’t believe the fundamental case for AI has.
Read his latest weekly market commentary. https://t.co/0NFhQTqIR9
Markets have been facing some headwinds. But when Brian Levitt, our Chief Global Market Strategist, stepped back from the bearish headlines, to him the bull market appears to have remained intact:
▪️ Treasuries haven’t appeared to have lost their safe-haven status.
▪️ Credit markets have been doing the healthy work of separating stronger borrowers from weaker ones.
▪️ Brian's view of the fundamental AI story hasn’t changed.
Yes, risks remain, but his belief is that markets have a long history of climbing walls of worry.
Read his latest weekly market commentary. https://t.co/4bEIMDjW7g
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Ten hours in the car driving his daughter to college brought back a familiar question for our Chief Global Market Strategist, Brian Levitt: Are we there yet? It's one investors may be asking about the bull market ending, as credit became more selective, inflation remained elevated, and markets adjusted to higher rates.
His view: We’re always getting closer to the end of the bull market, but we're not there yet. The indicators he watches suggest the ride may have slowed, but he doesn’t believe it is over yet, and may not be for a while.
Read his latest weekly market commentary. https://t.co/65yK4e9tFi
A chart of the 10-year Treasury yield can look a lot like a Rorschach test. When looking at the same chart, some investors may see a looming debt crisis. Others may see an economy that remains stronger than expected. In examining the evidence behind both views, Brian Levitt, our Global Market Strategist, thinks markets may have adjusted to higher rates rather than signaling a crisis. His view:
▪️ Key market indicators haven’t pointed to a debt crisis. The dollar has been firm, inflation expectations contained, and credit spreads have been relatively tight.
▪️ The more important debate may be strong growth versus slowing growth. Either could be constructive for stocks, but they may favor different market leaders.
Read his latest weekly market commentary. https://t.co/0Z7Rmz6DKP
Treasury yields approached 5% in September, yet the stock market remained resilient. Our Chief Global Market Strategist Brian Levitt explains why strong economic growth may support higher yields — and where higher borrowing costs may be creating risks. His takeaways:
▪️ Resilient economic growth, more than inflation or fiscal concerns, appeared to be supporting higher Treasury yields.
▪️ Higher borrowing costs, in my view, have been pressuring lower-quality credit and narrowing stock market leadership.
▪️ Near-5% Treasury yields may be able to coexist with a healthy stock market if earnings and nominal growth remain strong.
Read his latest weekly market commentary. https://t.co/PQ3VrWIt8B
Oil prices matter. Interest rates matter. But neither may be the most important market story right now, according to Brian Levitt, our Chief Global Market Strategist.
He believes Meta’s Muse, which quickly became the top free app in the US, offered tangible evidence that consumer AI adoption has accelerated. That matters because, in his view, the bull market’s structural AI story ultimately depends on extraordinary investment translating into growth and earnings.
The broadening trade may have stalled, but the AI growth story appears intact, to Brian.
Read his latest weekly market commentary. https://t.co/LkYWH098jB
The bears must be frustrated. That’s what our Chief Global Market Strategist says in his latest market commentary. He notes that last week oil surged, Treasury yields climbed, the Fed raised rates, the Bank of Japan tightened policy, and energy infrastructure was damaged. And through all of that, the S&P 500 Index remained just below its record high.
He thinks that the market bears may be focusing too much on the long list of worries and not on the backdrop against which they’re unfolding. He cites that fundamentals have continued to look considerably better than many expected and that strong nominal growth and strong corporate earnings have helped offset a growing wall of worry. To him, it feels less like a fragile market and more like one that has continued to climb a wall of worry.
Read his latest weekly market commentary. https://t.co/icPgZlPFVU
When will the next market drawdown occur? Our Chief Global Market Strategist Brian Levitt is often asked this. An easy answer to him is: Soon enough, because they often happen in most years. But he reminds investors that a drawdown isn’t the same as the end of a market cycle.
Despite shifting interest rate expectations, credit spreads have remained tight, and market breadth has remained resilient. The warning signs he’d watch — earnings disappointments, weaker policy guidance, and a slowdown in artificial intelligence (AI) — haven’t materialized.
For now, to him, this looks more like uncertainty about the monetary policy path than a meaningful deterioration in fundamentals.
Read our latest weekly market commentary. https://t.co/c5rIizxyh4
Market headlines are probably giving many investors something to worry about: higher oil prices, rising interest rates, US debt, and the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike.
But are those the risks that matter most?
Our Chief Global Market Strategist, Brian Levitt's take:
▪️ Oil prices remained below their April high.
▪️ Treasury yields looked less alarming alongside solid nominal economic growth.
▪️ Contained inflation expectations and modest job gains may limit the case for an extended rate-hiking cycle.
He’s more focused on the fundamentals supporting the market — resilient corporate earnings and continued AI investment. Until those begin to crack, he suspects many investors may be worrying about the wrong things.
Read our latest weekly market commentary. https://t.co/Bd32UM2SYK
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech reinforced our Global Head of Research, Strategy & Insights Ben Jones’ view that rates are likely to stay on hold for the rest of the year. His other takeaways in our weekly market commentary:
▪️ Less forward guidance from the Fed may widen the range of possible outcomes, and has the potential to increase the term premium and push longer-term bond yields higher.
▪️Earnings season ended with positive surprises in many markets, one of the better beat-to-miss ratios the S&P 500 has produced in decades, and double-digit growth in both Europe and Japan.
Read our latest weekly market commentary. https://t.co/96X9X9tluP
$40 trillion sounds scary. But context matters. Yes, US debt has doubled from about $20 trillion to $40 trillion. But over roughly the same period, US household net worth rose by nearly $95 trillion — more than twice the increase in federal debt.
That doesn’t make the debt issue disappear. But Brian Levitt, our chief global market strategist, suggests that investors be careful not to confuse alarming headlines with the full picture.
For now, his position is that earnings generally continued to surprise to the upside, credit spreads seemed calm, and markets have absorbed higher rates reasonably well. He’ll get more concerned if earnings meaningfully disappoint and credit spreads widen.
Until then, earnings matter more to him.
Read our latest weekly market commentary. https://t.co/uL4NHgPUHj
Brian Levitt, our chief global market strategist, feels bad for the bears. Not the Chicago Bears — the market bears. One by one, he believes the market has knocked down their arguments around AI demand, valuations, earnings, market breadth, and inflation.
The next concern of some market bears may be an earnings bubble driven by AI infrastructure spending. But in Brian’s view, if demand for AI agents keeps expanding, today’s investment boom may look less excessive in hindsight — and more like the early stages of a much larger compute cycle.
At some point, to him, fighting every advance can look less like discipline and more like stubbornness.
Read our latest weekly market commentary. https://t.co/gj0Qf7CK38
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Pending governance input, this would establish the treasury’s RWA sleeve.
@SuperstateInc tokenizes both funds.
Shadowing an Associated Press photographer once during a college football game helped Brian Levitt, our Chief Global Market Strategist, learn something about perspective. It stayed with him on the job watching stock markets. Rather than running towards an injured player, the photographer chose to remain in position for the next play. To Brian, that feels relevant for today’s markets. There are plenty of “injuries” making headlines — oil price hikes, inflation concerns, Fed uncertainty, tech consolidation, and the Japanese yen. But the bigger story may still be intact:
▪️ Economic growth has continued.
▪️ Earnings have held up.
▪️ Markets have largely absorbed policy shifts without obvious stress.
Brian’s view: Don’t lose sight of the field.
Read his latest weekly market commentary. https://t.co/72mc9FSPjb
Many investors are concerned that artificial intelligence spending is too high and that the Federal Reserve is behind the curve in fighting inflation. Chief Global Market Strategist Brian Levitt explains why he takes a different view of both questions.
https://t.co/T6QUVTaFJ1
Bull markets don’t end simply because someone observes that they will. They’ve typically ended when the conditions that supported them began to deteriorate. That doesn’t seem to be happening today, according to our Chief Global Market Strategist Brian Levitt:
▪️ Inflation appeared to be cooling.
▪️ The Federal Reserve sounded less inclined to tighten.
▪️ Earnings growth has remained healthy.
▪️ Market leadership has broadened.
No bull market lasts forever. But the ingredients that typically ended bull markets — significant earnings misses, falling earnings revisions, tightening liquidity, and restrictive monetary policy — don’t appear to be in place today.
Read his latest weekly market commentary. https://t.co/MQ3SabPcLz
Investing can feel much the same as the Siren’s songs in the Odyssey to our Global Head of Research, Ben Jones. Odysseus survived the songs because he understood the danger of distraction. Knowing which “Siren song” — like a central bank statement, an oil price move, a geopolitical escalation, an AI headline, or a tariff story — to listen to and which to ignore can help keep investors from the rocks. His key takeaways in this week’s market commentary:
▪️ US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes offered the first fuller glimpse of the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy debate under Chair Kevin Warsh.
▪️ AI isn’t just a technology theme. It’s an infrastructure cycle that can be inflationary before becoming productivity-enhancing.
▪️ Issues in the Strait of Hormuz may still impact energy prices, trade, inflation expectations, and risk appetite.
Read his latest weekly market commentary. https://t.co/zyoSaBWvcd
It’s tempting to draw parallels between today’s market and the late 1990s, especially with Alan Greenspan’s passing and the recent selloff in tech stocks. But Brian Levitt, our Chief Global Market Strategist, doesn’t think the comparison holds up. To him, today’s environment looks healthier and more balanced than the one before the dotcom bust:
▪️ Leadership within technology stocks has shifted to companies benefiting from AI-related investment. To him, that’s a rotation, not a breakdown.
▪️ The rotation isn’t limited to technology. Most companies in the S&P 500 Index have been positive in June and up more than 14% year to date.
▪️ Oil prices have fallen, inflation expectations have declined, and breakevens point to moderation rather than acceleration.
Read his latest weekly market commentary. https://t.co/vVmiv73MUh
As a lifelong Knicks fan, years of disappointment conditioned our Chief Global Market Strategist Brian Levitt and other New York fans to anticipate collapse, even as greatness was right in front of them. In hindsight, he realized how good the team was. To him, that feels a lot like the market’s relationship with AI.
▪️ The underlying AI story didn’t change much. What changed was investors’ interpretation of it. For a while, the market viewed AI too narrowly. But the opportunity may be broader with infrastructure, agentic AI, and persistent intelligence becoming part of the economic fabric.
▪️ In addition, simultaneous peaks in oil prices, inflation expectations, and interest rates could create a good macro backdrop for markets.
Get more insight in his latest #AbovetheNoise. https://t.co/zVdqDDuY6i