CoffeeTeaInvestment

Independent Financial Research on Medium and SeekingAlpha. Not financial advice.

[email protected] for enquires/business

[CoffeeTeaInvestment @InvestmentTea]

The reason why we begin to cover stocks on SeekingAlpha is partially because of poor coverages with no foresight. Imagine putting up BUY calls for $CS after the Archegos blowup, just looking at historical fundamentals and assuming the worst is over. (1/8)

[CoffeeTeaInvestment @InvestmentTea]

@BillAckman @realDonaldTrump Once again, how short are you in this conflict? Starting to speak like a hitman, Bill...

[CoffeeTeaInvestment @InvestmentTea]

"i would rather have a german division in front of me than a french division behind me."

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

Now that it is going well, @EmmanuelMacron wants to be able to claim credit for participating.

[CoffeeTeaInvestment @InvestmentTea]

@ParrotCapital "Mr (Ackman), pay. Pay and don't speak"

[CoffeeTeaInvestment @InvestmentTea]

@elonmusk @ResisttheMS What's on the line? 12 months to do so and if not?

[CoffeeTeaInvestment @InvestmentTea]

@devahaz Another dick-riding act to get Trump's attention

[CoffeeTeaInvestment @InvestmentTea]

@BillAckman Coming from YOUR mouth!

[George Noble @gnoble79]

In 45 years on Wall Street, I've never seen anything like this.

Sam Altman just convinced 3 of the world's smartest investors to fund his losses.

$110 billion. But ZERO profit in sight.

The largest private funding round in history.

Let me explain why this is borderline criminal & what you have to understand as an investor:

Amazon. Nvidia. SoftBank.

3 of the world's most sophisticated investors just handed OpenAI $110 billion at an $840 billion valuation.

That's more than double the $40 billion OpenAI raised last year.

For context: all US venture capital combined invested $170 billion into American startups in all of 2023.

Altman just raised 65% of that. Alone. In one round.

And the company STILL isn't profitable.

Let's look at the actual numbers:

OpenAI burned $8 billion in 2025. They project burning $17 billion in 2026. $35 billion in 2027. $47 billion in 2028.

Cumulative losses before any projected path to profitability: over $115 billion.

Meanwhile, Amazon's $50 billion comes with strings attached. $35 billion is contingent on OpenAI either achieving AGI or completing its IPO by year end.

Read that again.

$35 billion is conditioned on ACHIEVING AGI.

They're literally writing checks against a scientific breakthrough that may not happen on any predictable timeline.

This is what peak cycle financing looks like.

The circular logic every investor should understand:

Amazon invests $50 billion in OpenAI.

OpenAI commits to spending $100 billion on Amazon Web Services.

Nvidia invests $30 billion.

OpenAI commits to buying 3 gigawatts of Nvidia compute.

These aren't arms-length investments. They're vendor financing dressed up as venture capital.

Amazon and Nvidia are essentially paying OpenAI to buy their own products.

The $840 billion valuation prices in a future that doesn't exist yet.

At $13 billion in 2025 revenue, that's 65x revenue.

Even in 2021 - the most speculative bubble in recent tech history - Snowflake peaked at 50-80x revenue.

And Snowflake was actually profitable.

J.P. Morgan calculates that the AI industry needs $650 billion in annual revenue just to generate a 10% return on total infrastructure buildout.

The entire industry currently generates a fraction of that.

I've seen cycles my entire 45-year career.

The 1980s defense build-up. The dot-com bubble. The 2008 mortgage machine.

The pattern is always the same:

When the biggest players start financing each other's growth through circular investment structures, you're not witnessing a revolution...

You're watching the LAST PHASE of a credit cycle.

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said OpenAI is going to be "one of the very big winners long term."

Maybe.

But $840 billion assumes they've already won.

Stock prices follow earnings. Always have. Always will.

And right now, OpenAI's earnings are deeply, structurally, massively negative.

The IPO is coming. The hype will peak. And the question every serious investor needs to answer is simple:

At what price does this actually make sense?

Sam Altman doesn’t know either - he just keeps raising money faster than he can burn it.

This can’t end well.

[Brian McDonald @BrianMcDonaldIE]

Russian politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who died in 2022, warned more than a decade ago that the US would eventually strike Iran and predicted a fallout far bigger than Washington expects (my translation):

"I’m the only one making predictions while everyone else stays quiet. So ask your questions now. I’ll be gone soon, and you won’t get another chance to hear the real answers. Then in 20 years you’ll say, 'You know, Mr Zhirinovsky was already telling us back then what we should’ve done, and we didn’t listen?'

"So what’s their plan? Occupy another bunch of Arab countries, finish off Syria, then hit Iran by force. What’s the trigger here? Where is the pressure on Iran really coming from? It's under the banner of 'democratisation by force,' but in reality it’s about taking control of energy resources. Because the crisis everyone talks about as being in the future is already here."

"The US needs to weaken China. If Iran is attacked, oil goes to $200 a barrel. China can’t handle that. The EU can’t either. One strike on Iran weakens both Europe and China at once. But then there’s Russia. How do you weaken Russia? Iranian refugees can only go one way [and that's] north. To the south is Syria, where a pro-American regime would already be in place. To the south is Iraq, where they’ve been fighting for years and can easily stir things up again. So north it is, through Azerbaijan."

[Richard @ricwe123]

Jeffrey Sachs is spot on.....

[CoffeeTeaInvestment @InvestmentTea]

@LindseyGrahamSC Speak some more and you might lose your seat in the Senate, sir!

[CoffeeTeaInvestment @InvestmentTea]

@BillAckman Bullying office holders in the city that you owned luxury houses in? What happened to working with them? Hypocritical, spineless HEDGE FUND manager

[CoffeeTeaInvestment @InvestmentTea]

@BillAckman @realDonaldTrump Quick question, how long are you in oil and volatility in the market? Do you profit off trumpeting war on social media?

[CoffeeTeaInvestment @InvestmentTea]

When billionaires change their minds within a matter of days, only trust yourself when making investment decisions.

https://t.co/C1sQesEAJ6

[CoffeeTeaInvestment @InvestmentTea]

Here's the real reason why Trump wants to impose a tariff on critical minerals - making Ukraine pay to rebuild their economy and then dipping their fingers into their coffers for profits (double whammy boom boom)
https://t.co/g6Z2BRxPxg

[CoffeeTeaInvestment @InvestmentTea]

This groupthinking in early-stage venture capital investments has got to stop. Just because Softbank is in doesn't mean SWF like Temasek should rush in without doing proper due diligence. This FOMO behaviour is reckless.
https://t.co/xWgMXi3h4P

[CoffeeTeaInvestment @InvestmentTea]

China's 'national team' should be stepping up with a plan to shore up confidence in the Chinese market soon. Fundamentally, equity valuations are sound and market participants are just overreacting to the effect on tariffs in sectors that are well supported by domestic needs.

[CoffeeTeaInvestment @InvestmentTea]

This feels very bobby-axelrod from that one episode. iykyk.
https://t.co/LxbgOmDv8a

[CoffeeTeaInvestment @InvestmentTea]

This will not end well - it's literally the same person who was instrumental in the development of the MBS market that subsequently cratered our economy. Alternative assets should remain as it is.
https://t.co/yXDXIkPz1g

[CoffeeTeaInvestment @InvestmentTea]

It's either they are going to be so levered to the eyeballs trying to shore up bitcoin or that they have some complex swaps going on behind the scene. this will not end well.
https://t.co/Mdt9wZfm2T

[CoffeeTeaInvestment @InvestmentTea]

That's the thing about decision makers in pension funds, they are often connected to established financiers/PE shops in one way or another. Should have done a better DD.
https://t.co/VnbluWoHx4