BREAKING: 🇫🇷 Societe Generale officially becomes the first French bank to get a licence to offer #Bitcoin trading and custody - Reuters
Just getting started... 🚀
Great article Jesse! I especially liked your historical context. When S2F model was published, BTC was $4k and everybody was bearish and most people thought $55k BTC was absurd. I also fully agree with the missteps:
- Setting specific price targets was not smart. Giving price ranges would have been much better. That is why I gave a $100k-1m range for next halving period instead of the $532k point estimate.
- Raising the $55k target to $100k and $288k caused a lot of confusion. And I think it is still not clear to many. $100k model was the result of a discussion about out-of-sample performance at the time. $100k model was an extreme out-of-sample variant (made on 4 yearly data points before 2012 halving!). $288k model was also an extreme model, the S2FX cross asset model, based on other assets (gold silver diamonds real estate). BTW I still love those extreme models, for their fundamental value, but I know they are not very accurate.
IMO there is one more misstep: I always used monthly data and incorrectly thought/said (as late as the interview with Saif) that if the monthly data stays outside standard deviation bands around $55k for too long, S2F model is invalidated. I don't think that is correct. I should have used average halving period data (like the table below) and pointed out that the $55k itself is not very accurate and can be -50% +100% off (while still being useful). Curreent $31k average BTC price is then still within range.
Over the last 3 years, one thing I've learned is to never underestimate how quickly sentiment can shift. From the world is locked down forever, to speculative mania, to great depression incoming, to incoming AI utopia. Deep down we are primitive beings driven by fear and greed.
Excellent answer from @MarkYusko here 🤌
"Blockchain technology is one of the 4 pillars of the digital age. The ABCD's as we call them, that's AI, Blockchains, Computer Chips and Data."
Mortgage rates back to 7%.
Meaning that the cost to buy a house in America is now approaching $2,700/month when including mortgage, tax, insurance, and maintenance.
Meanwhile, cost to rent is $1,850.
Biggest gap we've ever seen. Something has to break.
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₿𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚: "#Bitcoin is on a bull run",
@Saylor explains with new developments,
'Business shorting are bankrupt'
'Bad leverage is gone'
'Fair value accounting'
'Inscriptions/ordinals'
'The Halving'
'Investors know its a commodity'
https://t.co/sBwyxoIaRh
₿𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚: Presidential candidate @RobertKennedyJr says,
“Everybody is so passionate about #bitcoin not just because it’s a currency, but because it’s an exercise in democracy."