Isar

Org psych - focused on making work better

I also write a newsletter & shitpost about politics/econ/AI

All thought are my own

[Isar @Isar_b]

Seeing quite a few posts like this one

Honestly really interesting to see such a broad set of experience

Ultimately if the model is only good with loop / goal coding with crazy token spend, not sure how practical it is for my day to day coding use

[Unemployed Capital Allocator @atelicinvest]

Since everyone's posting their experience with Fable.

My main test case was - can it improve better-edgar?

We had a quick conversation about the product, features, direction, etc.

Came up with a list of improvements to make. They all sounded pretty amazing.

Got it to build it.

One shotted the fully thing.

Except - yep. It was slop. Just absolute utter slop. To the point where when I saw it, I realized how much I've been duped by the original discussion.

Usually, I get back slop from LLM and I fix it up over time because the core is good.

In this case, no - it was literally unsalvageable. The overall idea sounded good, but the execution of it showed just how many little assumptions it was making that turned out to be wrong.

For example - one of its suggestions was to make an email digest product. It sounded pretty good.

The digest products it suggested - Buyback monitor, Activist monitor, Guidance change monitor - all sounded good.

But the way it was tacked onto the product made it seem like a pure money grab. Implemented in the most low effort, confusing way possible.

Back to the drawing board I go.

[Isar @Isar_b]

I'm doing this on Pro so haven't seen the token / billing impact but I imagine it's very expensive. Will use it in Claude code today and I expect that will confirm the much higher cost.

But so far for knowledge work, it's been promising.

[Isar @Isar_b]

Seeing a lot of fable takes - I've played around with a bit last night but will do more today.

Some observations from a non-coding side so far. It does seem better at knowledge work.

Unlike with coding, I can't just give it big goals to go and achieve on its own

But...

1/

[Isar @Isar_b]

It is much more effective in doing sensible, larger iterations - akin to how I work with a colleague.

It does have a tendency to do just a do a thing without checking in with me - so having guidance in skills is going to important in nudging it in the right direction

2/

[Isar @Isar_b]

Why do I say this?

Berkshire has a long standing and excellent relationship with apple. Apple are late to the AI party (maybe intentionally so) and Google can invest enough for both of them

[Isar @Isar_b]

Okay so following the $BRK.B purchase of Google shares in their latest equity raise, I've been wondering what gives Abel and confidence to double down

Here's a theory so hear me out - Google is massively deepening it's partnership with Apple

3 examples...

[Tommy @_TommyMason]

One hell of a leak if it turns out to be true

[Isar @Isar_b]

Pillar 3 (pure speculation)

I could imagine a deal for on device models, pushing Nvidia to compete through it's ARM deals that just got announced with Microsoft

[Isar @Isar_b]

Just LET ME USE THE LEVY FOR PAYROLL COSTS OF UNDER 25s

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 NEW: The Government has announced 300,000 new training and work experience placements across construction, social care and hospitality to tackle youth unemployment

[Isar @Isar_b]

@shriyanevatia Or the long tail of an era of degenerately loose monetary policy

[Isar @Isar_b]

Seen lots of tweets of people clowning on Berkshire stock performance, which makes me want to buy much more lol

[Isar @Isar_b]

@John_Stepek @cyclist_jim @Nicoledso Yeah that's fair - I do think a market correction is coming and when it does this policy won't look ideal

[Isar @Isar_b]

@John_Stepek @cyclist_jim @Nicoledso @John_Stepek - what do you think of the politics of this?

https://t.co/dKh0K4EFxR

[Isar @Isar_b]

Ignoring the actual policy design - This is fascinating politically:

We're at all time highs for many equity markets and Reeves is saying cashing out should be discouraged

Old people get an easier ride - when they've had an easier ride since the triple lock & don't vote for you

[Isar @Isar_b]

@John_Stepek @cyclist_jim @Nicoledso I can just see a world where bond accumulation ETFs (rather than distribution ones) are going to be work arounds - honestly tho, this all just feels kinda ineffective and distortive

[Isar @Isar_b]

Ignoring the actual policy design - This is fascinating politically:

We're at all time highs for many equity markets and Reeves is saying cashing out should be discouraged

Old people get an easier ride - when they've had an easier ride since the triple lock & don't vote for you

[🇬🇧 Tom - Investor £130k @2147mill]

Important ISA rule changes coming April 2027 (as far as I understand but correct me if wrong).

Read this carefully.

The total £20,000 ISA allowance stays the same. But if you're aged 18-64 you can only put £12,000 into a Cash ISA. The remaining £8,000 must go elsewhere.

There's also a further sting. HMRC will introduce a 20% tax charge on interest earned from uninvested cash held inside a Stocks & Shares ISA.

Transfers from Stocks & Shares ISAs into Cash ISAs will also be banned for under 65s.

What this means in plain English:

→ Cash ISA: £12,000 max from April 2027
→ S&S ISA: Still £20,000. Untouched.
→ Uninvested cash sitting in your S&S ISA: Now taxed at 20% on interest earned
→ Over 65s: Nothing changes

The government isn't punishing investors. They're punishing people who use investment accounts as savings accounts.

This tax year is the last year you can deposit the full £20,000 into a Cash ISA.

If you hold cash in your S&S ISA uninvested.
Put it to work before April 2027.

[Isar @Isar_b]

@John_Stepek @cyclist_jim @Nicoledso Question - if you invested in a money market etf, does that get taxed?

[Isar @Isar_b]

They win a v narrow majority with extremely heavily tactical voting

Reform as opposition

Tories in real trouble - but hold onto seats where they're the tolerable alternative to reform

Vibes are bad but hopefully - at least labour have 5 years to unfuck everything

/End

[Isar @Isar_b]

Here's a hypothetical series of events I think are collectively unlikely but not impossible:

Burnham wins makerfield because Restore split the right vote and he's personally popular

1/

[Isar @Isar_b]

They say around November that they need a mandate to govern - and that they are the only credible non reform party

(More likely if there's no Restore / Reform merger by this point)

They call a snap election for Jan

3/