Israel Radar

Geopolitical Intelligence & Early Warnings • Regional Security & Global Terrorism •

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

PM Netanyahu is pressing for a joint US-Israeli assault on Iran, N12 News says; most US officials around Trump reportedly oppose resumption of war.

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

IDF completed all preparations for another round of fighting with Iran, Ynet reports; Israeli readiness for war is very high.

10 US cargo planes delivered military gear to Israel in the past week; IDF is closely coordinated with US military, Trump will make final decision.

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@ELuttwak So how do you explain Netanyahu's decline and weaker result? Both his party and his bloc are smaller

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

@ukrainesupp3 As I clearly said, this was based on the exit polls, which turned out to be off. I Still think Eisenkot has a chance, but lower probability

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

My prediction based on exit polls and initial indications: Gadi Eisenkot will be Israel's next PM, possibly forming a minority government.

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

@justtwoweeks20 I looked at some in depth statistical analysis from different people, from different political camps. It's clear there will not be dramatic shifts anymore.

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

People asked why I didn't cite the Channel 14 election poll.
Last night hours after the vote ended, ch. 14 predicted 62 seats for Netanyahu bloc with Lieberman not passing the threshold.
In reality, Netanyahu got 53-55, Lieberman got 7. That was the worst poll, not even close 👇

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

@bruce58965 Eisenkot likely has more endorsements in total, that's how the Israeli system works

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

Election update:
Netanyahu bloc down to 53
Eisenkot bloc down to 48
Still waiting for soldiers' votes to get final numbers.
Eisenkot will likely get first shot at forming a government, according to media reports.
If he fails, Netanyahu will get a chance.

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

After 77% of votes counted:
Netanyahu bloc 54
Eisenkot 49
Arab parties 17

As I tried to explain here, early vote count didn't matter much. Netanyahu was at 59 this morning 👇

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

@shukel245 Ch. 14 started at 60 and adjusted wrong. Other channels were at 50-51 and adjusted right. And Netanyahu is currently at 53

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

@Osint613 Yeah, channels 11, 12, 13 were way off on Likud, but relatively accurate on the blocs. Channel 14 was way off calling a Netanyahu majority.
Eisenkot's path to PM much harder after exit polls were adjusted. But he still has a theoretical chance. Will be interesting to watch.

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

@TryWhopify No, channel 14 got the blocs wrong by the widest margin. It's simple math

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

@itzikgoal Channel 14 predicted 62 for Netanyahu bloc, AFTER the vote ended.
Channels 11, 12, 13 predicted 50-51 for Bibi and quickly adjusted up.
Netanyahu's final tally will be 53-55. It's really simple math to see who was closer.

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

@justtwoweeks20 You think that will push Netanyahu over 60 or even close? You'll be disappointed

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

@plew_samuel He will likely be endorsed by more Knesset members at this stage

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

@GruberMendy He has 68 right now.
But sure, he won 64 last time and say 54 this time. Large drop. The lowest total for Bibi's bloc in over 15 years. And he no longer has a majority. That's just reality.

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

Here's the election bottom line:
Netanyahu suffered a serious setback but not a clear defeat.
His coalition dropped from 68 seats to 50+. He lost his majority and can't form a coalition.
Bibi can aim for a unity govt or a new election if Eisenkot fails to form a coalition.

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

@GruberMendy Are you not aware that Netanyahu's coalition is currently 68 seats? And that the Netanyahu bloc is set to win 53-54 seats this time?

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

After 77% of votes counted:
Netanyahu bloc 54
Eisenkot 49
Arab parties 17

As I tried to explain here, early vote count didn't matter much. Netanyahu was at 59 this morning 👇

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

If you're following the partial vote count of the Israeli election, be aware that votes counted so far are not a representative sample.

For example, many more votes counted in Jerusalem than in Tel Aviv. So far, more votes counted in traditionally pro-Netanyahu areas.

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

@johnondrasik Bibi lost his majority. His coalition dropped from 68 seats out if 120 to 50 something. He can't form the same coalition now.
But his rivals will also have a very hard time forming a coalition. If they fail, it's either a unity government of Bibi and his rivals, or new election.

[Israel Radar @IsraelRadar_com]

@HeTows אני נוטה לחשוב שהמסקנה שלך נכונה וחכמה