@joinyellowbrick@P14Capital@MattJMcClintock@BlokeOak57182@DavidDiranko Tnx, but would not say my note is "short". Consensus pile-in continues & valuations continue to rise, creating a mixed & uncertain, but not necessarily negative outlook for the shares.
I say all this in the note, as there is quite a bit of nuance.
It appears the early pundits were fairly correct, in that the administration has seriously damaged global U.S. credibility.
The U.S. now largely relies on its (formidable) military might for continued exertion of power.
$TSLA's AV business is now accounts for 93% of its market cap, slightly above the LT average of 87%, but comfortable below the late 2024 peak of 96-97%.
If they sound smart and have low returns, run.
If they sound dumb and have high returns, ask them how.
If they sound smart and have high returns, study them.
If they sound dumb and have low returns, run.
If they sound smart and have low returns, run.
If they sound dumb and have high returns, ask them how.
If they sound smart and have high returns, study them.
If they sound dumb and have low returns, run.
@litcapital What? He would've blown up if he was a VC. Funding highly illiquid bets with demand liabilities is... beyond asinine.
It's also exactly what he did.
"Lack of visibility" is a commonly cited, but terribly lazy reason for cutting estimates. If you lack visibility and aren't lazy, do a sensitivity.
Most analysts just built models that are too rigid and don't have the wherewithal to fix it.
Great thread.
Uranium (esp the miners) are highly misunderstood & often deceptively opaque across disclosures.
Many shops are default long anything that touches U3O8 and $CCJ in particular, given liquidity & mkt cap.
I pretty much never comment on single stocks in public because I donβt need batsht replies that randomly result and I donβt need bad blood with mgmts, but this deserves to be flagged as an exhibit in why it still matters to show up for the quarterly call.
1/10
@StockSavvyShay@FuturumEquities $NVDA has become the default long for AI.
Retail, institutional, everybody continues to pile in no matter how high the shares go.
A lot of people will go running for the tiny exit door all at once... just don't know when.
Not over till the fat lady sings...
I disagree with this a lot.
The U.S. controlled global supply chains for much of the last 5 decades.
What's happened is the U.S. bloc has fractured, and many have coalesced around China.
There is more likely to be re-globalization, but excluding the U.S.
U.S.-CHINA RIVALRY DRIVING NEW ERA OF DEGLOBALIZATION: WELLS FARGO
Wells Fargo says the world economy is fragmenting into rival blocs led by the U.S. and China, marking a βsecond era of deglobalization.β Cross-bloc trade, capital flows, and financial ties could erode as both nations cut dependencies rather than integrate.
Most G10 countries are likely to align with the U.S., while parts of Asia and Africa may lean toward China. Latin America remains split, making it a key arena for influence. Wells Fargo notes bloc formation has been underway for years but full fragmentation is still distant.