JTrade

BTC/ETH trading log

[JTrade @J15831535]

Looking at the recent software stock meltdown, some tickers seem to have reached a criminally undervalued level. How can 20% drop in $APP be justified, given the most recent earnings?

AI existential crisis concerns are more relevant to tickers like $CRM, $WDAY, $ADBE, $FIG, which seem to be doing fine, ironically.

I understand the profit-taking sentiment following the meteoric stock rise in 2025, but $APP's fundamentals are too good to ignore. It seems like the market is in a disbelief stage, where it is skeptical of the fundamentals that $APP is producing and expects the winning streak to break.

[JTrade @J15831535]

Ethereum as the Future Anchor

Currently, Ethereum is the asset that most closely aligns with this vision. If Ethereum becomes the layer upon which global economic activity is settled, it becomes the most natural foundation for credit creation and liquidity. While it need not be the sole source of liquidity—as "hard assets" will always be needed to mitigate the risks of reflexivity—Ethereum is uniquely positioned to serve as the primary collateral for the next evolution of the global financial system.

[JTrade @J15831535]

The Shift Toward Digital Settlement Layers as Global Collateral

The global economy is currently flirting with a return to "Hard Money." Since the abandonment of the Bretton Woods gold peg—a move necessitated by gold’s inability to meet the liquidity demands of a burgeoning global economy—the fiat credit system has driven 50 years of unprecedented growth. The ability to issue debt to stimulate growth is fundamentally superior to the rigid constraints of a hard-money-only economy. Yet, as the trust-based system anchored solely by the U.S. government reaches its limits, the world is searching for what comes next.

[JTrade @J15831535]

The Case for a Settlement Layer Asset

A viable global collateral must meet two criteria:
1. Existential Correlation: If the collateral fails, the economy it supports must inherently cease to function.
2. Reflexive Elasticity: Its value must naturally scale with the volume of economic activity.
The most logical candidate is the asset that secures the settlement layer of the global economy. If all transactions are settled on a specific protocol, the "security fees" paid by participants give that asset intrinsic value. As the economy expands, demand for settlement—and thus the value of the collateral—increases.

[JTrade @J15831535]

The Decoupling of Sovereignty and Value

Historically, sovereign credit served as this collateral. The value of the Korean Won, for instance, is backed by the functional stability of the Korean government. However, we are entering an era where value transcends borders. The economic footprints of giants like Samsung or TSMC are no longer strictly tethered to the fate of their home nations. As the nation-state becomes a framework for governance rather than a guarantor of value, we must identify a new global anchor.

[JTrade @J15831535]

BTC rebound happening as 50day EMA touches 200day EMA. If the rebound continues for a bit consolidation will happen and may be a signal to buy. If not 50day EMA will break 200day EMA and head down. Still a bit early to make the call.

[JTrade @J15831535]

11/13/2025 8:28AM

CPI delayed, Fed seems to lean more hawkish.

[JTrade @J15831535]

11/12/2025 2:07AM EST

BTC 50-day EMA expected to reach 200-day EMA in 8-10 days, given CPI comes out well. If the crossing slope is close enough,it may be a sign of BTC consolidation.

[JTrade @J15831535]

Investors are cautious regarding the upcoming CPI release. Risk-reward ratio probably not favorable until the numbers come out.

If the CPI comes out well, the next positive signal is a smooth cross of the 50-day EMA/200-day EMA for BTC, along with QQQ returning to close to its all-time high.

If CPI comes out badly, the bull market may break. A lot of uncertainties loom.

[JTrade @J15831535]

@TedPillows There isn't much signal until CPI this Thursday. Everything else is noise until then.

[JTrade @J15831535]

@TedPillows Governments are taking precautionary measures, aware that stablecoins can potentially erode their local currency values and take away seigniorage. Bretten Woods was already a blow to BoE, they know that stablecoins denominated in USD may be the final blow.

[JTrade @J15831535]

11/10/2025 4:36AM EST

Exiting BTC positions for now after making a meager amount. Shutdown ending confirmed but didn't seem to spark that much of an effect. Will wait for better signals to reenter.

[JTrade @J15831535]

This account focuses on 2 things.

1. Enter only at high conviction entry points, with bet size being proportional to the conviction level.

2. Exit when triggers that justified entry points have served their purposes.

These trades do not attempt to capture 10x but focus on minimizing drawdown. The goal is to consistently win at a small scale, not to retire in a single cycle.

[JTrade @J15831535]

11/9/2025 2:47pm
The allocation increase/decrease will depend on further confirmation of the shutdown ending & Monday's market sentiment regarding the "AI bubble" (QQQ movement).

QE/December rate cut signals are also very important, but unclear as to when we will see those signals.

[JTrade @J15831535]

11/9/2025 2:24pm EST
BTC 50 day EMA about to cross 200 day EMA with shutdown likely to end within a week. Reasonable time to enter bitcoin position with a small portion of the pot.

[JTrade @J15831535]

11/9/2025 2:41pm
ETH also rising at the news but waiting for some more confirmation since 9 day EMA still has a meaningful gap towards 50 day EMA.