JAZ Macro

Macro trader specialising in Futures

[JAZ Macro @JAZCap]

another FAKE headline......

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Iran-U.S. talks enter technical stage, Al-Jazeera journalist reports
https://t.co/OL5QU47gbq

[JAZ Macro @JAZCap]

yields smashing higher, and equities still up on the day

if we're not -1% on $SPX today, STOP FKN TRADING, IT'S ALL OVER!!!

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

2008 was an oil crisis. 2026 is a refining crisis.

2008 (peak)
Oil = $147
Diesel = $4.76 retail
Gasoline = $4.16 retail

Today
Oil = $95
Diesel = $6.53 retail
Gasoline = $4.52 retail

[JAZ Macro @JAZCap]

explain it to me like i'm 5

if you can't do it in the 9 months BEFORE an election, why would be magically be able to make a deal "right after" the election???

[investingLive @investingLive_]

Trump: I believe we will make a deal with Iran right after US election
https://t.co/khu1QXvfBa

[OddStats @OddStats]

FUCK.

Been a while since I posted something this interesting.

Today, QQQ was
▪ Up at least +2.75%
▪ On a day VXN (VIX for QQQ) was up at least +1.00 point

And how has QQQ done 2 weeks and 1 month after every similar event in the past?

Hahahahahahafuck.

[JAZ Macro @JAZCap]

what utter BS

are you NOT buying it from canada at market prices???

so........are the belarus companies just going to be donating potash to you now???

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

TRUMP EYES MAJOR BELARUS POTASH DEAL

President Trump says the U.S. is working on a large-scale agreement to buy potash from Belarus.

Trump says the fertilizer would be purchased at substantially lower prices than current Canadian supplies, potentially reducing input costs for U.S. farmers and ranchers.

[SpotGamma @spotgamma]

On July 7 we flagged the record SPX/NDX volatility spread and called for a re-sync: the Nasdaq then fell 8%, the S&P just 3%, and the spread is back near its long-term mean.

Over 24% of the S&P's weight now trades against the index on oil and rates. At the same time, the Nasdaq appears positioned for upside with heavy tech vols arguably cheap compared to the extremes of July.
https://t.co/06OCoCd806

[JAZ Macro @JAZCap]

hey dumbfk @realDonaldTrump , if they REALLY wanted to make a deal, WHY HAVEN'T THEY????

IT'S BEEN 7 MONTHS!!!

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

🔴 Trump to NewsNation: Houthis would also like to make a deal.

[Electrek.co @ElectrekCo]

Tesla's record month: 4 fatal Autopilot and Full Self-Driving crashes https://t.co/upRtau6H9i by @fredlambert

[JAZ Macro @JAZCap]

@SecScottBessent this guy is the dumbest fkn treasury secretary EVER.....

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

US Treasury Secretary Bessent: There are ways to do $5,000 checks without affecting deficit.

[Fred Lambert @FredLambert]

Tesla had a record month for Autopilot and Full Self-Driving crashes, based on NHTSA data.

4 of them were fatal crashes. 7 people died in those crashes.

Tesla redacted most of the data submitted to NHTSA, but with the limited data available, @ElectrekCo was able to match it to publicly reported crashes to get a more complete picture of what happened.

[JAZ Macro @JAZCap]

come on, every single day...................

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

OMAN, U.S. DISCUSS REGIONAL DE-ESCALATION

Oman’s Foreign Minister held a phone call with his U.S. counterpart to discuss rapidly evolving regional developments and efforts to reduce tensions and contain the fallout.

The two also discussed creating conditions for continued diplomacy and resolving outstanding issues, while reaffirming closer U.S.-Oman coordination on regional security and stability.

[JAZ Macro @JAZCap]

ololololol

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

IRAN REJECTS TRUMP’S DEAL CLAIM

Iranian state-linked Tasnim News rejected Trump’s claim that Tehran wants a quick deal with Washington.

The outlet said Iran has repeatedly stated it does not seek negotiations with the U.S. government, accusing Trump of making false claims about Tehran’s willingness to reach an agreement.

[JAZ Macro @JAZCap]

@Harvie3Culley Make the world think America is a shitbole

[JAZ Macro @JAZCap]

@mmpadellan He is reading the teleprompter…. He doesn’t have the ability to realise it was 2001, not 20 0 1….

[Ghasem Makarem @GhasemMakarem]

🚨 BREAKING

🔴 Saudi front collapses in #Yemen as 3 full brigades surrender

🔹Three full brigades of #Saudi forces and their allied fighters, along with their light and heavy weapons, have surrendered to Yemeni #Houthi forces across the Hays, Al-Mokha, Al-Khokha, Taiz and Al-Jawf fronts.

🔹Ansar Allah has described the event as the largest mass-capture operation in the history of modern warfare.

[JAZ Macro @JAZCap]

What’s going to magically stop the war after the mid terms when you can’t do it for the 6 months so far…

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

TRUMP SEES IRAN WAR ENDING AFTER MIDTERMS

President Donald Trump said he expects the Iran war to end after November’s U.S. midterm elections, while again threatening strikes on Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site.

Meanwhile, Iran and the U.S. intensified attacks on shipping, while Houthis advanced toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, threatening another critical energy route.

Brent crude remained above $100 as disruptions across both Hormuz and the Red Sea heightened global supply risks.

[JAZ Macro @JAZCap]

i thought there was a rule against BUYING votes???

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Trump: if Republicans secure house and senate, I'll issue $5,000 payout to every U.S. adult

[LanaQuest aka RosaSparks @LqLana]

Adam Hoffman raped his son’s best friend from the age of six years old to nine years old. For three years this man raped a little boy.

Paxton made sure his buddy only got a 60-day sentence. Oh wait it gets better, he didn't even serve the full sixty days.

Wait wait, it's gets even better. He doesn't have to register as a sex offender and his record has been wiped clean.

Ken Paxton is a disgusting criminal, and Ted Cruz is blaming Biden for ruining Texas. Not Abbott. Not Paxton and not himself. Joe Biden.

Make sure you have a plan to vote. @jamestalarico is what Texas needs. Not more of the Epstein Class.
#DemsUnited

[HealthRanger @HealthRanger]

Trump is of course a liar about using Venezuelan heavy crude oil to refill the SPR.

The SPR has strict quality requirements such as a maximum of 1.99% sulfur content. Venezuelan oil is 5.7% sulfur, which is considered insanely "sour." It also happens to be highly acidic which would eat away at the storage cave walls, likely causing cave-ins and collapse.

There are other requirements, too, such as API gravity. Venezuelan oil doesn't qualify. If you pour it in, you can never get it back out. Too sludgy. It basically just becomes a giant "tar cave" of sludge that's unpumpable.

So once again, Trump is lying about the whole thing. There's much more to this story, too, such as the fact that the 65 billion barrels of oil can't possibly be tapped without at least A FULL DECADE of infrastructure investment in Venezuela, and at least $100 billion in investment funds, plus you have to find all the experts around the world who know how to do these things and somehow entice them to move to what is effectively a war zone where local resistance groups will be targeting them constantly.

So nope, your gas prices aren't going to get any better tomorrow. It's all just smoke and mirrors. As usual.