J.C. Butler

Dad, husband, techish entrepreneur, and frequent backseat driver.

[J.C. Butler @JCButler]

@ForecasterEnten There is such a strong bias to read the results as about race, education, religion, and income. Looking at the map, much of those seem to just be a proxy for Rural vs Urban. Pretty much across the board, Rural shifted R, and Urban shifted D...

[J.C. Butler @JCButler]

@jbarro @TimAlberta Required reading for anyone with an eye on 2022...

[Josh Barro @jbarro]

Lots of good nuance in this @TimAlberta profile of Elissa Slotkin, including how young moderates like her and young leftists like AOC have some essentially similar complaints about Democratic leadership. https://t.co/q7PqQbBeM1

[J.C. Butler @JCButler]

@ThatCryptoClub1 @tyler Was ThatCrypticCryptoConspiracyClub too long of a Twitter handle?

[J.C. Butler @JCButler]

@steve_vladeck @bradheath This might just be my favorite exit poll!

[J.C. Butler @JCButler]

Happy Veterans Day

[Steve Vladeck @steve_vladeck]

This whole @bradheath thread on the weakness of the allegations in Trump’s new Michigan lawsuit is worth reading. But this part stood out:

Their *best* evidence of fraud is their inability to understand why people would vote against Trump. That’s sad — and it ain’t evidence.

[Carol Leonnig @CarolLeonnig]

Trump lawyer: no fraud that I know of at present

[John Fetterman @JohnFetterman]

Hey, Governor Patrick- it’s your counterpart in Pennsylvania.

I’d like to collect your handsome reward for reporting voter fraud.

I got a dude in Forty Fort, PA who tried to have his dead mom vote for Trump.

I’d like mine in Sheetz gift cards pls.

ps. The Cowboys blow.

[J.C. Butler @JCButler]

@GabeTheCentrist @ForecasterEnten True - Miami is always the exception to *every* rule. BUT if the rural vote is really just a correlation for low trust in large central gov't - then the rural and Cuban vote move in tandem here.

[J.C. Butler @JCButler]

@NateSilver538 Are there certain demographics that are harder to poll? E.g. Rural voters who seemed to shift hard R across demographic factors?

[J.C. Butler @JCButler]

@ForecasterEnten Thus the right, not having gov't institutions or media as a touchpoint for truth, is more susceptible to conspiracy theories ranging from wide spread voter fraud to QAnon.

[J.C. Butler @JCButler]

@ForecasterEnten And it's likely that Rural vs Urban is itself a proxy for lower vs higher trust in the Federal Gov't and its institutions. It makes sense that Trump's open contempt for the Gov't and its institutions rearranged the parties along those lines...

[J.C. Butler @JCButler]

@TonyGallippi Polling averages, which provide a mathematical check on irregularities in election results, would suggest that if anything suspicious happened, it happened in favor of Trump. But that too is highly unlikely because (a) it's within the margin of error, and (b) zero evidence.

[J.C. Butler @JCButler]

@TonyGallippi You fancy yourself a contrarian thinker, which means you often disagree with the popular narrative. Yet, with zero evidence, you think the only explanation that the popular vote disagrees with you is because of widespread fraud? A contrarian has evidence, a theorist does not.

[J.C. Butler @JCButler]

Yep

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

If it's both strategically convenient and emotionally satisfying to hold a certain belief *and* you have a movement that believes there are no neutral gatekeepers to snap you back to reality, then at some point this all seems to become fairly self-reinforcing.

[J.C. Butler @JCButler]

@nielslesniewski @maggieNYT You think they would say this if they were safe for another 6 years and didn't both have runoffs coming up? Apparently Trump's not the only one to place their job above the future of democracy in this country.

[Steve Vladeck @steve_vladeck]

There’s currently a Senate-confirmed Deputy Secretary of Defense — David Norquist. Under 10 U.S.C. § 132(b), *he* is supposed to become Acting Secretary in the event of a vacancy.

Unless Trump fired him, too.

[Steve Vladeck @steve_vladeck]

Note the date: November 10 was two days after Election Day and the day after the *media* (and not the states or the courts) called the election for Trump and Pence.

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

Yeah this seems important! The Pfizer vaccine is a bear to distributed (two doses, requires cold storage). But it probably also implies good things for other vaccines, too.