(((Harry Enten)))

Son of a man who was far from perfect, but I loved him anyway.

CNN’s Chief Data Analyst. Go Bills.

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

Let's start a cute dog thread... Whose got a pup photo they wanna share?

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

Ton of copium was being drunk by Trump & some GOP leaders pre-election.

Polls showed Dems were favored to win the Senate with room to spare.

Many polls showed a 10+ pt win for the Dems in the national house vote.

Polls had Trump as the most unpopular prez ever pre-midterm.

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

K.

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

Tuesday was a mandate for Dems. See House vote.

It was wide. (Shift to Dems in all 50 states vs. 2024.)

It was deep. (Shift was 14 pts in avg. state.)

It was historic. (Largest House vote margin 50 years?)

Democrats won the House vote in states with 399 electoral votes.

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

There are always going to be margins of error... and it's important to acknowledge those...

But the modal outcome ended up being a Dem sweep & with ease.

(The MOE in this case worked in clearly underestimating Dems!)

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

There had been two presidents prior to Trump who entered a midterm with a -15 pt or worse net approval: Trump in 1946 & Bush in 2006.

Both lost the House & the Senate...

Trump continues that tradition.

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

While it wasn't a sure thing (what is?), the poll data (horserace & not) & off-year elections/turnout ended up pointing in one direction.

The question was whether you chose to believe those indicators as pointing to the likely outcome.

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

I'm still in the office. What are y'all up to?

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

@SeanTrende I'm getting 11.4 points and going up.

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

Really want some fried chicken.

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

When I was 6 or younger (4?), my Father took me into the voting booth for the first time. I remember the older poll worker giving me a Stella D'oro cookie.

I remember watching election night 2000. I watched whatever channel came in clearest via an antenna.

Got me hooked.

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

@RalstonReports There are those who enjoy only the end result... I enjoy the ride.

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

Got to talk about AFC leading Buffalo Bills... Loved chatting about it... We're 6-1!!!!
https://t.co/71XW96LWbl

[The Buffalo News @TheBuffaloNews]

Enten’s love of the Bills is sprinkled throughout many of his performances – and they are performances – as CNN’s chief data analyst for the midterm elections, Pergament says. https://t.co/7iL9wKOXm7

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

@Phil_Mattingly That was my twin... Barry. Also, look how young Barry looked.

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

We'll see, but the polls out of Texas are earthquake stuff.

No TX Dem has polled as well as Talarico at the end of a Senate campaign since 1988.

No TX GOP Sen nominee in the 2000s has been as unpopular as Paxton.

Trump's the most unpopular GOP pres pre-midterm in the 2000s.

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

@ChrisStirewalt You should send me a pack of diet soda for that comment.

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

Some Senate polls show the GOP doing much better among likely voters than all registered voters. National polls don't show this.

I buy the national polls given validated voter files from years past. The GOP can't count on a 2026 electorate to be much more GOP than all voters.

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

I remember when Israel directly elected the prime minister.

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

The data to me says that if anything the issue of Israel is helpful to El-Sayed in Michigan.

He does better among voters who say it's extremely impt to their vote than overall.

Most Mich voters & indies want military aid ended or reduced to Israel.

AIPAC is deeply unpopular.

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

The GOP shouldn't be counting on a poll miss to win the Senate (though it's possible!).

Dems have actually been slightly more likely to outperform the polls in close Senate races since 1998.

Same in 2018 (Trump's 1st midterm) & Dems outperformed in all 2022 close races.

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

I'm more of a Friendly's guy myself.