Sean T at RCP

Sr. Elections Analyst, @RCPolitics, Visiting Scholar, @AEI, Lecturer, @osupolisci. Recovering Attorney. Husband, Dad. Writes about elections, history and more.

[Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende]

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[Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende]

@LPDonovan MI-Sen tied or Halperin flip-flop? :-)

[Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende]

lulz
https://t.co/n80EnmWIpO

[Jonah Goldberg @JonahDispatch]

There’s a lot of this vibe in DC these days.

[Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende]

@WilliamRFuqua @evanwch It is in many ways, a more genteel version of Trump’s gratuitous punching down turning off upper middle class suburban Republicans. Gained him nothing, but the losses are real.

[Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende]

@WilliamRFuqua @evanwch You can remain un offended by this while recognizing that this pose hurts Democrats. No one is going to be excited by Obama dunking on cheesecake factory but overtime these types of comments, reinforce a perception of us versus them.

[Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende]

@Heminator Like try to keep track of the key and if I fell without sitting down and really scrutinizing records. It’s shockingly clever for a pop song.

[Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende]

@Heminator It’s formulaic because of how many people have copied them! Even there early Poppy stuff was groundbreaking in the use of harmonies and the weird way they resolve their chords. Pure stupidity.

[Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende]

@evanwch @PfftMaybe Olive Garden breadsticks are made of garlic salt and magic. That's really all I have to add to continuing this conversation.

[Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende]

@arrowoog Great call

[Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende]

Otherworld

[David Scott @Rippinghawk]

name a cancelled tv show that deserved at least one more season.

Firefly

[Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende]

I'll put her down as undecided.

[Gloria Álvarez @GloriaAlvarez85]

¡COÑO MARCO! NOW? 🇨🇺🇺🇸 Really? Now? You really mean NOW before November 3rd when they come after your Orange 🍊 boss for the Epstein Files?
Really you are gonna do in 10 days what NONE of you or any American government has EVER done for any of us Cubans who have seen died 7 generaciones de padres y abuelos sin libertad?

¡COÑO MARCO! Ojalá en 10 días hagas lo que NO han hecho en 7 décadas, otherwise MAGA will be from all the BS administrations, the one who has betrayed Cubans with false promises following Kennedy with Bahía De Cochinos….. the MOST

[Varad Mehta @varadmehta]

Shorter NYT: It's really, really hard to win a Senate seat in a state that the other party's presidential nominee won by double digits.

[Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende]

@steveschale An early storyline was MAGA staying home in R states to enable big D wins, but what does that look like? A 4-pt D shift? 8-point? What if it is all persuasion? Just entrails!

[Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende]

I've now seen back-to-back tweets, from two very different states, of people arguing exact opposite interpretations of the same early voting data. Beware, it's a Choose-Your-Own-Adventure.

[Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende]

@steveschale Yeah…the other thing is that we don’t really know what “bad” means. Like I do t think anyone seriously thinks it is going to be a good R year or even neutral. It’s a question of whether Rs lose multiple Trump+10 senate seats. Don’t know what that looks like in EV.

[Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende]

@FishJeremi52225 @WinWithJMC Right -- it could be Election Day, which is why this is dodgy. The poll you reference, however, suggest a substantial switch to EIP, not Election Day.

[Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende]

@FishJeremi52225 @WinWithJMC But I don’t think the polls show increased preference for election day voting. It’s a switched to early in person. But my big picture take is that this mostly just gives us something to do and shouldn’t be relied upon precisely because we don’t know about election day vote

[Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende]

@WinWithJMC OK, now I'm confused haha. It sounds like white Democrats are a lower share of the election mix as of Day 4 than they have been in the past. I think that's the only way to make these numbers work?

[Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende]

@WinWithJMC Oh those are *just* 4th day numbers, not cumulative. Tricky, tricky!