Jason C

Market Technician - price is the only truth

[Jason C @JC_GetRichSlow]

Semiconductors would like a word. Never get too cute. Ego investment is a death kneel in markets. Pivot fluidly and with grace. It’s ok to be wrong.

1) semis new ATH
2) SPY weekly back above 680 (pending today’s close)
3) SPY weekly above the 61.8% of the ATH to interim low (pending today’s close)

These 3 put a massive dent in the bearish thesis.

[Ben Kizemchuk @BenKizemchuk]

7% in 7 days, -2% of ATH....

People forget what that those first bear market rallies often look like, before its officially called a "bear".

[Jason C @JC_GetRichSlow]

@ShakePryzby1 Agreed. I suggest you reread my statement.

[Jason C @JC_GetRichSlow]

@JC_ParetsX $SYK is a boring compounder with an incredible secular trend spanning decades. Currently discounted because of a hack disrupting operations. Med tech space and dominating in robotic assisted orthopedics. Huge boomer pipeline.

[Jason C @JC_GetRichSlow]

@JC_ParetsX SYK

[Jason C @JC_GetRichSlow]

Run this through your LLM if you want to see what likely happens next in markets.

-VIX intraday spike at least 35%
-VIX closes up at least 25%
-SMH at least 20M volume
-SMH down at least 7%
-today is Friday
-SPY 3rd lower low (intraday not closing basis)

Run studies with all of these parameters in varying combinations to determine best study for giving positive forward returns and determine likely max drawdown and day of final low within a 2 month window. Cite number of occurrences for each study produced, give a forward returns table with % positive at each interval, show max drawdown and day of final low. Use at least 2 parameters per study. Produce 12 studies. Minimum sample size is 4.

$spy

[Jason C @JC_GetRichSlow]

@JSpitTrades It’s a niche $5B photonics name that nobody outside of fintwit talks about. Hardly some harbinger and despite its high beta outperformance calling it a “leader” is a bit of a stretch.

[Jason C @JC_GetRichSlow]

@ConnorJBates_ Choose your bias wisely.

[Jason C @JC_GetRichSlow]

$APLD too expensive. Like CIFR/WULF too.

The 3 I mentioned are differentiated slightly for my barbell approach to the sector.

NBIS was my top pick but fumbled the bag and cut risk to semis only a couple months back. Couldn’t re-position fast enough after the turn and upside break. Pain. lol

[Jason C @JC_GetRichSlow]

$CORZ and $BTDR will finalize deals and announce during the June/July timeframe.

$IREN will announce their deal in August.

Thank me later.

[Jason C @JC_GetRichSlow]

@JC_ParetsX Simulation confirmed:

[Jason C @JC_GetRichSlow]

@stckpkr7000 Disabled.. checks out.

[Jason C @JC_GetRichSlow]

$AVGO

400 BTD thank me later

[Jason C @JC_GetRichSlow]

$AVGO

20d MA bear market coming in hot for $SPY thurs/fri

[Jason C @JC_GetRichSlow]

Incorrect assumption.

Demand broadly could flatline and AMD can still grow simply by encroaching on NVDAs massive market dominance. A 5% shift from NVDA to AMD is huge for AMD given the numbers. And yes this is happening with Helios rack scale deployments in q4 and beyond. But both are growing as the TAM continues to expand.

The other reality is GM. In 2027 NVDA will likely slip by 3% to low 70s whereas AMD will expand by 3%.

So AMD should be a “more expensive” valuation especially with agentic AI and their entrenchment with CPUs and superior chiplet architecture.

Perhaps the pendulum has swung a bit too far or at least far enough to make NVDA a buy in isolation though.

[Jason C @JC_GetRichSlow]

In 2017 the correlation was legit because semis saw a huge pump from the massive GPU deployments for ETH mining (proof of work boom).

In 2021 the correlation was just an abundance of liquidity flooding the system post COVID stimulus and all risk assets rising in tandem.

In 2025 to present the AI CAPEX dollars don’t flow to bitcoin.

Very simple mechanics if you just look at each asset and cycle in isolation.

[Jason C @JC_GetRichSlow]

@BamaBonds Except any astute trend follower would have exited the markets after the November monthly candle close in 2000 after market broke structure.

[Jason C @JC_GetRichSlow]

@BenBajarin $DGXX

[Jason C @JC_GetRichSlow]

@BenKizemchuk My MRVL longs don’t seem to mind.

[Jason C @JC_GetRichSlow]

@Venu_7_ Monthly chart was ripe but the valuation is bonkers now. No grounding in reality. Just a thin float.

[Jason C @JC_GetRichSlow]

@amitisinvesting I single handedly saved the AI CAPEX trade by signing up for the $20/month Gemini pro last week.

You’re welcome.