Jeremy Chan

Northeast Asia watcher @EurasiaGroup

[Eurasia Group @EurasiaGroup]

There’s very little incentive for China to use its diplomatic leverage to bail the US out of the energy crisis.

Our expert @JChanalytics says Beijing wants a swift resolution, but sees this as a war of choice, and wants to limit its exposure to the downside risks.

@AJEnglish

[Eurasia Group @EurasiaGroup]

Ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, US Treasury Secretary Bessent will meet with his Chinese counterpart.

Our expert @jchanalytics says that overall, the meeting is a positive signal that suggests there may be a surprise upside outcome.
https://t.co/jHxWmLx75K

[Eurasia Group @EurasiaGroup]

“People always say that China doesn’t understand the Mideast,” says our expert @Jchanalytics.

“Maybe China understands it wants to stay as far away from this as possible.”

https://t.co/uLS9dCjxq4

[Eurasia Group @EurasiaGroup]

“Beijing knows deep down that this isn’t about China at all,” says our expert @Jchanalytics about Trump delaying the upcoming summit.

“He can’t be seen hobnobbing with Xi while Hormuz burns.”

https://t.co/HAzWrFeh0g

[Jonathan Cheng @JChengWSJ]

@Ali_Wyne @CrisisGroup “Beijing knows deep down that this isn’t about China at all,” said Jeremy Chan of the political-risk consulting firm @EurasiaGroup. “He can’t be seen hobnobbing with Xi while Hormuz burns.”
@JChanalytics
https://t.co/L9yyo9jgqr

[Eurasia Group @EurasiaGroup]

Our expert @Jchanalytics says the Iran war and delayed China trip are raising the stakes for Japanese PM Takaichi’s White House visit.

Takaichi needs to find a delicate way to tell Trump no when it comes to sending ships and personnel to Hormuz.
https://t.co/oj9BnAtH0x

[Eurasia Group @EurasiaGroup]

Allies are in no hurry to bow to Trump’s demands for support against Iran.

Our expert @Jchanalytics says that leaders in 🇯🇵 & 🇰🇷 are uneasy about supporting a “a war waged without UN authorization that does not directly affect their national security.”
https://t.co/vbzhQgdsEe

[Eurasia Group @EurasiaGroup]

This week, a train left China for North Korea for the first time in six years.

Our expert @JChanalytics explains that Xi is reverting to the pre-Covid status quo by keeping Pyongyang in its orbit through trade, tourism and infrastructure connectivity.

https://t.co/ZrsgTCCzFb

[Eurasia Group @EurasiaGroup]

“Recent global conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and now Iran prove the limits of China’s vision,” says our expert @Jchanalytics.

Beijing will need to develop a more muscular toolbox if it wants to provide quasi-security guarantees for partner countries.

https://t.co/qzdT75auTw

[Eurasia Group @EurasiaGroup]

“Beijing has a greater interest in maintaining its detente with Washington than protecting Tehran or Caracas,” says our expert @Jchanalytics.

https://t.co/vVnAh79Sle

[Eurasia Group @EurasiaGroup]

Our expert @JChanalytics says that Trump’s military endeavors will put a damper on his upcoming meeting with Xi.

“This should further lower expectations of meaningful outcomes from the Trump-Xi summit, although the meeting is still likely to go forward.”
https://t.co/LKLDevPGik

[Eurasia Group @EurasiaGroup]

“Washington will likely delay but not cancel the arms package for Taiwan until after Trump’s visit,” says our expert @Jchanalytics.

Xi clearly signaled that another arms package before April could imperil the visit, which neither side wants.
https://t.co/4YehimXWyh

[Eurasia Group @EurasiaGroup]

Our expert @Jchanalytics says the Wang-Rubio meeting in Munich was likely more about overlapping schedules and keeping the momentum moving towards Trump's visit.

“We’re likely to see another round of Bessent-He trade talks between now and then too."
https://t.co/DdJ1eLjz68

[Eurasia Group @EurasiaGroup]

Key watchpoints for China-Japan relationship from our expert @JChanalytics:

➡️ Who Takaichi appoints to cabinet
➡️ How Takaichi’s visit to Washington goes
➡️ Whether Takaichi moves forward on her pledges to harden Japan’s defense against China
https://t.co/R8kpHBpj7y

[Jeremy Chan @JChanalytics]

Turning Japanese

[Jeremy Chan @JChanalytics]

#Japan has reduced its dependence on Chinese rare earths to around 60%, down from nearly 90% in 2010.

[Eurasia Group @EurasiaGroup]

If there is a convincing victory for Japanese PM Takaichi in snap elections, our expert @Jchanalytics says it would signal to Beijing that she is here to stay and China’s suite of coercive tactics are not going to succeed in driving her from office.

https://t.co/kzvPf3eGcW

[Jeremy Chan @JChanalytics]

It turns out being friendly to #China is... politically popular in #SouthKorea? Lee's approval rating is at a two-month high following his trip to Beijing/Shanghai last week.

[Eurasia Group @EurasiaGroup]

“Beijing is clearly trying to drive a wedge between Korea and Japan,” says our expert @Jchanalytics.

China is hoping to leverage President Lee’s “desire to restore ‘balance’ to Korea’s foreign policy with his party’s longstanding anti-Japan streak.”

https://t.co/Asyv75EPIY