Zep

“While differing widely in the various little bits we know, in our infinite ignorance we are all equal.”

[Zep @JHX73307308]

@Chris62771610 你是弱质吗

[Zep @JHX73307308]

@tradergoku 所以肯定会 backstop

[Zep @JHX73307308]

rip

[Jim Cramer @jimcramer]

Maybe we clean out this blown up hedge fund and start fresh on Monday..

[Zep @JHX73307308]

@yuyy614893671 而且你这图里你看不到cfo fcf都是106b左右么😂不知道你是咋想的 还市值现金流都是1000多亿美金 你这豆包级别吧

[Zep @JHX73307308]

7万粉简中金融博主不看单位，pdd 现金流1000亿美金都来了🤣

[Zep @JHX73307308]

国美苏宁n年前也有所谓的品牌心智 规模经济，试图对抗电商和快递的洪流，被效率打败，就像目前传统广告电商站在ai时代的对立面一样，妄图在信息处理分发匹配的技术发生变化后继续利用消费者的不理性和信息不完全收取超额经济租的长周期看都会归零

[北美王路飞 @kingluffywang]

李录学习他的老师芒格，翻倍加仓啊

可惜芒格晚年被BABA给整不会了，200多建仓，到100多double down，最后BABA最低跌到70

老爷子离世的时候这笔交易都没有翻过来

中概股最大的风险就是VIE结构以及中美两国政府的政策

可以说是整个美股市场最惨的板块，中国出政策爆锤中概，美国出政策也是爆锤中概

曾经的小甜甜，现在的牛夫人，什么时候变成小甜甜其实需要一段时间

20-22年那波中概熊市，连华尔街的知名投行都有分析师出来说，中概没有投资价值，那是著名的大底

我觉得中概适合玩波段，不适合长持，逢低买入，新闻利好觉得自己又行了的时候赶紧减仓

我今年玩BABA，90多建仓，冲到120就全跑了，很快估计又要跌回这个区间了

[Zep @JHX73307308]

@yuyy614893671 美元和人民币单位搞错了吧哥们

[东东弗斯 (hype/瘋人院長)^👺 @dongdongRobin]

i saw "options" and i was going to say huge, then i realised it's just hip-4

[Zep @JHX73307308]

we are going to be robinhooded

[Just Another Pod Guy @TMTLongShort]

If you own crypto I suspect you’re about to endure a shit-ton of FUD as the labs release cryptography breakthroughs at a record pace over the next few months.

They’ve obviously already made these breakthroughs internally and are first advising the relevant authorities as evidenced by the conspicuous avoidance of the topic in any of the recent math releases.

[Zep @JHX73307308]

@masayoshisson for the first time I’m earlier then them🤣

[Ross Hendricks @Ross__Hendricks]

Why is the overall market so fixated on $CRWV's imminent demise?

At the peak of the Dot Com bubble, $CSCO - the largest company in the world, and the $NVDA equivalent of the era - generated about 10% of its revenue from circular deals through vendor-financed startups.

When those startups lost access to capital, $CSCO's revenue growth went from +66% to -30% within a few quarters, and the stock lost 80% of its value. The same story played out across the dot com supply chain, sending the Nasdaq down 80%.

Today, $CRWV alone makes up roughly 8% of
$NVDA GPU sales. Losing that demand is enough to nuke $NVDA's growth story all by itself.

Oh, and $CRWV isn't an isolated example - every major neocloud is hemmoraghing cash and borrowing costs are going UP across the board.

If you lose the neoclouds, you lose the incremental growth driver for marginal data center capacity, and the AI capex trade goes up in smoke.

That's why we're seeing carnage across the entire AI supply chain, from $CAT and $GEV to $MU, $AVGO and more recently $NVDA.

This is what the beginning of the end of a debt-fueled, circular-financed capex bubble looks like.

[Zep @JHX73307308]

@VeronicaPump 估值用管理层和流通的算，不算还没发出来的token（fdv），估值和coinbase一样，一直拿份额成���空间大得多，这不能买其他币不都是骗子公司么，协议的价值补货和协议到token的传导完全比不过

[youfeng @benshanyoufeng]

@_FORAB 我猜两边都是礼貌优先，又都没有“谁先挂电话”的规则，于是一直互相道别。以太网早年也碰到过这种对称：两台机器同时发、同时退让、再同时重发，后来是让每台随机多等一会儿才解开。我觉得两个 AI 对接，缺的就是这么个打破对称的小规则。

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

Core CPI m/m in:

July: +0.215%
August: +0.290%
September: +0.335%

[Masa’s Son @masayoshisson]

these $META shenanigans bc of muse/ personal AI assistants are getting out of hand, so thought helpful to ground this discussion in some first principles thinking

way way too aggressive of a forecast, but let's entertain the following for the sake of the argument

2030, global

-> ecom $5tn x 30% agent share x 3% take rate = $45bn rev pool
-> 4bn users x 10% paying x $20/m = $96bn rev pool
-> total ~$140bn

this will be a market with perfect competition and extremely low switching costs (and massively depend on cooperation from large merchants like $AMZN, but let's also ignore that for a moment). I assume 5+ players

-> $GOOG, $SPCX, at least one of OAI and Anthropic (if they don't go bankrupt)
-> $AAPL offering for free and private, run locally on hardware (which is also the biggest bear case, but let's ignore that as well)
-> tbh only maybe $META bc people don't really trust them today (and I don't see how they'd change that)
-> global/ regional third party providers/ protocols like instinct/ openclaw (at the end of the day if you believe in AI, this is just a compilation of scripts and maybe memory architecture ie there's really no MOAT here)

so let's divide the pool by 5 to be generous = that's ~$30bn rev by 2030 in the blue sky bull case

for reference, consensus 2030 rev for $META is $470bn (agents cannibalize their own ad spend, which is why I haven't added ad rev on top) and consensus 27 CAPEX alone is $200bn

the math ain't mathing

[KASM @KASM_Capital]

Was biking down Embarcadero in SF today and ran it o this guy. Not sure who he is but he told me to buy the dip

[Masa’s Son @masayoshisson]

we enter the part of the cycle where AI nukes and tech HFs will be too slow to derisk their book and too full of themselves to pivot into crypto

(and yes, they’ll also be too slow to short AI bc “wen AGI bro”)

the californication of tech public market investing won’t end well

[Zep @JHX73307308]

@nft_hu 完蛋了

[Zep @JHX73307308]

order whatever the fuck we want

[Mark Zuckerberg @finkd]

Muse ordered me 🍉 how thoughtful!