Jeff Loesser

Christian, Husband, Surfer, & Financial Advisor @ EPG. trades are opinion not advice

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US semiconductor ETFs, $SMH, and $SOXX, attracted +$4.7 billion in inflows last week, the largest combined weekly inflow on record.

This exceeds the previous weekly record by ~$1.8 billion, or ~62%.

Furthermore, half of the most-traded ETFs in early June were related to semiconductor stocks.

As a result, the semiconductor index, $SOX, is up +90% year-to-date, massively outperforming other sectors.

The rally in semiconductors is unlike anything ever seen before.

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

U.S. inflation expectations are collapsing

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

“Just holding the QQQ index over the last 10 years would have generated a 22% IRR

You would have outperformed almost every venture capital and private equity fund that exists simply by owning an index and doing nothing beyond that.” - @BoringBiz_

Insane returns for index.

[Jeff Loesser @JLoesser]

@runDisAlerts seems like technical difficulties. been in the waiting room since before 9:30am

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

The last 10-days have been unlike any 10-day period in the market since 1950.

First, the S&P 500 is up 9.8% in 10-days, which is in the 99.7th percentile of all 10 day returns.

[Todd Jones 🦊 @toddrjones]

Here are some ways in which the world has gotten better.

[Matthew Kobach @mkobach]

With two young boys at home, I try to imagine this every few months

[Jeff Loesser @JLoesser]

@elonmusk I think there is a physical and spiritual world simultaneously in our midst. We see one. There is more. Maybe that’s the thing

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

“Siri, show me how unprecedented the oil price spike is…”

(H/t @MenthorQpro)

[Jeff Loesser @JLoesser]

Bought $owl and shorted $uso today.

[Trent Grzegorczyk @grzczyk]

January 1st, 2000. Two people retire on the same day with $1 million each.

Same withdrawals — about $50,000 a year, increasing with inflation.

One put everything in the S&P 500. The other used a balanced portfolio across multiple asset classes.

By 2016, the all-stock portfolio was empty. Sixteen years into a 30-year retirement.

The balanced portfolio? Worth $1.9 million today — nearly double the starting balance — after withdrawing almost $1.8 million total.

Same number. Same spending. Same retirement date. The only difference was how the portfolio was built.

This is the sequence of returns risk. And it raises a question most retirees never ask: if the market dropped 30% in your first year of retirement, do you know what your portfolio would look like after that drop plus a full year of withdrawals?

Not a rough guess — the actual number?

Because averages don't protect you. The all-stock retiree had strong long-term average returns. They still went broke.

New video walks through exactly what happened and the questions you should be able to answer before you retire.

[Jeff Loesser @JLoesser]

@Matt_Pinner Would do it for 30 years

[Eric Jackson @ericjackson]

KKR insider buying: $35.4M across 4 buyers while the stock is -41% from its 52-week high.

Conviction score: 100/100. You don't deploy $35M of personal capital on hope. That's a structural signal.

[Eric Jackson @ericjackson]

8 months ago, I said $OPEN could go to $82 by 2028.

I now think I may have been too conservative.

Not because the housing market got easier.
Because the operator changed.

Kaz took over in September.

Since then, Opendoor's weekly acquisitions have gone from roughly 131 homes/week to 442/week — you can track it yourself at https://t.co/URZ97CenJs.

That's 3.4x in 5 months.

And this is happening before the seasonal peak.

That's the first thing.

The second thing is headcount.

Opendoor is down roughly 40% from prior levels. If Kaz gets anywhere close to the kind of lean operating model Keith Rabois has talked about, Wall Street is nowhere near modeling the operating leverage.

The third thing is the mortgage.

This is the part people still don't get.

At Carvana, the car was never the whole business.
The financial products were.

Same idea here.

The home is the distribution channel.
Mortgage, title, insurance, and the closing stack are where this gets much bigger.

That's why the new 4.99% mortgage beta matters.

The skeptics will say iBuying loses money, a subsidized mortgage will lose money, and a faster pace just means they go bankrupt sooner.

Kaz heard the same thing at Shopify when he built Shop Pay Installments from zero to one of the largest installment products on the internet in a year. He tweeted last week that he remembers "all the people who were very confident it could not be done."

The old debate was whether iBuying works.

The better question now is whether Opendoor is quietly becoming a housing-fintech platform.

That's a very different multiple.

My original $82 target used Bloomberg's FY2028 revenue consensus. Wall Street currently has $4.2B for FY2026. The acquisition pace implies nearly double that.

If the pace is real, and if Kaz's Shopify playbook translates faster than expected, that timeline may be pulling forward.

That's what I'm watching now.

[Jeff Loesser @JLoesser]

@andyantiles_ Where are we buying 100k homes cash flowing 15%?

[Qualtrim @qualtrim]

Robinhood appears to be disconnected from it's fundamentals.

Price to sales ratio: 15.6x
Revenue: $4.47 billion

The chart says it all.

$HOOD

[J.C. Parets @JC_ParetsX]

That’s two straight weeks buyers have stepped up to defend Bitcoin above former 2021 and 2024 resistance.

[Justin Banks @RealJGBanks]

$HOOD EARNINGS SELL IS A GIFT

Since 2017:

Platform assets: $5B → $324B
Revenue: $49M → $4.4B
Adj. EBITDA: -$74M → $2.5B
Expenses up only 20% YoY.

And people are worried about a short-term dip?

Zoom out.

[Jeff Loesser @JLoesser]

@midascabal x5 today lol

[Jeff Loesser @JLoesser]

@saxena_puru This is painful but when you have to
Accumulate