Mitch Douglas

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

Damn, might've top ticked it with this post😂

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

AMD: This feels "early" given the follow thru rally this week in Tech complex and there is absolutely a shorter term bull case scenario where we tested & held the 200DMA at $420 and are off to make new ATH...BUT if you think this whole AI trade is a Wyckoff distribution with more downside to come before putting in a durable bottom then the bear case is this: we backfill gap at $566 (blue arrow) and proceed to make a new low targeting the rectangle box gapfill zone down to $365 ish. Am going to use PUT debit spreads to limit $ invested and add flexibility since this could go either way still. Dec - April timeframe.

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

That MU pattern played out well. Still feels like the durable bottom isn't in yet, TBC...

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

Was considering a long on #MU as it bounced around the short term MAs but noticed this island reversal over last few weeks & looming open gap around $870 support & decided to wait and see...

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

Update 2 months later: if this memory complex/KOSPI retracement continues to the existing neckline as others are pointing out, that 12% drop would align nicely with this gapfill on MU.

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

@FentanylSucks @iBladesi just my opinion and could be wrong but at these various levels every $ not paid to the pref flows to the common in a transaction creating a more antagonistic relationship: my read is a barbell structure of long common & baby bonds while avoiding the prefs makes most sense now.

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

been diggin in on this: think issue is the common is so low now & the CoC conversion rate 1.33x post 2022 split, that these pref really aren't fully covered anymore (same going on w/CIM). Even if MFA was taken over at BV only gives like $15 to the prefs & I think the market is starting to sniff this out...

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

@MichaelPBento ok added some 11/20 SPY730P here at $755 net debit $1.50 in case PPI is hot tomorrow but otherwise feels like $765 is the next big resistance level calling...

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

@Rich_Cooper Amen, Rich. 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 shd be solving our own domestic problems.

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

@MichaelPBento This has 2018 vibes to me for a red xmas

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

@SmedleyButlerUS Do u think we retest lows or make a higher low or just this is the floor now? Guess it depends on CPI but future reads seem totally binary on oil: escalation is oil/yields up and peace is both down

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

@VladTheInflator Iran is like FoxNews boomers Covid, cannot accept they were 💯 wrong

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

@wayofftheres Lol what the Spanish motherland, its convenient how “mexicans” forget they were colonized

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

@ZoomerHistorian Crashing funerals?! Whatever else, "Chaz" Ealy here is a real innovator...

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

@Oilfield_Rando Omg that decline in just 40yrs wow

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

@MichaelPBento and still feels like we need to test that 730 level during market hours still too

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

@SmedleyButlerUS General sir, you of all people should know its just another "racket".

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

@zerohedge so Foids n' Foreigners have taken 99% of jobs since inauguration lol cannot believe young men didn't turn out to support GOP!

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

@zerohedge @hkuppy I think that’s the CEOs of BXSL, ARCC & OBDC prepping to go on CNBC

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

@MichaelPBento Damn, I closed out my VIX longs end of day too - didn't wanna carry into Friday vol crush.

[Mitch Douglas @JMitchDouglas]

@MichaelPBento that's @TraderJonesy lol ; )