SmedleyButlerUSMC

Pro-Rome Anti-Carthage

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

The yield curve is unpredictable

But the very long term moving average of the yield curve is nearly a perfect deterministic mathematical function

Its first derivative is screaming "time for un-inversion"

You might want to start paying attention

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

@FibonacciInves1 @adamtaggart Yep. Simple math most people don't seem able to do

70–90% of active managers underperform a broad index like the S&P 500 in a given year

For the vast majority of investors there is no benefit to anything beyond passive indexing so relatively, most advisors are a negative ROI

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

Unemployment deviation from averages ribbon

Tops in rates tend to be above the red line, while bottoms in rates tend to occur beneath it

Lags tend to be more pronounced in inflationary environments like the 1970's, with the ribbon leading rates

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

@OmerNavePhoto My opinion

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

Step #4

Exactly the same every time

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

#Bitcoin deviation from 200 Week SMA

Average decline from the red 12 year long trend line will put Bitcoin at $27k*

*I took some liberties with this calculation, if you want the details just ask

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

@grant_wahl32728 Yep

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

Semiconductors/bonds

RSI is now identical to 2000 Dot Com crash rates peak

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

@VandelayIndCEO The OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs aren't likely to happen until later in the year. Maybe this one has some room to run first.

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

Don't get washed out of your trades because of short timeframe stochastic fluctuations.

Long duration bond market signals are almost exclusively found on long timeframes. Small timeframe moves are mostly noise.

Signal >>> Noise
Long Timeframes >>> Short
Smoothed Data >>> Raw

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

@VandelayIndCEO Did you see this?

[Edward Dowd @DowdEdward]

Pimco’s Chief Investment Officer says a credit default cycle has begun.

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

Note that the price never rose above the upper Bollinger band this cycle as in previous cycles

That could be another indication of a midcycle top or 2 part market cycle (one cycle stretched over 2 normal cycle periods)

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

One of the most accurate Bitcoin bottom indicators I've found, which predicted FTX crash

This shows the percent above close 2.3 standard deviations above the average value is (% above close the upper Bollinger band is)

Current level is where final capitulations begin not end

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

uninverted TLT/SPX (red line) with recessions

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

TLT/SPX versus Rates

Green line = US 10 year
RSI = TLT/SPX

It doesn't get any more straightforward, simple, or clear cut than this.

Long $TLT ↗️↗️↗️

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

@Boyddog7 @hotpotato3141 I try not to focus on the reasons, which might sound strange. I assume the historical data set, if long enough, contains billions of independent variables and 100% of the dep. By focusing on that, I don't get distracted by narratives with some but not not total explanatory power.

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

Tax Receipts versus Rates

What do you think happens next, if history is any guide?

Credit for this => @hotpotato3141

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

@Boyddog7 @hotpotato3141 There are two other periods where rates remained higher for longer, relative to the rest of the 100 year period studied here: the Volcker Peak in the early 1980s and the 2007/8 Great Financial Crisis.

My current theory is that this could indicate peaks with greater momentum.

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

@hotpotato3141 This is what I came up with: I used your series and compared it to rates using your script

This is a really nice find. If you don't mind, I'll post it to my account giving you the credit

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

More interesting support for the idea of a midcycle top

The green line is the only metric I've seen that has called all tops back to the 2011 cycle - it's the deviation of #Bitcoin's average value from its R^2 = 0.99 power regression line (pink line)

Everything in this chart

[SmedleyButlerUSMC @SmedleyButlerUS]

@hotpotato3141 Looks to me like you used close and 5 as the input values and got a great result. Since we are in the business of empirically finding patterns, I think it's valid and useful. Let me play around with this data set and see what I personally would do with it & get back to you