JB

[JB @Boyddog7]

Theory of the day

[JB @Boyddog7]

@IOHK_Charles This is all to say it’s not a crypto problem it’s a monetary problem. If you restrict the tokenomics to only grow with the network/utilization and no higher, then success is transparent and the holder mentality shifts, crypto solves problems but not the one that plagues itself

[JB @Boyddog7]

@IOHK_Charles The issue is the model of the network, got in bed with exchanges & VCs and are surprised it’s all about the money, if instead the token could be pegged to the utility and actual use for price and not this “free market” discovery bullshit then crypto could start low but trend high

[JB @Boyddog7]

@leadlagreport Bitcoin the Japanese bailout

[JB @Boyddog7]

@SmedleyButlerUS @hotpotato3141 lots of the charts seem to say rates should have dropped during the banking crisis in 2022/2023? Any thoughts?

I imaging the FED REPO papered over and gov't spending / war inflation is the only thing holding us up with chips

[JB @Boyddog7]

@yieldsearcher I'm pretty sure this admin is going to nuke it as low as possible so they can credit the rise. Pretty much the repeat of semiconductors. While those crash and the hardware becomes abundant and cheap it will be the fuel for miners once again IMO

[JB @Boyddog7]

@FroehlichThors1 It’s exactly why we are draining our SPR. Sell high buy low, they know they can’t stop demand destruction so we they used narrative to drive demand and price until they can’t and refill SPR at lows just like they wanted to do during Covid

[JB @Boyddog7]

@SmedleyButlerUS I assume we’re entering a inflationary/deflationary crisis. Real needs (gas, grocery, etc) rise. But housing (usually looked as equity or net value) and luxury and non essentials fall off a cliff.

Depending on how we weight reading measurement of inflation may fall on surface

[JB @Boyddog7]

@Julius10x my thought is just like all the other SaaS being sold off is, this is a liquidity crunch masked by AI so they can sell the winner and buy these same companies at the lows for the exact reason you specified. SaaS is going to be whittled down to small team running billions

[JB @Boyddog7]

@unusual_whales I think this IPO is gonna be used to mask the downturn justl ike NVIDIA as they need a new show pony with Anthropic and Open AI.

Until Iran gets sorted (I think a deal is unlikely) as the goal is cheap oil exports to Europe & Japan so they can continue to fund our U.S. Debt

[JB @Boyddog7]

@fatdog5150 @staunovo Either manipulation or forward looking the upcoming demand destruction to be so great that record draws can't even sustain current price. There's a large incentive to dump the SPR at relative high prices and buy back low which was exactly what they had wanted to do during COVID.

[JB @Boyddog7]

@leadlagreport Unpopular opinion: there draining SPR just to keep oil high for eve just the small chance of maintaining any inflation expectation instead of the upcoming depression

[JB @Boyddog7]

setup looks very similar as of today, NFA

1. Today
2. 2007
3. Due to technology, I expect timeline compression so 08 would be sooner

[JB @Boyddog7]

not to be the doom guy, but 008 vibes, looks like AI/Chips are masking the downturn, ballpark idea, but timing idk

1. Consumer Bellweather's decline (ex. WHR, HD, MCD, etc.)
2. Parallel 2008 to our 2026 Decline
3. Decline to continue, bonds up
4. A 2-3 year recovery process

[JB @Boyddog7]

My thought is, history likes to repeat but humans adapt, this may be a fools attempt to control the decline and hold up market & 401ks and mask over in any way possible until underline stabilizes, but bond markets will hold governments accountable and make more painful in the end

[JB @Boyddog7]

@leadlagreport It's for sure coordinate (Warsh, Iran, Japan, etc.), I just don't know how they're going to manipulate to save face by July 4th when the last choice is stocks or bonds

[JB @Boyddog7]

@ANDYTHO11895926 @leadlagreport Since treasuries operate on a schedule, I imagine there can be a period of low issuance (or lower than normal period) compared to the short spike in demand (Equity crash) dropping yields. This doesn't mean yields wont spike or the problem is fixed but IMO yields can drop

[JB @Boyddog7]

@unusual_whales Is it possible its being exported because we are selling every available drop at current prices before they crater into a depression? Its the only reason I would understand to export the US SPR

[JB @Boyddog7]

@SmedleyButlerUS Exactly! We have the petrol dollars system; this is only going to provide cover to maintain the dollar relative strength to drop bond yields without destroying the currencies status.

[JB @Boyddog7]

@heresyfinancial Is it wrong to assume government will divert all capital to ensuring yields go down and stay down, that capital which has been going to support markets will not be there and will churn down

[JB @Boyddog7]

@SmedleyButlerUS all the capex commitment is really going to drive the decrease in jobs and ability to expand the tech sector further from current levels. the red line in relation to the blue is apparent with consumer sentiment

[JB @Boyddog7]

@SmedleyButlerUS Made a fun chart as we repeat 2000, particularly the consumer vs tech weightings, I give it 3 months