Obidients, look at the full picture. This Global LeadHaus graphic is not just “good news for Obi.” It is a loud warning siren.
Raw support says Peter Obi is far ahead:
Peter Obi: 67% — about 2,307,150 respondents
Tinubu: 23% — about 792,350 respondents
Atiku: 6% — about 206,700 respondents
Others: 4% — about 137,800 respondents
On popularity alone, Obi is eating the field alive. Tinubu is far behind. Atiku is distant. Amaechi, Makinde, Sowore and the rest are barely breathing in the numbers.
But elections are not won by popularity inside a survey. Elections are won by people with PVCs.
That is where the danger starts.
Only 18% of Obi’s supporters in the sample had PVC, giving him about 415,287 PVC-ready supporters.
Tinubu, with only 23% raw support, had 79.6% PVC ownership, giving him about 630,311 PVC-ready supporters.
Atiku, despite just 6% raw support, had 72.6% PVC ownership, giving him about 150,064 PVC-ready supporters.
Others had 46% PVC ownership, giving them about 63,388 PVC-ready supporters.
So the real PVC-ready race in this dataset becomes:
Tinubu: 630,311
Peter Obi: 415,287
Atiku: 150,064
Others: 63,388
That means Obi can be massively popular and still be electorally exposed. Tinubu can be less popular and still be better positioned because his voters are ready to vote. Atiku’s base may be smaller, but it is also more PVC-prepared than Obi’s by percentage.
This is the message:
Obi is winning preference. Tinubu is winning voter readiness. Atiku’s smaller camp is also more PVC-ready. The smaller candidates are not the threat. The PVC gap is the threat.
No more comfort in crowd size. No more social media chest-beating. No more “we are many” without proof of registration.
The assignment is simple: convert sympathy into PVCs, convert noise into ward-level structure, convert support into actual voters.
Because on election day, INEC will not count passion. INEC will count accredited voters.
No PVC, no power.
ONLY 42 WORKING DAYS LEFT TO INEC FINAL PVC DEADLINE!!!
cc: @PeterObi@KwankwasoRM@1MMCSpace@EmirSirdam@ruffydfire@firstladyship@RealQueenBee__@Peter4Nigeria@AishaYesufu@EstherUmoh10@NaijaPrez@Sports_Doctor2@UnkleAyo@ifesalakooffice@tudobams@DrOaikhena@iamHSDickson@NigeriaNDCHQ@n6oflife6
@peculiarchichii Did you just ask "how do I even start forgiving myself for believing the lie"?? No, baby girl. This IS NOT on you. Don't you dare blame yourself. This is on your evil mother!
@DCinfoscaling This has just given me another reason to keep going. I've been trying my hands on this for sometime now. I haven't succeeded yet and I must admit, it's quite frustrating. I won't give up just yet. I'm gonna keep trying.