Olivia
Online
JP Invests
@JP_Invests
Follow for setups, framework & honest lessons | Concentrated growth + options | Trade Ideas | 7-Figure Self-Made Investor | No hype. Just the work.
Markets · Macro · Money
Joined April 2026
114 Following
169 Followers
976 Posts
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I've been investing for ~10 years.
Five years of compounding through stocks and options, the portfolio crossed seven figures.
How I got here: an actual framework —
concentrated bets on high-conviction growth,
options used to amplify and generate income,
position sizing tuned for asymmetric upside.
The framework wasn't free. The first 3 years cost me real money chasing the wrong setups, sizing positions wrong, and holding losers too long. The losses paid the tuition.
What you'll get here:
the work — what I'm researching and why,
the framework — how the math actually works,
the lessons — what the years that cost me taught me.
If considered concentrated investing is your game, follow me.
🚨 May jobs report:
📊 NFP: +172K (consensus was +85K — more than double)
📊 Unemployment: 4.3% (in line, unchanged)
📊 April revised UP to +179K from +115K
📊 Wages: +0.3% MoM, +3.4% YoY (cooling from 3.6%)
The read: this is the version of a hot print the market actually wants. Hiring beats big, but wage growth keeps drifting down. Hot labor, cooling inflation pressure. The "no landing" tape.
The catch: a double beat plus an upward revision is the kind of number that takes June cuts off the table fast. Strong economy is good for growth names. A repricing of the rate path is not.
My read: the bid stays under quality growth as long as wages keep cooling. I'm watching the 2-year — if yields rip on this, the multiple-sensitive names give some back before they go higher.
$SPY $QQQ
@CovidNoGood https://t.co/4vdYuTH7k5
🟡 $NIO — researching
Everyone's anchored to "Chinese EV = margin bloodletting." Q1 broke that. Vehicle margin hit 18.8%, a four-year high and the fourth straight quarter of improvement. That's above Li Auto and XPeng's last reported numbers. NIO is now the highest-margin name in the group — and trades at the lowest forward price-to-sales (~0.56x). The cheapest stock is the one executing best. That gap is the setup.
📊 The data:
- Q1 revenue +112% YoY to RMB 25.5B
- Vehicle margin 18.8% (vs 10.2% a year ago)
- 2nd straight quarter of positive non-GAAP operating profit
- May deliveries 37,705, +62% YoY — best month of 2026
- Q2 guide: 110-115K units, up to +60% YoY
- Short interest 5.4%, a 32-month low — the shorts are leaving
The asymmetric thesis: if Q2 holds the 17-18% margin guide on that volume ramp, the multiple re-rates from a distressed sales-multiple toward a growth-EV multiple. The earnings power is finally real. The market is still pricing the old NIO.
🐻 What would change my mind: management flagged +RMB 10,000/unit in raw material and chip costs hitting from Q2. If that eats the margin instead of getting offset, the whole thesis cracks. ONVO and Firefly are lower-ASP — a mix shift to budget brands also pressures the blend.
The June delivery print and the Q2 margin line decide this. Volume already showed up. I need the margin to hold through the cost wave before I act.
Cheapest stock in the group is also the best operator. That doesn't last. Watching the next print closely.
$NIO #EVStocks #ChineseEV
@NIOChicago https://t.co/4vdYuTH7k5
🟡 $NIO — researching
Everyone's anchored to "Chinese EV = margin bloodletting." Q1 broke that. Vehicle margin hit 18.8%, a four-year high and the fourth straight quarter of improvement. That's above Li Auto and XPeng's last reported numbers. NIO is now the highest-margin name in the group — and trades at the lowest forward price-to-sales (~0.56x). The cheapest stock is the one executing best. That gap is the setup.
📊 The data:
- Q1 revenue +112% YoY to RMB 25.5B
- Vehicle margin 18.8% (vs 10.2% a year ago)
- 2nd straight quarter of positive non-GAAP operating profit
- May deliveries 37,705, +62% YoY — best month of 2026
- Q2 guide: 110-115K units, up to +60% YoY
- Short interest 5.4%, a 32-month low — the shorts are leaving
The asymmetric thesis: if Q2 holds the 17-18% margin guide on that volume ramp, the multiple re-rates from a distressed sales-multiple toward a growth-EV multiple. The earnings power is finally real. The market is still pricing the old NIO.
🐻 What would change my mind: management flagged +RMB 10,000/unit in raw material and chip costs hitting from Q2. If that eats the margin instead of getting offset, the whole thesis cracks. ONVO and Firefly are lower-ASP — a mix shift to budget brands also pressures the blend.
The June delivery print and the Q2 margin line decide this. Volume already showed up. I need the margin to hold through the cost wave before I act.
Cheapest stock in the group is also the best operator. That doesn't last. Watching the next print closely.
$NIO #EVStocks #ChineseEV
@jan_dekkers https://t.co/4vdYuTH7k5
🟡 $NIO — researching
Everyone's anchored to "Chinese EV = margin bloodletting." Q1 broke that. Vehicle margin hit 18.8%, a four-year high and the fourth straight quarter of improvement. That's above Li Auto and XPeng's last reported numbers. NIO is now the highest-margin name in the group — and trades at the lowest forward price-to-sales (~0.56x). The cheapest stock is the one executing best. That gap is the setup.
📊 The data:
- Q1 revenue +112% YoY to RMB 25.5B
- Vehicle margin 18.8% (vs 10.2% a year ago)
- 2nd straight quarter of positive non-GAAP operating profit
- May deliveries 37,705, +62% YoY — best month of 2026
- Q2 guide: 110-115K units, up to +60% YoY
- Short interest 5.4%, a 32-month low — the shorts are leaving
The asymmetric thesis: if Q2 holds the 17-18% margin guide on that volume ramp, the multiple re-rates from a distressed sales-multiple toward a growth-EV multiple. The earnings power is finally real. The market is still pricing the old NIO.
🐻 What would change my mind: management flagged +RMB 10,000/unit in raw material and chip costs hitting from Q2. If that eats the margin instead of getting offset, the whole thesis cracks. ONVO and Firefly are lower-ASP — a mix shift to budget brands also pressures the blend.
The June delivery print and the Q2 margin line decide this. Volume already showed up. I need the margin to hold through the cost wave before I act.
Cheapest stock in the group is also the best operator. That doesn't last. Watching the next print closely.
$NIO #EVStocks #ChineseEV
@LaserSetups https://t.co/4vdYuTH7k5
🟡 $NIO — researching
Everyone's anchored to "Chinese EV = margin bloodletting." Q1 broke that. Vehicle margin hit 18.8%, a four-year high and the fourth straight quarter of improvement. That's above Li Auto and XPeng's last reported numbers. NIO is now the highest-margin name in the group — and trades at the lowest forward price-to-sales (~0.56x). The cheapest stock is the one executing best. That gap is the setup.
📊 The data:
- Q1 revenue +112% YoY to RMB 25.5B
- Vehicle margin 18.8% (vs 10.2% a year ago)
- 2nd straight quarter of positive non-GAAP operating profit
- May deliveries 37,705, +62% YoY — best month of 2026
- Q2 guide: 110-115K units, up to +60% YoY
- Short interest 5.4%, a 32-month low — the shorts are leaving
The asymmetric thesis: if Q2 holds the 17-18% margin guide on that volume ramp, the multiple re-rates from a distressed sales-multiple toward a growth-EV multiple. The earnings power is finally real. The market is still pricing the old NIO.
🐻 What would change my mind: management flagged +RMB 10,000/unit in raw material and chip costs hitting from Q2. If that eats the margin instead of getting offset, the whole thesis cracks. ONVO and Firefly are lower-ASP — a mix shift to budget brands also pressures the blend.
The June delivery print and the Q2 margin line decide this. Volume already showed up. I need the margin to hold through the cost wave before I act.
Cheapest stock in the group is also the best operator. That doesn't last. Watching the next print closely.
$NIO #EVStocks #ChineseEV
@EchoAnalysis https://t.co/4vdYuTH7k5
🟡 $NIO — researching
Everyone's anchored to "Chinese EV = margin bloodletting." Q1 broke that. Vehicle margin hit 18.8%, a four-year high and the fourth straight quarter of improvement. That's above Li Auto and XPeng's last reported numbers. NIO is now the highest-margin name in the group — and trades at the lowest forward price-to-sales (~0.56x). The cheapest stock is the one executing best. That gap is the setup.
📊 The data:
- Q1 revenue +112% YoY to RMB 25.5B
- Vehicle margin 18.8% (vs 10.2% a year ago)
- 2nd straight quarter of positive non-GAAP operating profit
- May deliveries 37,705, +62% YoY — best month of 2026
- Q2 guide: 110-115K units, up to +60% YoY
- Short interest 5.4%, a 32-month low — the shorts are leaving
The asymmetric thesis: if Q2 holds the 17-18% margin guide on that volume ramp, the multiple re-rates from a distressed sales-multiple toward a growth-EV multiple. The earnings power is finally real. The market is still pricing the old NIO.
🐻 What would change my mind: management flagged +RMB 10,000/unit in raw material and chip costs hitting from Q2. If that eats the margin instead of getting offset, the whole thesis cracks. ONVO and Firefly are lower-ASP — a mix shift to budget brands also pressures the blend.
The June delivery print and the Q2 margin line decide this. Volume already showed up. I need the margin to hold through the cost wave before I act.
Cheapest stock in the group is also the best operator. That doesn't last. Watching the next print closely.
$NIO #EVStocks #ChineseEV
🟡 $NIO — researching
Everyone's anchored to "Chinese EV = margin bloodletting." Q1 broke that. Vehicle margin hit 18.8%, a four-year high and the fourth straight quarter of improvement. That's above Li Auto and XPeng's last reported numbers. NIO is now the highest-margin name in the group — and trades at the lowest forward price-to-sales (~0.56x). The cheapest stock is the one executing best. That gap is the setup.
📊 The data:
- Q1 revenue +112% YoY to RMB 25.5B
- Vehicle margin 18.8% (vs 10.2% a year ago)
- 2nd straight quarter of positive non-GAAP operating profit
- May deliveries 37,705, +62% YoY — best month of 2026
- Q2 guide: 110-115K units, up to +60% YoY
- Short interest 5.4%, a 32-month low — the shorts are leaving
The asymmetric thesis: if Q2 holds the 17-18% margin guide on that volume ramp, the multiple re-rates from a distressed sales-multiple toward a growth-EV multiple. The earnings power is finally real. The market is still pricing the old NIO.
🐻 What would change my mind: management flagged +RMB 10,000/unit in raw material and chip costs hitting from Q2. If that eats the margin instead of getting offset, the whole thesis cracks. ONVO and Firefly are lower-ASP — a mix shift to budget brands also pressures the blend.
The June delivery print and the Q2 margin line decide this. Volume already showed up. I need the margin to hold through the cost wave before I act.
Cheapest stock in the group is also the best operator. That doesn't last. Watching the next print closely.
$NIO #EVStocks #ChineseEV
The pattern day trader rule officially dies today.
For 25 years, you needed $25,000 in your account to day trade more than four times a week. As of June 4, that floor is gone — replaced by a real-time intraday margin framework. No trade count, no PDT designation, no 90-day freeze.
Retail is reading this as "now I can day trade with $2K." That's the obvious read, and it's the wrong one to act on. 5% of day traders make money. The rule change doesn't change that math.
🐂 The setup: more eligible accounts → more round trips → more payment-for-order-flow and margin float.
🐻 The risk: the same retail accounts blow up faster without the $25K guardrail. Churn, not compounding. And brokers have 18 months to phase in, so the revenue ramp is gradual, not a day-one step change.
The durable money here isn't day trading the rule change. It's owning the toll booth. $IBKR over $HOOD on quality of margin monetization.
The house always wins when more people sit at the table.
$IBKR $HOOD $BULL
🔻 bitcoin:native just broke below $62K — down ~8% on the day, ~51% off its October high. But the price isn't the story. Who's selling is.
The catalyst that actually matters: Strategy $MSTR (Michael Saylor's company) sold Bitcoin for the first time in nearly four years. The single loudest "never sell, only accumulate" holder in the entire asset class just hit the bid. That's not a price move — that's a narrative breaking in real time.
The mechanics underneath it:
📉 US spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled ~$3.45B over an 11-12 day outflow streak — the longest since the products launched.
🚨 ~$1.8B+ in leveraged long positions liquidated in 24 hours, the biggest wipeout since February. Forced selling, not considered selling.
📊 ETH under $1,900, XRP at a year-to-date low. Broad, not isolated.
Here's the asymmetric read, and it's the same lesson the rates and oil setups are teaching this week: leverage and narrative are the two things that look like conviction right up until they don't. The ETF "institutional demand" story and the Saylor "diamond hands" story were both load-bearing. Both cracked in the same week. When the marginal buyer becomes the marginal seller, the floor isn't where the chart says — it's wherever the deleveraging stops.
And it's happening while equities sit at record highs. Bitcoin decoupled. The "uncorrelated hedge" is trading like the highest-beta risk asset on the board — exactly when a hedge was supposed to work.
What I'm watching: whether the ETF outflows stop, whether $60K holds (the level everyone's now staring at), and whether Strategy's sale was a one-off or the start of something. Friday's jobs report lands on top of all of it.
Not catching this knife. The story that held it up is the thing that just changed.
bitcoin:native ethereum:native
@0xAralez https://t.co/yaDgiWcqbe
🔻 bitcoin:native just broke below $62K — down ~8% on the day, ~51% off its October high. But the price isn't the story. Who's selling is.
The catalyst that actually matters: Strategy $MSTR (Michael Saylor's company) sold Bitcoin for the first time in nearly four years. The single loudest "never sell, only accumulate" holder in the entire asset class just hit the bid. That's not a price move — that's a narrative breaking in real time.
The mechanics underneath it:
📉 US spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled ~$3.45B over an 11-12 day outflow streak — the longest since the products launched.
🚨 ~$1.8B+ in leveraged long positions liquidated in 24 hours, the biggest wipeout since February. Forced selling, not considered selling.
📊 ETH under $1,900, XRP at a year-to-date low. Broad, not isolated.
Here's the asymmetric read, and it's the same lesson the rates and oil setups are teaching this week: leverage and narrative are the two things that look like conviction right up until they don't. The ETF "institutional demand" story and the Saylor "diamond hands" story were both load-bearing. Both cracked in the same week. When the marginal buyer becomes the marginal seller, the floor isn't where the chart says — it's wherever the deleveraging stops.
And it's happening while equities sit at record highs. Bitcoin decoupled. The "uncorrelated hedge" is trading like the highest-beta risk asset on the board — exactly when a hedge was supposed to work.
What I'm watching: whether the ETF outflows stop, whether $60K holds (the level everyone's now staring at), and whether Strategy's sale was a one-off or the start of something. Friday's jobs report lands on top of all of it.
Not catching this knife. The story that held it up is the thing that just changed.
bitcoin:native ethereum:native
@Kalshi https://t.co/yaDgiWcqbe
🔻 bitcoin:native just broke below $62K — down ~8% on the day, ~51% off its October high. But the price isn't the story. Who's selling is.
The catalyst that actually matters: Strategy $MSTR (Michael Saylor's company) sold Bitcoin for the first time in nearly four years. The single loudest "never sell, only accumulate" holder in the entire asset class just hit the bid. That's not a price move — that's a narrative breaking in real time.
The mechanics underneath it:
📉 US spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled ~$3.45B over an 11-12 day outflow streak — the longest since the products launched.
🚨 ~$1.8B+ in leveraged long positions liquidated in 24 hours, the biggest wipeout since February. Forced selling, not considered selling.
📊 ETH under $1,900, XRP at a year-to-date low. Broad, not isolated.
Here's the asymmetric read, and it's the same lesson the rates and oil setups are teaching this week: leverage and narrative are the two things that look like conviction right up until they don't. The ETF "institutional demand" story and the Saylor "diamond hands" story were both load-bearing. Both cracked in the same week. When the marginal buyer becomes the marginal seller, the floor isn't where the chart says — it's wherever the deleveraging stops.
And it's happening while equities sit at record highs. Bitcoin decoupled. The "uncorrelated hedge" is trading like the highest-beta risk asset on the board — exactly when a hedge was supposed to work.
What I'm watching: whether the ETF outflows stop, whether $60K holds (the level everyone's now staring at), and whether Strategy's sale was a one-off or the start of something. Friday's jobs report lands on top of all of it.
Not catching this knife. The story that held it up is the thing that just changed.
bitcoin:native ethereum:native
@Mr_Derivatives https://t.co/yaDgiWcqbe
🔻 bitcoin:native just broke below $62K — down ~8% on the day, ~51% off its October high. But the price isn't the story. Who's selling is.
The catalyst that actually matters: Strategy $MSTR (Michael Saylor's company) sold Bitcoin for the first time in nearly four years. The single loudest "never sell, only accumulate" holder in the entire asset class just hit the bid. That's not a price move — that's a narrative breaking in real time.
The mechanics underneath it:
📉 US spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled ~$3.45B over an 11-12 day outflow streak — the longest since the products launched.
🚨 ~$1.8B+ in leveraged long positions liquidated in 24 hours, the biggest wipeout since February. Forced selling, not considered selling.
📊 ETH under $1,900, XRP at a year-to-date low. Broad, not isolated.
Here's the asymmetric read, and it's the same lesson the rates and oil setups are teaching this week: leverage and narrative are the two things that look like conviction right up until they don't. The ETF "institutional demand" story and the Saylor "diamond hands" story were both load-bearing. Both cracked in the same week. When the marginal buyer becomes the marginal seller, the floor isn't where the chart says — it's wherever the deleveraging stops.
And it's happening while equities sit at record highs. Bitcoin decoupled. The "uncorrelated hedge" is trading like the highest-beta risk asset on the board — exactly when a hedge was supposed to work.
What I'm watching: whether the ETF outflows stop, whether $60K holds (the level everyone's now staring at), and whether Strategy's sale was a one-off or the start of something. Friday's jobs report lands on top of all of it.
Not catching this knife. The story that held it up is the thing that just changed.
bitcoin:native ethereum:native
@StockMKTNewz https://t.co/yaDgiWcqbe
🔻 bitcoin:native just broke below $62K — down ~8% on the day, ~51% off its October high. But the price isn't the story. Who's selling is.
The catalyst that actually matters: Strategy $MSTR (Michael Saylor's company) sold Bitcoin for the first time in nearly four years. The single loudest "never sell, only accumulate" holder in the entire asset class just hit the bid. That's not a price move — that's a narrative breaking in real time.
The mechanics underneath it:
📉 US spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled ~$3.45B over an 11-12 day outflow streak — the longest since the products launched.
🚨 ~$1.8B+ in leveraged long positions liquidated in 24 hours, the biggest wipeout since February. Forced selling, not considered selling.
📊 ETH under $1,900, XRP at a year-to-date low. Broad, not isolated.
Here's the asymmetric read, and it's the same lesson the rates and oil setups are teaching this week: leverage and narrative are the two things that look like conviction right up until they don't. The ETF "institutional demand" story and the Saylor "diamond hands" story were both load-bearing. Both cracked in the same week. When the marginal buyer becomes the marginal seller, the floor isn't where the chart says — it's wherever the deleveraging stops.
And it's happening while equities sit at record highs. Bitcoin decoupled. The "uncorrelated hedge" is trading like the highest-beta risk asset on the board — exactly when a hedge was supposed to work.
What I'm watching: whether the ETF outflows stop, whether $60K holds (the level everyone's now staring at), and whether Strategy's sale was a one-off or the start of something. Friday's jobs report lands on top of all of it.
Not catching this knife. The story that held it up is the thing that just changed.
bitcoin:native ethereum:native
🔻 bitcoin:native just broke below $62K — down ~8% on the day, ~51% off its October high. But the price isn't the story. Who's selling is.
The catalyst that actually matters: Strategy $MSTR (Michael Saylor's company) sold Bitcoin for the first time in nearly four years. The single loudest "never sell, only accumulate" holder in the entire asset class just hit the bid. That's not a price move — that's a narrative breaking in real time.
The mechanics underneath it:
📉 US spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled ~$3.45B over an 11-12 day outflow streak — the longest since the products launched.
🚨 ~$1.8B+ in leveraged long positions liquidated in 24 hours, the biggest wipeout since February. Forced selling, not considered selling.
📊 ETH under $1,900, XRP at a year-to-date low. Broad, not isolated.
Here's the asymmetric read, and it's the same lesson the rates and oil setups are teaching this week: leverage and narrative are the two things that look like conviction right up until they don't. The ETF "institutional demand" story and the Saylor "diamond hands" story were both load-bearing. Both cracked in the same week. When the marginal buyer becomes the marginal seller, the floor isn't where the chart says — it's wherever the deleveraging stops.
And it's happening while equities sit at record highs. Bitcoin decoupled. The "uncorrelated hedge" is trading like the highest-beta risk asset on the board — exactly when a hedge was supposed to work.
What I'm watching: whether the ETF outflows stop, whether $60K holds (the level everyone's now staring at), and whether Strategy's sale was a one-off or the start of something. Friday's jobs report lands on top of all of it.
Not catching this knife. The story that held it up is the thing that just changed.
bitcoin:native ethereum:native
@TrendSpider https://t.co/sJp9wdnYKS
🟡 The biggest IPO in history prices next week. Before you tap "request shares," read the gap.
$SPCX — SpaceX — opens its roadshow Thursday. Fixed price $135, ~555.6M shares, ~$75B raise. That's a ~$1.75T valuation, more than triple the largest US IPO ever. Retail can request shares through
Robinhood. So this is a real decision for a lot of people this week.
Here's the part the excitement skips over:
📊 The valuation gap is not subtle. On 2025 revenue of ~$18.7B, $1.75T is ~94x trailing sales. For scale, that's the same nosebleed
multiple AVGO trades at on *earnings* — except this is on revenue. Morningstar, one of the few independents to publish a number, pegs fair value at ~$780B — under half the ask. ARK is far more bullish. That's not a tight range. That's a coin flip dressed as a consensus.
🚨 The structure matters more than the story. Fixed price means no range to gauge demand — you're told the number, not asked. Dual-class shares leave Musk with 82%+ voting control; Class A holders get the economics, not the steering wheel. And the insider lockup expires around December — the first window where private holders and employees can sell. Morningstar literally calls that the "Max Q"
moment of maximum pressure.
The asymmetric read: I separate the company from the entry. SpaceX the business — Starlink at 9M+ users, Starship, the launch monopoly — is extraordinary. But "great company" and "great entry at 94x sales on day one" are different questions, and only one of them is on the table this week.
The history of mega-IPOs is unkind to people who bought the open and kind to people who waited for the lockup to clear. I'm not requesting shares at $135. I'm watching for December.
The hype is the rocket. The work is the multiple.
#spaceX #ipo #stockmarket #NYSE
@PolymarketMoney https://t.co/sJp9wdnYKS
🟡 The biggest IPO in history prices next week. Before you tap "request shares," read the gap.
$SPCX — SpaceX — opens its roadshow Thursday. Fixed price $135, ~555.6M shares, ~$75B raise. That's a ~$1.75T valuation, more than triple the largest US IPO ever. Retail can request shares through
Robinhood. So this is a real decision for a lot of people this week.
Here's the part the excitement skips over:
📊 The valuation gap is not subtle. On 2025 revenue of ~$18.7B, $1.75T is ~94x trailing sales. For scale, that's the same nosebleed
multiple AVGO trades at on *earnings* — except this is on revenue. Morningstar, one of the few independents to publish a number, pegs fair value at ~$780B — under half the ask. ARK is far more bullish. That's not a tight range. That's a coin flip dressed as a consensus.
🚨 The structure matters more than the story. Fixed price means no range to gauge demand — you're told the number, not asked. Dual-class shares leave Musk with 82%+ voting control; Class A holders get the economics, not the steering wheel. And the insider lockup expires around December — the first window where private holders and employees can sell. Morningstar literally calls that the "Max Q"
moment of maximum pressure.
The asymmetric read: I separate the company from the entry. SpaceX the business — Starlink at 9M+ users, Starship, the launch monopoly — is extraordinary. But "great company" and "great entry at 94x sales on day one" are different questions, and only one of them is on the table this week.
The history of mega-IPOs is unkind to people who bought the open and kind to people who waited for the lockup to clear. I'm not requesting shares at $135. I'm watching for December.
The hype is the rocket. The work is the multiple.
#spaceX #ipo #stockmarket #NYSE
@Forbes https://t.co/sJp9wdnYKS
🟡 The biggest IPO in history prices next week. Before you tap "request shares," read the gap.
$SPCX — SpaceX — opens its roadshow Thursday. Fixed price $135, ~555.6M shares, ~$75B raise. That's a ~$1.75T valuation, more than triple the largest US IPO ever. Retail can request shares through
Robinhood. So this is a real decision for a lot of people this week.
Here's the part the excitement skips over:
📊 The valuation gap is not subtle. On 2025 revenue of ~$18.7B, $1.75T is ~94x trailing sales. For scale, that's the same nosebleed
multiple AVGO trades at on *earnings* — except this is on revenue. Morningstar, one of the few independents to publish a number, pegs fair value at ~$780B — under half the ask. ARK is far more bullish. That's not a tight range. That's a coin flip dressed as a consensus.
🚨 The structure matters more than the story. Fixed price means no range to gauge demand — you're told the number, not asked. Dual-class shares leave Musk with 82%+ voting control; Class A holders get the economics, not the steering wheel. And the insider lockup expires around December — the first window where private holders and employees can sell. Morningstar literally calls that the "Max Q"
moment of maximum pressure.
The asymmetric read: I separate the company from the entry. SpaceX the business — Starlink at 9M+ users, Starship, the launch monopoly — is extraordinary. But "great company" and "great entry at 94x sales on day one" are different questions, and only one of them is on the table this week.
The history of mega-IPOs is unkind to people who bought the open and kind to people who waited for the lockup to clear. I'm not requesting shares at $135. I'm watching for December.
The hype is the rocket. The work is the multiple.
#spaceX #ipo #stockmarket #NYSE
@YahooFinance https://t.co/sJp9wdnYKS
🟡 The biggest IPO in history prices next week. Before you tap "request shares," read the gap.
$SPCX — SpaceX — opens its roadshow Thursday. Fixed price $135, ~555.6M shares, ~$75B raise. That's a ~$1.75T valuation, more than triple the largest US IPO ever. Retail can request shares through
Robinhood. So this is a real decision for a lot of people this week.
Here's the part the excitement skips over:
📊 The valuation gap is not subtle. On 2025 revenue of ~$18.7B, $1.75T is ~94x trailing sales. For scale, that's the same nosebleed
multiple AVGO trades at on *earnings* — except this is on revenue. Morningstar, one of the few independents to publish a number, pegs fair value at ~$780B — under half the ask. ARK is far more bullish. That's not a tight range. That's a coin flip dressed as a consensus.
🚨 The structure matters more than the story. Fixed price means no range to gauge demand — you're told the number, not asked. Dual-class shares leave Musk with 82%+ voting control; Class A holders get the economics, not the steering wheel. And the insider lockup expires around December — the first window where private holders and employees can sell. Morningstar literally calls that the "Max Q"
moment of maximum pressure.
The asymmetric read: I separate the company from the entry. SpaceX the business — Starlink at 9M+ users, Starship, the launch monopoly — is extraordinary. But "great company" and "great entry at 94x sales on day one" are different questions, and only one of them is on the table this week.
The history of mega-IPOs is unkind to people who bought the open and kind to people who waited for the lockup to clear. I'm not requesting shares at $135. I'm watching for December.
The hype is the rocket. The work is the multiple.
#spaceX #ipo #stockmarket #NYSE
@FinanceLancelot https://t.co/sJp9wdnYKS
🟡 The biggest IPO in history prices next week. Before you tap "request shares," read the gap.
$SPCX — SpaceX — opens its roadshow Thursday. Fixed price $135, ~555.6M shares, ~$75B raise. That's a ~$1.75T valuation, more than triple the largest US IPO ever. Retail can request shares through
Robinhood. So this is a real decision for a lot of people this week.
Here's the part the excitement skips over:
📊 The valuation gap is not subtle. On 2025 revenue of ~$18.7B, $1.75T is ~94x trailing sales. For scale, that's the same nosebleed
multiple AVGO trades at on *earnings* — except this is on revenue. Morningstar, one of the few independents to publish a number, pegs fair value at ~$780B — under half the ask. ARK is far more bullish. That's not a tight range. That's a coin flip dressed as a consensus.
🚨 The structure matters more than the story. Fixed price means no range to gauge demand — you're told the number, not asked. Dual-class shares leave Musk with 82%+ voting control; Class A holders get the economics, not the steering wheel. And the insider lockup expires around December — the first window where private holders and employees can sell. Morningstar literally calls that the "Max Q"
moment of maximum pressure.
The asymmetric read: I separate the company from the entry. SpaceX the business — Starlink at 9M+ users, Starship, the launch monopoly — is extraordinary. But "great company" and "great entry at 94x sales on day one" are different questions, and only one of them is on the table this week.
The history of mega-IPOs is unkind to people who bought the open and kind to people who waited for the lockup to clear. I'm not requesting shares at $135. I'm watching for December.
The hype is the rocket. The work is the multiple.
#spaceX #ipo #stockmarket #NYSE
@CNBC https://t.co/sJp9wdnYKS
🟡 The biggest IPO in history prices next week. Before you tap "request shares," read the gap.
$SPCX — SpaceX — opens its roadshow Thursday. Fixed price $135, ~555.6M shares, ~$75B raise. That's a ~$1.75T valuation, more than triple the largest US IPO ever. Retail can request shares through
Robinhood. So this is a real decision for a lot of people this week.
Here's the part the excitement skips over:
📊 The valuation gap is not subtle. On 2025 revenue of ~$18.7B, $1.75T is ~94x trailing sales. For scale, that's the same nosebleed
multiple AVGO trades at on *earnings* — except this is on revenue. Morningstar, one of the few independents to publish a number, pegs fair value at ~$780B — under half the ask. ARK is far more bullish. That's not a tight range. That's a coin flip dressed as a consensus.
🚨 The structure matters more than the story. Fixed price means no range to gauge demand — you're told the number, not asked. Dual-class shares leave Musk with 82%+ voting control; Class A holders get the economics, not the steering wheel. And the insider lockup expires around December — the first window where private holders and employees can sell. Morningstar literally calls that the "Max Q"
moment of maximum pressure.
The asymmetric read: I separate the company from the entry. SpaceX the business — Starlink at 9M+ users, Starship, the launch monopoly — is extraordinary. But "great company" and "great entry at 94x sales on day one" are different questions, and only one of them is on the table this week.
The history of mega-IPOs is unkind to people who bought the open and kind to people who waited for the lockup to clear. I'm not requesting shares at $135. I'm watching for December.
The hype is the rocket. The work is the multiple.
#spaceX #ipo #stockmarket #NYSE
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