Josh Wright

iCIMS, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve alum. Views are my own, likes ≠ my views.

[Josh Wright @JWrightStuff]

Econ folks, don't miss out! Most of these Virtual Training Projects are in bioinformatics, but there's a stellar one for working with Raj Chetty's data on social mobility.

Great way to practice R, as well as study inequality.

[Paul Scheid @paulscheid]

Research Staff, Postdocs, and Graduate Students: we’ve posted our Virtual Training Project schedule for January and February 😀.

Topics include: Single-cell Transcriptomics + Lung Cell or Habenula Neuron Characterization...

https://t.co/NGShvUHMow

[Josh Wright @JWrightStuff]

@ENPancotti @pearkes ... and the Asian rate (6.7%) has crossed over the white rate, reflecting Asian employment in Covid-sensitive service jobs.

There's a wake-up call here not just about the overall level of un/employment by group, but also about their exposure to different risks & opportunities.

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

This is the real problem. Temporary unemployment (de facto furloughs) continue to tumble.

Permanent layoffs still elevated and actually ticked a little higher.

https://t.co/4r7mBprCoE

[Josh Wright @JWrightStuff]

Meanwhile, leisure/hospitality nearly flatlined: +31k, down from +270k in Oct.

[Josh Wright @JWrightStuff]

Nonfarm payrolls grew by only 245k in November, ~half of expected number.

Unemployment rate down to 6.7% from 6.9%, as expected.

[Josh Wright @JWrightStuff]

OTOH, transportation/warehousing popped, from 62k to 145k. But that's only a partial offset for retail trade.

[Josh Wright @JWrightStuff]

Job growth is slowing while Black unemployment remains (barely) in the double digits.

Black: 10.3%
Hispanic or Latino: 8.4%
Asian: 6.7%
White: 5.9%

[Beinecke Library @BeineckeLibrary]

"The great privilege of the Americans does not simply consist in their being more enlightened than other nations, but in their being able to repair the faults they may commit." Tocqueville, Democracy in America, 1835, translated by Henry Reeve ... https://t.co/JiJ9c7TZjC

[Josh Wright @JWrightStuff]

Notably: long-term unemployment is rising (up by over 1 million in just one month) and employment of college-educated workers has fallen for two straight months as parents drop out to provide home-schooling and child care.

[Josh Wright @JWrightStuff]

My latest: October Employment = Beating a Low Bar

The pace of payroll recovery is underwhelming and the details indicate growing cause for concern.

https://t.co/EtwLz4Jdp8 via @LinkedIn

[Josh Wright @JWrightStuff]

"Reverse check mark" or "reverse ballot mark"?

[Steve Rattner @SteveRattner]

Here’s where the recovery stands:
It’s not a ‘V’
46% of of virus-related job losses have yet to be recovered
10.1M Ams remain displaced
Virus cases are surging again
Fiscal support exhausted

[Josh Wright @JWrightStuff]

@byHeatherLong ~half govt' losses were state & local education jobs

[Josh Wright @JWrightStuff]

(The loss of education jobs is a key point in favor of federal stimulus for state and local governments)

[Josh Wright @JWrightStuff]

Oct. payrolls: +638k, beating expectations, roughly same as Sept.

Unemployment rate: 6.9%, far below 7.7% expectations

[Josh Wright @JWrightStuff]

Government payroll changes:

Federal (ex USPS) -138k (primarily Census-related)

State & local education -130k

State & local other +29.6k

Federal U.S. Postal Service -100

[Josh Wright @JWrightStuff]

The underemployment rate fell to 12.1%, but that's a significant slowing in the pace of improvement.

Oct. 12.1% (-0.7%)
Sept. 12.8% (-1.4%)
Aug. 14.2% (-2.3%)
July 16.5% (-1.5%)
June 18.0%