Jac

Amateur trader here to learn. Sharing ideas occasionally. Bring back nuanced thinking.

[Jac @Jaacpot]

Not sure Blue Origin will be able to spin a victory lap outta this one like they did with the failed $ASTS launch. Lol

[NSF - NASASpaceflight.com @NASASpaceflight]

Blue Origin's New Glenn just blew up at LC-36 while attempting to Static Fire ahead of NG-4.

https://t.co/tANS0dWyIH

[PsyopAnime @PsyopAnime]

breaking: The Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen!

[Nick Cruse 🥋 @SocialistMMA]

So let me get this straight, it was revealed that the United States ruling class is full of child torturing pedophiles and the reaction of the American people wasn’t to immediately revolt, but to vote out Thomas Massie who helped expose the scandal

America is cooked 💀

[Prepared Remarks @P_Remarks]

New study finds that Gen Z prefers buying levered semiconductor ETFs over having sex

(Per @Yale)

[Anp🅰️nman @spacanpanman]

$ASTS: 🚨🇺🇸 FCC GRANTS AST SPACEMOBILE FULL COMMERCIAL APPROVAL FOR PLANNED 248 SATELLITE CONSTELLATION

[Timothy B. Lee @binarybits]

This essay by @alexolegimas is the best thing I've ever read on why AGI won't lead to mass unemployment. A compelling argument backed up by substantial empirical data.

[Reid Wiseman @astro_reid]

Only one chance in this lifetime…

Like watching sunset at the beach from the most foreign seat in the cosmos, I couldn’t resist a cell phone video of Earthset. You can hear the shutter on the Nikon as @Astro_Christina is hammering away on 3-shot brackets and capturing those exceptional Earthset photos through the 400mm lens. @AstroVicGlover was in window 3 watching with @Astro_Jeremy next to him.

I could barely see the Moon through the docking hatch window but the iPhone was the perfect size to catch the view…this is uncropped, uncut with 8x zoom which is quite comparable to the view of the human eye. Enjoy.

[Blue Origin @blueorigin]

BlueBird is on board! @AST_SpaceMobile's satellite is now integrated with our NG-3 launch vehicle. Next up: rollout for hotfire.

[sgp @stogolp]

Hey @ChickfilA Open the F*ckin’ restaurant on Sundays, you crazy b*stards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah

[Anp🅰️nman @spacanpanman]

🇺🇸 This is American culture and mentality

[BSF 🇬🇧🐀 @BSF42069]

We’ve come a long way

[The Lincoln Project @ProjectLincoln]

WATCH: The White House took down this video, but we still have it.

Trump: We can't take care of daycare. We're a big country. We're fighting wars. It's not possible for us to take care of daycare, Medicaid, Medicare, all these things.

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

I think way too many ppl are delusional about this idea of letting Iran control the SoH, having the US pull out, and just letting Iran set up a toll booth.

Where does Saudi’s power actually come from? It’s not just because they’re rich. Their entire influence comes from being the world’s only swing Producer. We need oil, and Saudi controls that market.

If Iran takes over the SoH, they become the most powerful, one of a kind Global Swing Producer in history.

If they don’t like the oil price? They can just "adjust" the traffic in a strait that handles ~20mb/d to swing prices however they want.

If the UAE gets on Iran’s bad side? "No passage for UAE tankers." If Kuwait tries to build a bypass? "Fine, the SoH is closed starting today. Let’s see if you can finish that bypass—which takes years—without making a single dime."

By letting Iran control that flow, the US is effectively making Iran the ultimate energy gatekeeper. The entire regional hegemony shifts to Iran. Saudi and the UAE lose everything.

Think about it—if you were MBS, would you let this happen? Let’s say the US pulls out this week. The US started this mess, and now the GCC has to just sit there and watch their power handed over to Iran?

Let me give you a reality check for Americans: Imagine Mexico now controls the North American continent.

"Want to fly to the UK? Get Mexico’s permission. Want to import jet fuel from Asia? Pay Mexico a toll and take the route they tell you to.

Did you dare to criticize Mexico? Now, no container ships can enter your waters. You can’t say a word against the great President of Mexico."

It sounds like a fantasy, but that’s the reality for the GCC. If the US tries to run away? If I were the GCC, I wouldn’t let them leave. I’d grab them by the hair and drag them back to clean up the mess they made.

I’ve said before that this is an existential issue for Iran and Israel. Well, Iranian control of the SoH is an existential issue for every other GCC nation.

And the GCC has leverage. They have massive wealth invested in the West, huge U.S. asset holdings, decades of lobbying networks, and they are the biggest donors for Trump’s terms.

And of course they have oil. Do you really think Brent would stay below $100/bbl if the GCC teamed up and cut just 3mb/d for six months?

Even the most optimistic guy knows the answer is zero chance. They don't even need a fancy excuse: "Oh, since the US gave up on us and Iran owns the SoH, it's not safe. We have to cut production. Sorry!"

Within months, the US would be begging to come back. It’s just pushing the Middle East into an even bigger pit of fire.

Thanks for listening to my TED Talk :)

#oott #iran

[BreakThrough News @BTnewsroom]

Rubio: Imagine if Iran funded the well-being of its people, rather than its military

Trump, two days later: We can’t fund daycare or Medicaid, we need more money for our military

[Slim @onu_slim]

Your parents are getting older at 75 and they haven’t told you how scared they are.

They are not dying, or becoming a problem, or of being the reason you’re stressed, the reason your money is tight, the reason your patience runs out. They watch you build your life and they quietly pray they are not in the way of it.

That silence you mistake for peace, it isn’t always peace. Sometimes it’s a 70-year-old man swallowing his needs because he doesn’t want to be a burden to the child he suffered to raise, sometimes it’s a 68-year-old woman who once moved mountains for her family, now unable to move without help, smiling so you don’t worry.

They have already grieved the version of themselves that was strong, they did that alone, quietly, at night.

What they have left is you.

Not your money, not your success, you. Your voice on the phone, your presence in the room, the way you look at them like they still matter, like they are not just a responsibility to manage but a person to love.

One day there will be no one left to call you by the name they gave you, in the voice that first said it, no one who remembers who you were before the world got to you.

That day is coming, you don’t know when.

So before it arrives, go home, sit down, put the phone away, let them talk.

The chair will empty, make sure you left nothing unsaid.

Goodnight

[Ehrmantraut Capital @EhrmantrautCap_]

Life in 2024, when $NVDA was up 3% every day, Sleepy Joe slept through market hours and we didn't have to worry about the US president causing tariff wars or a global energy crisis:

[Peter B @realpeteyb123]

I’m fucking tired.

I’m tired of this shit. I’m tired of giving my loyalty and getting lied to again. I swear on everything, this is the last time I give that kind of loyalty away.

I don’t even want to write this. I’d rather shut this account down, disappear into the Mediterranean, sit in my villa, drink local wine, watch my kids grow up, smoke a cigarette, and forget all of this.

But I can’t.

I’ve done well for myself. I don’t need this. I stay because I care, and I’ll stay a little longer for my kids. But I’m fucking tired.

I’m tired because my fellow Americans are struggling. They can’t buy homes. They can’t go out. They can’t live the life they were promised.

And we sit there and call them lazy.

That’s bullshit.

We send our money everywhere else. We fight wars for others. We fund everything except our own people.

We could have built something great here. For us. For our kids. For generations.

Instead, we’re squandering it.
Like we have for so many decades now.

Weak leadership. Corruption. People who are easily manipulated. And a population that keeps buying into it.

Enough.

Enough of this shit.

[Just Another Pod Guy @TMTLongShort]

How I frame the current Iran op:

A) this is about China - it’s cheaper to demonstrate to Xi that the day after a TW invasion his economy will be choked off from energy vs losing American lives protecting the island

B) there was Gulf state buy in - specifically Saudi and UAE. This included providing capital to backstop USD assets which are trumps Achilles heel

C) the objective is to have control of Hormuz at the end of this - specifically veto power that doesn’t just require a parked carrier which in a conflict China can lob a thousand missiles at. You need land-based American controlled assets there permanently. Either actual Americans or proxies via Israeli or Saudi forces.

D) this is not going to be Iraq or Afghanistan - there is a wide spectrum between full regime change and nation building vs small contingents of special forces taking modest strategic points on the strait and carpet bombing everything close enough to put those troops at risk

E) regime change isn’t a certainty but higher likelihood than consensus - I’d put it now at 50/50. Again this assumes no boots on ground in Tehran. “Experts” saying this is impossible lack imagination and understanding of how technology has shifted over the last two decades.

F) this is also political theatre - both for the American people who lost the appetite for forever wars and who need to fully internalize that Europeans are worthless as allies in their current form as well as the Europeans themselves who need to be reminded how much pain a hostile America can inflict on them if they decide China is their preferred option

G) Russia-Ukraine is closely connected to all of this. On one hand Trump can accel Russian production degradation by feeding UKR intelligence on Russian refinery capacity deeper inland while at the same time can completely pull back from supporting Ukraine as part of the aforementioned political theatre… “this is not our fight” - this is why Trump didn’t ask Ukraine for help on drones. It’s a card that can be played in multiple directions.

H) analysts are not wrong when they freak out about global energy prices risk. Analysts are wrong to tie that back to midterms and American voters. Trump will use executive powers to manipulate prices at the pump if necessary.

I) liquidity is decreasing globally just as it’s about to increase domestically. The U.S. via swap lines and control over institutions like the IMF is the liquidity provider of last resort. Kind of like when your insurance provider starts setting Forrest fires in your neighborhood and then immediately jacks up the premiums you have to pay to protect your house.

J) remove the words “fair” and “moral” from your vocabulary. We are firmly in a world of realpolitik and Americas don’t give a flying fuck if the rest of the world burns. Hegemony or bust.

K) there is a dual benefit of this war being an advertisement of US military prowess and a weakening of the veneer that China has closed the gap with the US systems. This impacts how countries will act in the coming days and which sphere they opt in to.

L) trumps tolerance for dead American soldiers is higher than you think. Trumps tolerance for lower stocks is higher than you think. Doesn’t mean he won’t take steps to mitigate both. You don’t fight for hegemony without being certain you can handle punches to the face.

M) terror attacks on the US will be the final step for Iran before regime change. It’s higher prob than consensus thinks but it’s also not a certainty because Americans are bloodthirsty when the homeland is touched and it’s a door you can’t walk back out of. European & UAE terror attacks likely come first.

N) this operation has gone better than any reasonable analyst would have predicted. Panicans are starting from the premise that every person in Washington is retarded and Trump walked into a trap with the assumption that not a single barrel of oil would be lost or soldier scratched.

Retardation 🫡

[signüll @signulll]

america is one of very few countries that has even tried to build a multiethnic democracy at scale, & the fact that it has a visible, loud, ongoing discourse about racism is actually evidence of relatively low tolerance for it compared to countries where racial hierarchy is just... ambient & unremarked upon.

japan (lol very obvious now), korea, much of europe, india's caste system, han chauvinism in china, ethnic dynamics across the gulf states.. most of these societies don't even have the vocabulary for the conversation america tortures itself over daily.

america is quite literally is one of the least if not the least racist countries on the planet, & it's not even close.

[peepeepoopoo @DeepDishEnjoyer]

2 weeks to stop the spread