The Bank of Japan has raised rates to 1.25%, the highest since 1995. It’s also the sixth hike since Japan ended its negative interest rate policy in March 2024. So why did the yen fall?
① The hike was already priced in. The decision met expectations. Without an extra surprise, there may be little reason for fresh buying.
② The outlook for further hikes fell short of some investors’ expectations. The vote was split, leaving the market concerned that the BOJ would remain cautious about raising rates further.
③ The US is raising rates too. Higher rates in Japan don’t necessarily mean the gap with US rates will narrow quickly. Dollar assets still offer attractive interest returns.
It’s like a company reporting higher profits, only for its share price to fall. If the market was expecting more, even good news can trigger a sell-off.
@DavidInglesTV How high is the bar for “really understanding”? If it means explaining every AI output, even 50 may be too many. My bigger concern: as AI sounds more like an expert, do we become less likely to question its answers?