Jackson Martin

Hobbyist Election Forecaster, NFL appreciator, and Warhammer enjoyer. Particularly interested in Kansas Politics.

[Jackson Martin @JacksonMartinKS]

#KSLEG 2026 state House Forecast update.

There is a 87.4% Chance that the GOP supermajority breaks, with Democrats favored to flip 10 seats. Still a large number of close seats.

[Chaz Nuttycombe @ChazNuttycombe]

Good morning. Today we have our state government forecasts out in HI, IN, KY, ME, MD, and most importantly, AK.

DEMs are projected to gain 246 state legislative seats in states with a @StateNavigate forecast. In 2018, they gained 217 seats.

https://t.co/fSYOd3MhG2

[Jackson Martin @JacksonMartinKS]

With only this information, how would you expect this state house seat to vote in the 2026 midterm election?

[Jackson Martin @JacksonMartinKS]

@platinombrero Yeah, winning in 2032 in what will likely be the end of a D presidential term would be very difficult to say the least.

[Jackson Martin @JacksonMartinKS]

I've been using the fiftyplusone generic ballot average for the Kansas State House forecast but I don't think it's updating to what polling is showing fast enough

[State Navigate @StateNavigate]

🚨FORECAST LAUNCHES🚨

Today, we are launching our Governor and state legislative forecasts in AL, CA, CT, DE, ID and IL.

https://t.co/rhAuJEssKX

[Jackson Martin @JacksonMartinKS]

@drunkelections Just realized Trump endorsing Kris Kobach against Jerry Moran is quite literally about as much of a 1 to 1 comparison to what's going on in a Texas as you can get.

[Jackson Martin @JacksonMartinKS]

Sharice Davids vs whoever primaries Jerry Moran is gonna be crazy in 2028

[Jackson Martin @JacksonMartinKS]

@drunkelections Doubtful tbh, he just has Cornyn vibes to me. Really, if the GOP draws out KS03 I expect Davids would run for US Senate regardless of who the GOP nominee is

[Jackson Martin @JacksonMartinKS]

@drunkelections I don't regularly attend services there, but I occasionally go with my family for holiday services. Even from the few times I've attended those I'd left with a very positive impression of him. It's part of why I got the feeling he'd be an incredibly strong candidate

[Jackson Martin @JacksonMartinKS]

@nnjpolitics Is that Lean R KS03? I seem to have forgotten 538 ever had it there

[Jackson Martin @JacksonMartinKS]

Whatever's going on with Josh Simmons is weird. Last year it was fine, personal stuff happens. This happening a second time is extremely concerning.

[Bobby Burack @burackbobby_]

"The Chiefs have deduced that rampant speculation about Josh Simmons' character is less damaging than telling the truth about his situation."

My column on why the Chiefs owe it to Simmons and their fans to explain or remove him from the active roster.
https://t.co/QLECFN2TRC

[Jackson Martin @JacksonMartinKS]

@cnelsonsdks I mean maybe that's their thinking, but I really don't think there's many if any voters who wouldn't already turnout for Republicans that would do so now just because they're revoking protections for LGBTQ people

[Jackson Martin @JacksonMartinKS]

Genuinely baffling how this administration not only keeps doing stuff like this, but especially so that they're doing this right before a midterm election they're projected to get blown out in. Do they think this helps their chances somehow?

[The Hill @thehill]

Education Department formally rescinds Title IX protections for LGBTQ students

https://t.co/2I4a4dPXkE

[Jackson Martin @JacksonMartinKS]

Again, just super baffling to do something like this right before a midterm election.

You're not going to motivate people to turnout purely because they have a dislike for these majors, but you're certainly going to motivate people with these majors to turnout.

[The New Republic @newrepublic]

Trump is banning students majoring in degrees that don’t make enough money from taking out college loans. Degrees for social work, art, religious studies, teaching aides, and music will be hit the hardest. https://t.co/6tV30STfyc

[Jackson Martin @JacksonMartinKS]

I don't really think mail-in vote analysis will translate to predicting the general all that well.

I haven't seen much talk that lots of DEMs who previously voted by mail are gonna switch to in-person methods due to the additional focus and recent attacks on mail-in voting.

[Jackson Martin @JacksonMartinKS]

A former KU Quarterback is going to start an NFL game, I never thought I'd see it

[Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter]

Buccaneers QB Jalon Daniels now moves into a starting role.

[Jackson Martin @JacksonMartinKS]

@electionsjack Somewhat subjectivley, it seems that Republicans aren't really punished by voters for stuff like this because it's essentially expected as their baseline.

In general I think voters hold a double standard on constitutional hardball and only punish DEMs for it.

[State Navigate @StateNavigate]

🚨LIVE POLL🚨

At 12PM, we're polling West Virginia State Senate District 1, a Trump +39 district that our forecast calls a Likely Republican race.

Delegate Shawn Fluharty (D-Wheeling) is running against freshman incumbent Laura Wikam Chapman (R).

https://t.co/eMiCIusjQH

[Jackson Martin @JacksonMartinKS]

They need to let NFL coaches challenge pass interference calls. Really coaches should be able to challenge any ruling on the field, I don't get why it's not allowed for specific instances.

[Chaz Nuttycombe @ChazNuttycombe]

Coming soon.