Jackson Hannan

Chair of Data and Technology for the Madison (AL) County Democratic Party. Degrees in Economics and Mathematics.

[Jackson Hannan @electionsjack]

Now RE-introducing the NEW AND IMPROVED 2026 Alabama Legislative Forecast!

https://t.co/FlOvVVqEkU

[Jackson Hannan @electionsjack]

Current AL-02 was Jones +12.

I'll be interested to see what the governor's race looks like here.

[Jackson Hannan @electionsjack]

2017 Senate Special Election by current congressional districts:

[Jackson Hannan @electionsjack]

Lyon please lock in

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

Michigan Election Night Preview (8pm, 9pm polls close)

Operations

Michigan counts votes very slowly. Fewer than half of all votes may be reported by midnight, and a substantial number may still be outstanding at 3 a.m. Detroit often does not finish their Election Night reporting until around 9 a.m., and that doesn't even include ballots counted after Election Night in the trail period. Absentee ballots and votes from more Democratic-leaning areas often are counted last, making results in the early morning look more Republican than the final outcome.

It’s crucial to keep this Republican mirage in mind during the early morning hours. Even if El-Sayed trails by 2���3 points at 3 a.m., he could still be favored to win, depending on where the remaining votes are coming from. If they are concentrated in areas that historically report after 3 a.m. as we expect, he would be favored to make up about 3 points. Democratic areas in Wayne, Ingham, Saginaw, Kalamazoo, and Washtenaw counties, along with Flint, often report last. Even at 6 a.m., votes from Detroit and other late-reporting areas could still be outstanding and help El-Sayed gain ground.

Key races

Michigan Senate: Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R). Michigan was Trump+1.4 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Lean Democratic, favoring El-Sayed to win by 3.3 points. El-Sayed, a progressive, defeated Haley Stevens in a contentious primary. Rogers, a former representative, narrowly lost to Elissa Slotkin in 2024, even as Trump won the state.

Michigan Governor: Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R). Michigan was Trump+1.4 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Likely Democratic, favoring Benson to win by 8.6 points. Benson is favored to succeed Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer, as Democrats expect the blue environment to help them hang on to the governor’s mansion in a state Trump won. James, a current representative, lost two statewide races in 2018 and 2020 and is hoping for a better result on his third try.

MI-04: Bill Huizenga (R) faces Sean McCann (D). The district was Trump+5.5 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Tilt Republican, favoring Huizenga to win by 2.2 points. Huizenga has historically been a strong candidate, running more than 6 points ahead of Trump in 2024. However, he faces a challenge in this western Michigan district, which includes Kalamazoo and is likely to vote for Benson at the top of the ticket. He will likely need to outrun James to keep his seat.

MI-07: William Lawrence (D) faces Tom Barrett (R). The district was Trump+1.3 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Tilt Democratic, favoring Lawrence to win by 2 points. In this district centered on Lansing and the surrounding area, Republican incumbent Tom Barrett is hoping to hold on even as Benson is heavily favored to win it at the top of the ticket. He is hoping that progressive insurgent William Lawrence will prove weak electorally, giving him an opening to win over swing voters. Lawrence, and national progressives, are hoping that a resounding victory in the seat will prove progressives can flip seats from red to blue and run close to the top of the ballot while doing it.

MI-10: Christina Hines (D) faces Mike Bouchard Jr. (R). The district was Trump+6.5 in 2024. VoteHub rates this race Lean Democratic, favoring Hines to win by 2.8 points. Hines is hoping to flip this open seat centered on Macomb County, a working-class suburban area outside Detroit. Our forecast currently has both Benson and Rogers winning the district, meaning the House race may come down to candidate quality.

[Marginal Revolution @MargRev]

Errors in the research of Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman https://t.co/Fjp3tTBV8e

[Jackson Hannan @electionsjack]

@VealeSpencer @LinkofSunshine "We don't have to worry about the deficit if we do this One Easy Trick" is very politically useful, so I imagine that MMT will have an outsized influence in years to come, but it is nevertheless crank nonsense. It would be convenient for me and my politics if it weren't.

[Jackson Hannan @electionsjack]

The IGM Forum is fairly ideologically diverse. It isn't so much a "school of thought" that rejects MMT so much as it is individual professionals whose job it is to best appraise which models fit the available data.

MMT is not a model that best fits the available data and is therefore rejected by the vast majority of individuals within academic economics 🤷‍♂️

[Jane Coaston 🏔️ @janecoaston]

if anyone knows the words "quitting" and "Auburn" it's Tommy Tuberville

[Jackson Hannan @electionsjack]

@PoliwaveAU Entire manifesto feels like it was designed to appeal to me specifically. Extraordinary that they're polling this high.

[Jackson Hannan @electionsjack]

@PoliwaveAU If TOP gets seats I'm not gonna be normal about it.

They're just the perfect political party.

[Jackson Hannan @electionsjack]

@LyxPar @LinkofSunshine I hate to break it to you, but MMT is indeed crank nonsense wholly unsupported by academic economists across the board. This is in fact something there's a large degree of unanimity about.

I'm sorry you had to find out that way.

https://t.co/ws4tgwdrCL

[State Navigate @StateNavigate]

We're now getting early voter data from the West Virginia SOS; here are some maps of early in-person voting by HD/SD. Compared with registered voters in WV, there's currently a 15-point statewide shift to DEMs. More data/comparisons to follow in this thread as we dissect.

[James🗳 @_fat_ugly_rat_]

Completed turnout numbers for day 9!

[Andrew Sneed for Congress @ASforCongress]

Two very different choices for North Alabama. Vote for change November 3rd.

[Andrew Sneed for Congress @ASforCongress]

Dale says town halls are “Not for me”.

Join us for our 9th Town Hall this evening in Owens Cross Roads / Hampton Cove.

When: 6:00PM, doors open at 5:30pm.
Where: 2700 Hampton Cove Way SE, Owens Cross Roads, AL

[Dj @DjsokeSpeaking]

Here's for all age brackets instead of just 18-29

White turnout gap is still very visible in the blue ATL counties vs elsewhere, though not quite as pronounced as in the youngest age demo

[Jackson Hannan @electionsjack]

@AzelfDaGirl Many people are saying

[Chaz Nuttycombe @ChazNuttycombe]

Over the last week and a half or so, I've been hearing from several on-the-ground sources in SC about the SC US Senate race, and the closeness of the race is no surprise to them.

Long story short, Graham's campaign is run by a bunch of DC know-it-alls who not only lack experience running a campaign but have also, to say the least, shown a lack of Southern hospitality toward supporters of Graham's primary opponents.

We'll see if polling and conventional wisdom hold up, and if they do, Graham's campaign staff will be entirely to blame for a squeaker.

[Jackson Hannan @electionsjack]

Momma, we're movin' on up to the big leagues